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Why does Opus 5 feel worse to work with?

mun-logadan.github.io

841–850 of 915 posts

Re: Why does Opus 5 feel worse to work with?

#841

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You are expecting consistent QoS from a randomly sampled mathematical function.

Strong words coming from a blob of oxygen, carbon, and nitrogen.

That blob has been shaped by ruthless processes over 4 billion years. The process was random but it's likely the equivalent "computing" to generate it is decades or centuries ahead of our capacity to generate it.

Re: Why does Opus 5 feel worse to work with?

#842

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>it feels like reading an impression of a literature book by a high school English class’s most overconfident student who’s only ever read LinkedIn-speak. Claude is very much the “stupid person’s idea of an intelligent person”[0] which, I suspect, is why it is so popular. It certainly explains why half the internet is huge chunks of Claude-authored gibberish copied and pasted and published. If people didn’t think it…

Reminds me of current day politics. Lots of public statements which are obviously false, and you would think the politician knows they are false, but utter them anyway because they also know lot of their supporters buy what they are saying anyway. Now politicians also know something about their supporters so they will adapt their statements to what they think they can get away with it. But, I wonder if this leads to…

>Lots of public statements which are obviously false, and you would think the politician knows they are false, but utter them anyway because they also know lot of their supporters buy what they are saying anyway.

Yes, we truly live in a “post truth” era.

> But, I wonder if this leads to a two-party-system where one party attracts stupid followers and another attracts the smarter ones?

I think all political parties aim at the lowest common denominator.

Re: Why does Opus 5 feel worse to work with?

#843
post #832
post #741

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> prices will probably 10-15x soon as foreshadowed with both API price policy changes from all the big providers I'll take a sportsperson's bet with you that prices per unit of inference will be far far cheaper in one year from now then they are today. I think the trend of cheaper for better/equal inference quality will continue hard.

I'm sorry, but: why? Hardware prices have spiked. I know software is optimized over time but it's a very slow process.

Up to now it’s basically that even when hardware gets more expensive, it also gets more powerful so the price per FLOP still improves. It might be debatable for mainstream GPUs, where generation gains are underwhelming, but the HPC versions are still making progress as long as you don’t need double precision.

I have no idea how the current spike is affecting this: the suppliers we deal with are adapting and we haven’t yet seen a new generation of consumer hardware since the RAM price surge (it’s not really a spike yet as we haven’t passed the peak).

Re: Why does Opus 5 feel worse to work with?

#844
post #832
post #741

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> prices will probably 10-15x soon as foreshadowed with both API price policy changes from all the big providers I'll take a sportsperson's bet with you that prices per unit of inference will be far far cheaper in one year from now then they are today. I think the trend of cheaper for better/equal inference quality will continue hard.

I'm sorry, but: why? Hardware prices have spiked. I know software is optimized over time but it's a very slow process.

When prices spike people generally try to make more of the thing so that they can profit from the high prices. It's very likely this is what will happen. The hardware for running inference will get very cheap and abundant, and the software will also get more efficient.

Re: Why does Opus 5 feel worse to work with?

#845
post #728

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Perhaps this is related to their new "invisible watermark" concept which would probably require rather contrived language patterns to make possible.

If it's using Aaronson's approach it shouldn't have any noticeable affect on generations. When it picks between options weighted by probability after the generation of logits, it still follows the probability mass, it just uses a known pseudorandom seed so that when you go back and look at the exact choices you can fingerprint it.

That's exactly right. And as is well understood, a good pseudorandom generator, despite being fully deterministic, is extremely hard to distinguish from randomness, unless you have the algorithm and key (internal state). Quite smart, really.

Re: Why does Opus 5 feel worse to work with?

#846

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I wondered how far back the usage of that term went. I was familiar with it in patch, so I did a little digging and found it in the v1.3 (1985!) source by Larry Wall: https://groups.google.com/g/mod.sources/c/xSQM63e39YY

You need to go back a few more hundreds of years, hunk is an old term that just means "small piece of something larger". It has been in common usage in computing since long before 1985 .. for a really interesting and obscure way hunk has been used: https://www.maclisp.info/pitmanual/hunks.html

That’s a good one. And yes, of course I mean its history of usage in computing, not in general.

Re: Why does Opus 5 feel worse to work with?

#847

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What are you guys doing to burn through limits? I have some dev + prod bots and according to ccusage, use the equivalent of $2500/month with them on CC yet I never hit the rate limits. I feel like I'm using them all the time so I'm curious what you are actually doing that's burning all of these tokens. Can you give me an example? For me, it's: 1. Write a spec for 2. Add design for issue 3. Write code 4. Deploy code a…

My uses cases are mainly research and prototyping, often starting from scratch in greenfield projects. The 5-hour quota is shared between Claude web and Claude Code, so it doesn't really matter what interface I use. When it comes to research, my prompts are already narrowed down to specific topics, and I even include examples and break the process down into stages. For development tasks, I try to avoid a mono-repo in…

Still not understanding how this reaches limits. Do you have an example or analogy you can share?

Re: Why does Opus 5 feel worse to work with?

#848

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My personal bugbear is its usage of "grain" where normally you'd use "granularity", if at all.

That's the smoking gun

Is it the smoking gun? Or is it the twist? Or maybe, even, the trap?

Re: Why does Opus 5 feel worse to work with?

#849
post #844
post #832

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry, but: why? Hardware prices have spiked. I know software is optimized over time but it's a very slow process.

When prices spike people generally try to make more of the thing so that they can profit from the high prices. It's very likely this is what will happen. The hardware for running inference will get very cheap and abundant, and the software will also get more efficient.

At least for RAM that's not happening. Modern hardware is extremely hard to manufacturer so the moat is huge. We have a handful of makers that silently collude to keep profits up.

Even if that weren't the case, spinning up new fabs takes a long time, 5+ years.

Re: Why does Opus 5 feel worse to work with?

#850

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Tell it to write like an engineer and comment like a programmer;) But for the life of me, I don't get why anyone would care about the comments. All code is "machine language" now. The only document you should be reading is your spec.

The spec your principal engineer one-shoted through Claude and didn't even proof read afterwards before dumping it on the team?

LOL - then they would get the shitty results that they deserve. Hope that's not what you have to deal with. The spec would be written and reviewed by a team of stakeholders.
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