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Bard and new AI features in Search

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Re: Bard and new AI features in Search

#851

Post by dietr1ch »

inimino wrote: post #608
deltree7 wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Delusional to think Ads work only on Keywords. Where there is human attention, there will always be ads. The more context, the better ads.

"Attention is all you need"? Joking aside, there's no reason AdWords can't become AdWordVectors and be even more effectively targeted.

How do you know it's not that way now?

Keywords will still be around at the user interface for people buying ads, they are easy to grasp. Part of the secret sauce is getting those keywords mapped into the right entities in a sort of knowledge graph of things you can spend money on that is also connected to all the content of the places you can serve ads on.

Re: Bard and new AI features in Search

#852

Post by nabakin »

tstrimple wrote: post #699
nabakin wrote: post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. If Google is able to provide better answers than the garbage websites with their SEO hacks, those garbage websites will not get clicks. I could see this improving the incentive system significantly

The incentive to what, be an unpaid content creator for Google? Search results lead to sources which land users on the content creators "property". Chat results, especially based on what we see right now, won't do that.

How can you call garbage SEO websites 'content creators'? I think we'll be better off with websites which spread knowledge for the sake of spreading knowledge. Down with ads and low quality copy-paste sites.

Re: Bard and new AI features in Search

#853

Post by MobiusHorizons »

DannyBee wrote: post #813
alfor wrote: post #808

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1- the chips are not efficient currently (graphic card reused as neural net) 10X-100X gain 2- Moore’s Laws 3- Algorithm/architecture improvement

1. Im not sure who you believe will produce these chips, or who will use them. You are correct that specialized inference chips will get you a 10x gain. So what? If you want several million of them in a datacenter, that's a tall order. That's on top of A. the hundreds of millions it will take to get a design to production. B. The complete and total lack of allocation at anybody who could make you chips, except at ver…

TSMCs earnings show a significant decrease is demand this past quarter. AMD, Nvidia, and Intel all report falling demand. There will likely be allocation of 7nm and 5nm opening up even in the near future, especially as 4nm and 3nm come online in the next few years.

Shortages of 28nm and older nodes are not indicative of other nodes, because 28nm is (or at least was) the most cost effective node per transistor, (so plenty of demand) but no new fabs are being built for that node.

Re: Bard and new AI features in Search

#854

Post by soheil »

alain94040 wrote: post #388
wiremine wrote: post #232

I agree this is bland corporate speak. But it reminded me of a question that's been floating around: A number of pundits, here on HN and elsewhere, keep referring to these large language models are "google killers." This just doesn't make sense to me. It feels like Google can easily pivot its ad engine to work with the AI-driven chat systems. It can augment answers with links to additional sources of information, be…

Those new language models are "Google killers" because they reset all the assumptions that people have made about search for several decades. Imagine that people start using those chat bots massively as a replacement for Google search. Then the notion of keyword disappears. Google AdSense becomes mostly irrelevant. Of course, Google is a giant today with a history of machine learning innovation. So they have a good c…

> AdSense becomes mostly irrelevant

Google doesn't make money with AdSense, it pays publishers with it. I agree that there won't be a need for AdSense, that just means Google gets to keep 100% of the profit instead.

No, not everyone gets a fresh start at all. To train anything close to ChatGPT you really do need to be the size of Google or Microsoft to have enough the compute power.

Re: Bard and new AI features in Search

#855

Post by ddalex »

Aachen wrote: post #847
CabSauce wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's good for users, potentially. But not good for the sites where google is sourcing the information.

I've already banned the crawler from mine for the AMP and other crap they've been pulling. If you want to get more complete results, you'll need to use another search engine, which felt like the only thing in my power that I could actually do about their shenanigans. Now I'm glad I took this decision a few years ago: they've already got a search monopoly, but not being able to copy my content to further increase it?…

This seems like a personal dislike stance rather then principle, which of course you should fully take. But do you mind ChatGPT learning from your website?

Re: Bard and new AI features in Search

#856

Post by janalsncm »

aardvarkr wrote: post #835
svnt wrote: post #825

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not having read the terms in any detail, I will say this: it can be very easy to not report profits for a very long time.

The point was not that the profits are long tailed but rather if openai thought there were massive future profits and the potential to become a google killer then they wouldn’t give away half of their company today for $10B.

To me, the fact that MSFT invested on these terms doesn’t mean that the financials are shaky, it means that there’s a huge first mover advantage as well as a huge start up cost. OpenAI could make their money back or they could get taken out back by Google if they’re bottlenecked by cash.

Re: Bard and new AI features in Search

#857

Post by Aachen »

ddalex wrote: post #855
Aachen wrote: post #847

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've already banned the crawler from mine for the AMP and other crap they've been pulling. If you want to get more complete results, you'll need to use another search engine, which felt like the only thing in my power that I could actually do about their shenanigans. Now I'm glad I took this decision a few years ago: they've already got a search monopoly, but not being able to copy my content to further increase it?…

This seems like a personal dislike stance rather then principle, which of course you should fully take. But do you mind ChatGPT learning from your website?

Not sure. I don't like that I wasn't informed of them using my content, that there are no credits of any kind. I'd enjoy knowing it was useful and this info has been accessed by a chat user, the way I do when someone visits my site. That's the whole point of making it; I have no commercial interest or expectation but I enjoy helping others.

But from a "this is stealing" type of perspective? Nah, we're all standing on the shoulders of giants and everything we do is a remix of something else we've seen. A human can read my site and take "away" the content, just not at this scale. And they're more likely than a dead chat bot to let me know if my content has been valuable to them.

Re: Bard and new AI features in Search

#858

Post by stephc_int13 »

wiremine wrote: post #232

I agree this is bland corporate speak. But it reminded me of a question that's been floating around: A number of pundits, here on HN and elsewhere, keep referring to these large language models are "google killers." This just doesn't make sense to me. It feels like Google can easily pivot its ad engine to work with the AI-driven chat systems. It can augment answers with links to additional sources of information, be…

This is not that easy. Kodak and Nokia could have pivoted as well (and boy they tried).

And this is not even a problem of scale, it is obviously difficult to change course for a giant supertanker, but the most insidious problem is the money makers inside the company, they usually have a lot of power and they won't allow anyone to butcher their margins.

Killing the cash cow is difficult. I don't see Google taking the risk.

Re: Bard and new AI features in Search

#859

Post by somenameforme »

cromwellian wrote: post #831
somenameforme wrote: post #822

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would they? An array of a million of these machines would cost $4 billion at consumer retail prices. That's 1.4% of Google's annual revenue for one-off bulk cost. The operational cost, at consumer retail electric using current inflated levels, was a small fraction of a cent per query. This is ignoring economy of scale, better electric pricing, caching, etc.

Where are you getting a CPU + RAM + RTX 3090 for $1k? To even install a million of these machines, you'd have to build a new datacenter, the capital costs are going to be beyond just the wholesale price of GPU boards, and you'll have to hire a ton of datacenter technicians. But leaving that aside, look at OpenAI's pricing. $.02/1K tokens. Let's say the average query would be 20 tokens, so you'd get 50 queries/$.02 =…

You can get an RTX 3090 for really cheap now a days. But in hindsight that might not be entirely reasonable because you would need a motherboard that could support a 4x setup, as well as a reasonable power supply. But the cost there is still going to be in the same ballpark, so I don't think it changes much.

That said I do agree with your final conclusion. Bigger is not necessarily better in neural networks, and I also expect to see requirements rapidly decline. I also don't really see this as being something that's going to gets ultra-monopolized and centralized. One big difference between natural language interfaces and something like search is user expectations. With natural language the user has an expectation of a result, and if a service can't meet that expectation - then they'll go elsewhere. And I think it is literally impossible for any single service to meet the expectations of everybody.

Re: Bard and new AI features in Search

#860

Post by ricardo81 »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #304

Question for AI experts out there: ChatGPT is awesome, but it is obviously hamstrung by the fact that it crawled the web at the end of 2021, so all of its data is essentially "frozen" and it doesn't "know" of any topics that occurred after 2021. Seems to me like the next "holy grail" in large language models is building a model that can be continually updated. If Google can achieve that, I think they could leapfrog O…

Reminds me of early Google and the 'Google dance', where they'd update their search results once a month or so with its recomputed Pagerank. Nowadays there's no particular update moment.
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