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Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

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Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#851

Post by anm89 »

MuffinFlavored wrote: post #815
anm89 wrote: post #618

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's up what, 30 % over the last few months? The real economy didn't grow nearly that much. In terms of real value, the only way for the economy to take that degree of a hit in a day would be a natural disaster. But these numbers are mostly speculation, so yeah they can go up and down very fast minus techinal restrictions like these halts.

S&P500 has wiped out all growth from 2019 at the moment and is headed lower.

Yes, correct. I should have clarified, before things started crashing, we were up 30% in a few months.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#852

Post by danans »

bilekas wrote: post #180

Genuine question: They can just do that ? Issue a trading halt because they don't like the direction it's going ? > “There’s a reason why they have those circuit breakers -- it’s to give people time to come back from panicked feelings,” Seems strange that the market is kinda able to be manipulated like that. I'm not saying this is a bad move, just surprised that someone can do it.

> Seems strange that the market is kinda able to be manipulated like that.

You might consider it manipulation, but these circuit breakers have been in place for a long time now, IIUC ever since the major market crashes of the 80s when there was no way to slow down the drop. The idea is to potentially lessen panic selling by allowing more time for more information to come to light which might mitigate some of the volatility.

Of course, there is no guarantee that better news will surface in the meantime, but even if the eventual slide will be much larger, its better that it takes place over several days to allow counter-measures to be put into place.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#853

Post by allovernow »

rlucas wrote: post #520
allovernow wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one will be able to time this. We don't even know if this is the start of a [global?] recession or depression. If you haven't already, put your retirement into bonds and hold on. Honestly it might be a good idea to grab some cash from the bank to keep at home - bank runs are not outside the realm of possibility, although we have credit cards and other internet based payment methods now so it's probably less of a c…

Dear Lord please DO NOT put your entire retirement into bonds right now. Bond yields are at an all time low . That means prices are at an all time high. This is not the time to massively rotate into an asset class at an all-time high price due to fear/risk aversion.

Serious question, perhaps I'm misunderstanding something:

So long as bond yields are positive, they cannot depreciate in value, can they? As in if I pull out X dollars from the market and into bonds, assuming yields stay positive, I'm guaranteed X dollars out?

Or have I totally misunderstood how bonds work?

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#854

Post by semi-extrinsic »

dntbnmpls wrote: post #825
bytematic wrote: post #646

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people don't seem to understand that you don't pull all your retirement out at once, so the market going up or down doesn't really affect that

The problem is that nothing says markets will go up forever. Take japan's nikkei index. Dropped in the early 90s and is still down 50% 30 years later. Choose the "all" to see the entire chart. https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/stock-market It isn't a law of nature that the S&P or Dow has to regain its losses in X number of years. S&P can drop and stay down for decades which can absolutely affect retirees.

This is a key point. Especially if we actually start doing something about CO2 emissions, which will mean reducing energy consumption for the next couple of decades. Stock market growth has historically been tightly linked with energy consumption growth.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#855

Post by dntbnmpls »

Youden wrote: post #604
VikingCoder wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The largest daily point loss in the Dow is -1,190. Today we briefly hit -2030. The 19th largest daily percentage loss in the Dow is -7.32%. Today we briefly hit -7.9%. The 19th largest daily percentage loss in the S&P 500 is -7.18. Today we briefly hit -7.2%. If you don't classify that as a "crash," then please state your criteria for us to examine. It may not be a major crash, but it's definitely notable. https://en…

The DJIA is asinine [0], please try not to perpetuate it. Look at any other index instead. [0]: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/010917/opini...

> The DJIA is asinine

It is superficially "asinine" because it is so narrow. However, the DJIA, S&P, Russell, etc all track/correlate each other.

> Look at any other index instead.

Or better yet, inlay the graphs of DJIA, S&P, Russell, Nasdaq, etc on the same chart for comparison. You'll see that the graphs all look similar. Meaning they all go up and down at around the same times.

It would seem that the broader indexes would better reflect the market as a whole. But in the real world, DJIA does good enough a job as the S&P, Russel, etc for a bird's eye view of the market.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#856

Post by pram »

pbourke wrote: post #755
_7fvc wrote: post #740

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to subscribe to these investment talking points and believed in the US equity market. I adopted these attitudes from reading Warren Buffett, index fund, financial advice. These are sound principles. I occasionally revisit value investing, dollar-cost averaging. But times are changing. The US equity market will unlikely to deliver exceptional returns. Buffett may have a strong bias since he started his investin…

> The US equity market will unlikely to deliver exceptional returns. With each passing day in this crisis, I think you can make the opposite case. Long-term risk in equities is going down, not up, as the market falls and stocks move toward relatively underpriced from relatively overpriced. Or am I missing something? The expected long-term return from investing $1 in the stock market now vs beginning of Feb is higher,…

The stock market was moving irrationally higher since November, and were not even at 52 week lows right now. So not necessarily.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#857

Post by wycy »

caymanjim wrote: post #608
wycy wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you think about it, the whole market sort of follows these arbitrary-seeming rules. The actual prices of stocks are constantly changing 24/7/365, but the market is only open from 9:30am-4:00pm on weekdays excluding holidays.

> The actual prices of stocks are constantly changing 24/7/365 They are not. For any meaningful interpretation of "actual", the only price is the market price during trade hours. Speculative overnight agreements between private parties at agreed-upon values are contract agreements. The stock price doesn't change between market close and open.

Perhaps I should've said "actual value" rather than "actual price", but my point otherwise still stands.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#858

Post by linkregister »

narner90 wrote: post #698
pgwhalen wrote: post #479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market is still very much driven by humans; the computers just help out, to varying degrees. The idea that computers are trading unattended is a myth that I hope would die.

A lot of trading is indeed done by minimally supervised computers, i.e. a human only looks at the computer if alarm bells ring. Source: was one of those humans

How often are the models that drive algorithmic trading updated?

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#859

Post by piinthesky »

Reedx wrote: post #778
ttul wrote: post #625

I notice that there are many commenters here offering opinions on the future price of equities. Note that nobody has any idea where equity prices will be in one day, never mind one year or ten years' time. As a retail investor (i.e. not extremely rich), you can't gain any advantage over the market that overcomes your transaction costs. So relax. There's nothing to do here. If you're contributing to a retirement fund,…

To help adopt a sober approach, it's worth watching this interview with Warren Buffett who shares his thinking re: market and Coronavirus. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvEas_zZ4fM&t=21s One of the points he makes is that you should think about stocks as businesses. Instead of "I bought a stock" think "I bought a business". That puts you in a better frame of mind and perspective for the long term. i.e., You don't b…

So invest in companies that will benefit from Coronavirus. I'd probably short retirement home businesses, long on lab technology businesses and long on pension & insurance funds as it seems to kill off the elderly and sick, so their profits should increase once this has died down. Whats unknown is how low this will go. Spanish flu lasted 3years, infected 27% of the population and there was just 2billion people back then unlike today with 8billion people, better transport and higher density's of people. Off set the falls with better technology and knowledge.

So what stock do you buy and at what price, what do you short and at what price?

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#860

Post by typeformer »

thekyle wrote: post #811
brazzy wrote: post #763

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But whether you start your retirement at a time the market is down a lot or up a lot can make a surprisingly big difference on how long your money lasts, if you don't adjust your spending.

Ideally, shouldn't someone planning to retire have already moved more of their money to bonds? Then they could just withdrawal from the bonds portion of the portfolio (which is likely up right now) while the stock market recovers.

Bonds yields are the lowest they have been since the great recession.
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