Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces • Hacker News Board

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#851

Post by hutrdvnj » Fri, Feb 25, 2022, 9:09 AM UTC

dtx1 wrote: post #839

hef19898 wrote: post #758

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We do have US nukes stationed in Germany for that very reason. rather old tech nukes, but still. This gives Germany a seat at the NATO table about nuclear strategy. If push comes to shove, German Tornado fighter jets are going to carry those nukes into combat.

Just another cowardly work around. If we want to live under the protection of weapons of mass destruction and the means of a global nuclear holocaust than we should take on that responsibility ourselves instead of delegating it to the US, Britain and France.

What do you suggest? ICBM launch silos in Germany and hypersonic missile launchers?

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#852

Post by hutrdvnj » Fri, Feb 25, 2022, 9:14 AM UTC

anamax wrote: post #775

afterburner wrote: post #763

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NATO is an agreement to initiate MAD if needed. That's the point of NATO.

Do you really think that the US will nuke Russia to protect Poland or Germany?

The US has thousands of US soldiers in EU NATO states, do you think US will just sit there and talk about financial sanctions while Putin kills US troops in Europe?

By the way Germany also has nukes, not their own ones, but they are not just there for fun.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#853

Post by mcv » Fri, Feb 25, 2022, 9:17 AM UTC

beloch wrote: post #703

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

Ukraine is not a NATO member, but Poland is. If Russia attacks a member of NATO then all members of NATO are obligated to join in defence militarily . Russia can attack non-NATO countries and intimidate NATO into doing nothing, but to attack a NATO member would automatically bring the whole alliance into the war. The whole point of alliances like NATO is to prevent countries from being picked off by a bully the way U…

The US and Russia did promise to defend Ukraine against nuclear powers in exchange for Ukraine giving their nuclear weapons to Russia in 1994. Now Russia, a nuclear power and one of the signatories to that treaty, broke it by attacking Ukraine, and the US broke it by not defending Ukraine from that aggression, because Russia is waving its nukes around as a threat.

The big lesson that the US and Russia are teaching Ukraine here is that they should have never given up their nuclear weapon. This whole event is terrible for the prevention of nuclear proliferation.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#854

Post by allisdust » Fri, Feb 25, 2022, 9:19 AM UTC

Lascaille wrote: post #796

allisdust wrote: post #731

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On paper yes. They are obligated to join or whatever. In practice, the whole west has become so risk averse in last few decades, they would just fold and offer 'asylum' to the fleeing poles and making statements like doing everything in their power to avoid 'escalations'. Unfortunate reality is that the west collectively lost their balls post 9/11 due to the needless wars sapping the spirit. They would wait till its…

>On paper yes. They are obligated to join or whatever. In practice, the whole west has become so risk averse in last few decades I also thought this. Would other NATO members really step in to defend Poland? I know the treaty obliges them to, but in reality would they?

People shit on nationalism, patriotism, religion etc but in a society where these are on the decline, the will to defend others at the cost of own safety and prosperity (the so called self righteousness) will disappear. So first the nations will just fend for themselves, then the factions inside the countries and the people themselves. Unfortunately, not engaging is never a great strategy. It's a strategy that looks great but it always makes things worse. The current escalation is solely due to how weak USA looked during their hasty retreat from Afghanistan.

My guess is that Putin just wanted to scare a few people and may be annex the rebel areas. But the weak response has encouraged him to see how far this can be taken. When will the current DefCon change? He would continue till that happens. It's not because he is stupid or crazy. It's a decent strategy to see where the opponents limits for patience are. He would turn around the moment there is some ground action or strict measures like announcing a no fly zone over Ukraine enforced by NATO. Till, then the smart move would be to push forward in Ukraine.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#855

Post by bjoli » Fri, Feb 25, 2022, 9:19 AM UTC

wanda wrote: post #632

For those of you who can't wrap your heads around why Putin is invading Ukraine, I invite you to recall the invasions of Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003 by the US and its allies. While artfully justified to Western audiences at the time, they have both been subjected to intense criticism and questions of legitimacy since. In the case of Iraq, if I am not mistaken, the war was an operation to disarm a country of…

I am pretty sure this will more or less completely sever Russia from the western economy for a long time to come. The European dependence on Russian gas is going to go away quickly (or at least as quickly as these things go).

As long as China goes along with Putin's madness they will manage to shuffle along, but if these things continue I am not so sure. China loves stability and trade with Europe more than it likes the European economy becoming more self-sustained due to some ex-soviet mobster with power hunger.

I look at it this way: the Soviet Union was relevant in many ways. Not just as a military power. It was important to excel at every area. Like science, culture, sports, space travel and so on.

Today Russia has three things that makes it important: natural resources, sports (and apparently a good doping programme), and military power. They are slowly becoming irrelevant on the international scene in all other areas.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#856

Post by hutrdvnj » Fri, Feb 25, 2022, 9:21 AM UTC

gambiting wrote: post #842

Lascaille wrote: post #797

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>because yes, NATO would attack back That's what it says on paper, yes. That's the theory.

Well, if that's not the threshold uncrossable line, then there simply isn't one and all of this is completely worthless.

Exactly, then Putin himself could go to Washington kill Biden and everyone is doing nothing because of MAD. That's absurd.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#857

Post by DocTomoe » Fri, Feb 25, 2022, 9:22 AM UTC

beloch wrote: post #703

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

Ukraine is not a NATO member, but Poland is. If Russia attacks a member of NATO then all members of NATO are obligated to join in defence militarily . Russia can attack non-NATO countries and intimidate NATO into doing nothing, but to attack a NATO member would automatically bring the whole alliance into the war. The whole point of alliances like NATO is to prevent countries from being picked off by a bully the way U…

> If Russia attacks a member of NATO then all members of NATO are obligated to join in defence militarily.

That's what is commonly believed, but that belief is actually wrong - other NATO members are obligated to - and I quote directly from Article 5 here - "(...) assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, (...)"

The keywords here are "as it deems necessary" and "including the use of armed forces". There is no automatic need to send troops - if you as the attacked party think a strongly worded letter is all that is necessary, you just ask for that letter. Of course you can demand military support, but doing so takes time, and it is easy to consider a situation in which you do not have that time anymore.

For an application of that principle, see 9/11, when the US invoked Article 5, but which did not result in military action from all NATO members (several of which refused to take part in "pointless military adventures"). The US obstracized those countries, but ultimately (had to?) accept.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#858

Post by thecleaner » Fri, Feb 25, 2022, 9:22 AM UTC

0xy wrote: post #828

sakopov wrote: post #739

Russia never ceases to amaze me even after spending half of my life living there. Its massive territory extends over 8 times zones stretching over 2 continents and it has historically been incapable of governing most of it. Everything outside of Moscow and Saint Petersburg (and a few other bigger cities) is often neglected and in constant state of poverty. Geopolitical stuff aside, this incessant need to have more la…

Poverty has declined by more than 50% in the last 20 years in Russia. How does this jive with a "constant state of poverty"? When people use anecdotes like this despite the data, it often just looks to me like bashing of developing economies.

Sure. Where are you stats coming from. ?

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#859

Post by hef19898 » Fri, Feb 25, 2022, 9:25 AM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #776

hef19898 wrote: post #760

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure. But that buffer was about to join NATO. Ukraine received a guaranteed invitation, so it is only a question of when , not if . Invading Ukraine pushes that, basically inevitable, NATO border further to the West.

> But that buffer was about to join NATO. That is not correct afaik. Besides that the downsides associated with all this far outweigh the upside of where NATO's borders are.

According to Wikipedia, both Ukraine and Georgia, received invitations. Ukraine is on an Individual Partnership Action Plan (English wiki, the German says something about guaranteed invitations...). So it seems both countries have been on aclear path to membership, Ukraine at least until 2014 when Obama said they were, in fact, not. In 2019 Ukraine amended the constitution with "goal" (facilitation, prerequesites,... didn't have time to research that) of both, EU and Nato, mambership down the line. Considering the necessary military build up to pull the invasion of, and assuming such an invasion to be impossible one Ukraine is either part of the EU or NATO, "about to" seems not to far of the mark. Especially for someone playing the long game like Putin.

Usual disclaimer, I don't consider any of the above a valid reason to start a war ot interfere in othet countries.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#860

Post by godmode2019 » Fri, Feb 25, 2022, 9:27 AM UTC

EnKopVand wrote: post #742

godmode2019 wrote: post #467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure why people are down voting maybe they didn't understand the comment. It was to represent the thoughts of the general western public. 99% of normal people don't know anything about the world. Text inside quotes is how normal people think when they hear Russian forces have captured Chernobyl. Invasion aside, capturing Chernobyl is good PR. When most people think Chernobyl is already in Russia and most people t…

> 99% of normal people don't know anything about the world. Are you talking about Americans? Because I can assure you that 99% of the people in Europe knows exactly where Chernobyl is. It almost wiped out our entire continent, and it’s still an active threat that is going to be a security issue for the next thousands of years. We’re taught about it in school. Russia didn’t take it because they wanted to generate head…

My world of reference is Oceania. However I still do find it hard to believe the average person in Europe knows were Chernobyl is.

But I'm sure you are right, and I hope you are doing well in Europe given the situation.