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The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

techtrenches.dev

841–850 of 896 posts

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#841

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your line of reasoning misses the clear example that China pulled 1.4 billion people out of poverty creating mass-literacy before embracing capitalism.

The Chinese did not come out of poverty until after China switched to capitalism.

This big beautiful claim does not match my first hand observations.

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#842
post #796

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sigh, joke sources. Burns and Kennan also, right? Anybody who actually understood Russians is a joke. Study a bit, and not only neocon think tank sources, but from the people who actually understood Russians (there are practically none left in recent administrations). Russians are paranoid, among other things, about nuclear decapitation strikes. For the same reasons, they have repeatedly explicitly strongly opposed m…

They don't "actually understand Russians" and I don't need to study them to see through it. I was born in the USSR. Lived experience makes most foreign "Russia experts" look like the nerds who are very into Japanese or Korean culture and have memorized a bit of superficial trivia, but don't actually know at all how the society functions and are completely helpless at navigating it. For example, Kennan warned in 1997…

First, thank you for taking your time to write a proper response.

Second, I must respectfully disagree.

The reformist/liberals lost it by mismanaging the transition in the 90's. And the society at large was not ready anyway.

And it was not about the turn toward authoritarianism, but a turn towards anti-west as such; those are not the same.

I totally agree that Russians are capable and have their own agenda, no noble savages there. NATO paranoia is not noble-savages, it is, at its roots, historically well-founded self-preservation instinct.

Btw, your choices of wording in several places (Putin is 'enforcer', 'Girkin's invasion force (of, initially, maybe 60 men)', Chechen 'genocide', Russian's 'full scale invasion' (maybe 1/4 manpower of what USA used in Iraq) is rather strange and reeking of just a little bias (are you, perchance, from Ukraine?).

Regarding 'what the west should have done':

In 2014: a) do you sincerely believe that Russia would have let NATO bomb Donbas like Serbia? b) that would have been a very sharp escalation from what was, at that time, not yet as bloody conflict. Such an action would have required a long logistical and planning preparation and great political will for such an costly and risky action; there was simply nobody in the west politically ready for that. The consent was not manufactured yet. It was simply political impossibility, not a realistic course of action that could have been taken. c) what about Crimea? should had the west bombed the Russians there, going to direct war with them? d) 'they would have lost and would have been the end of it': full-on wishful thinking

Before the invasion of 2022: One of the reasons why Russia attacked in february 2022 (and not some other time) was the apparent preparation of a major Ukrainian offensive to retake Donbas. Believing that a show of force by NATO would have not elicited a response is supremely naive. It is on the same level as 'we will push NATO eastward, and Russia won't be able to do anything about that' (The Grand Chessboard by Zbigniew Brzezinski). Eventually, the real red line war crossed and the war ensued. Anyway, there was no political will to preemptively escalate; furthermore it would have broken the narrative of 'unprovoked aggression by Russia'.

Fall 2022 during Kharkiv offensive: That offensive achieved great results, mainly due to major local force superiority (the Russians refrained from conscription and major recruitment, and sent home plenty of soldiers whose half-year duty expired). Expecting the Russians to totally collapse everywhere was about as realistic, as expecting the Ukrainians to totally collapse in February/March. The west was applying the salami slice strategy, incrementally increasing the support of Ukraine (they basically scoured the whole Earth of USSR equipment and sent it to Urkaine). Maybe, they could have sent some western equipment (that was subsequently sent in 2023), but it is unclear how much difference that would have made. Or you mean actively employing NATO airforce/groundpower?

Military experts (Mike Milley) have said in the fall 2022 that this is a high water mark for Ukraine, and they should negotiate now. He was piled-upon; with a hindsight, he was right.

I do not understand: The fear of striking Russian launchers that fire at major European cities every night is indefensibly absurd.

You are advocating for NATO to strike at Russian launchers firing at Ukrainian cities? Because the Ukrainian are doing that, as much as they can.

You know, the main reason I believe the Russia's attack was due to national security reasons and not due to 'imperialistic expansion of territory/capturing natural resources' is simply that there is no economic payoff in the latter. The cost of the war and the inevitable economic sanctions is simply punishingly high. On the other hand, people/countries are willing to suffer greatly in order to ensure their (perceived) security.

To sum up: What you consider 'realistic options that west should have taken', I see as 'highly escalatory and very risky actions that were politically unfeasible'. From the point of view of Ukraine very desirable, from the west's point of view too risky. Simply because Ukraine does not matter to the West sufficiently for the West to be willing to risk their own citizens.

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#843
post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think you haven't dealt with a lot of non-coders. And I think you should avoid making assumptions about people you know nothing about. That is so far from the truth it’s not even funny. > 90% of the world will not be able to even open a .py Which is nowhere near my argument. I’d appreciate if you engaged with what I said or not at all.

I don't know why you're trying to start a fight about this to be honest. I never said coders need to use vscode but yes they need to be comfortable with opening files in some editor obviously. I'm sure you have a problem with that statement too but keep it to yourself because I don't want to hear it.

[deleted]

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#844
post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think you haven't dealt with a lot of non-coders. And I think you should avoid making assumptions about people you know nothing about. That is so far from the truth it’s not even funny. > 90% of the world will not be able to even open a .py Which is nowhere near my argument. I’d appreciate if you engaged with what I said or not at all.

I don't know why you're trying to start a fight about this to be honest. I never said coders need to use vscode but yes they need to be comfortable with opening files in some editor obviously. I'm sure you have a problem with that statement too but keep it to yourself because I don't want to hear it.

> I don't know why you're trying to start a fight about this to be honest.

Again with the assumptions. I don’t know you, I have no interest in fighting you.

> I never said coders need to use vscode but yes they need to be comfortable with opening files in some editor obviously.

I know very few people who are so bad at computers that they would struggle with that. Heck, even Notepad is enough. That’s not a meaningful barrier.

Furthermore, even the free plan of Claude can create ready-made scripts you need only download and then they give you guided instructions to make it executable. So not even dealing with text editors is necessary many times.

> I'm sure you have a problem with that statement too but keep it to yourself because I don't want to hear it.

The way to stop replies is to stop replying yourself. You pushed the conversation. You have the right and ability to stop whenever you so desire.

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#845

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And in the background of this something ominous: Companies can't just pivot back to higher quality after they've destroyed all their inhouse knowledge. (...) They can't move back upmarket after that's done. The knowledge isn't the problem. It can be quickly regained, and progress of science and technology often offer new paths to even better quality, which limits the need for recovering details of old process. The…

10 year warranty on appliances instead of 1 would show the manufacturer was serious about quality !

Only if everyone expects the business itself to continue to exist for 10 years.

Back when I was a kid, my dad claimed house construction firms (in the UK) regularly closed down after building homes to get around having to fix things under warranty.

Regardless of if this was actually true or not, the perception will kill trust.

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#846

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And in the background of this something ominous: Companies can't just pivot back to higher quality after they've destroyed all their inhouse knowledge. (...) They can't move back upmarket after that's done. The knowledge isn't the problem. It can be quickly regained, and progress of science and technology often offer new paths to even better quality, which limits the need for recovering details of old process. The…

> It can be quickly regained I'm not sure what you mean with this? Sure, hypothetically e.g. any western car manufacturer could poach a bunch of BYD employees. But it's not really practical for most businesses . > The actual problem is, there is no market to go up to anymore. This is the "Market for Lemons" problem, yes. It's less of a problem than you might think. Convincing the entire wider world that you're legiti…

> And problem #2: The cost of starting a business is too high right now. Real estate and cost of living just make it unaffordable to even try. + Healthcare if you're in the US.

Fortunate for everyone that Europe exists and counts as "the west". Real estate isn't expensive everywhere, and much of Europe has affordable healthcare. Even in the current economy, several of my former coworkers from recent employers have founded new businesses.

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#847

I still code daily without any coding assistance mostly because I believe this is the way to not forget how things are done, even trivial things. My main point against using AI is that I do not want to depend basically on anything when I'm in front of the screen (obviously not including, documentation, books, SO and alike). I closely see people that are 100% dependent on AI for literally everything, even the most tri…

I hear this a lot, but also I'm curious. How can you really forget coding? It doesn't seem to me a thing that I could suddenly forget? Without AI I will feel frustrated that I'm now much slower, but ultimately it's just describing logic. So I'm a bit skeptical of the claim. My brain effort is also on other things now, such as how to orchestrate guardrails, how to build pipelines to enable multiple agents work on the…

The same way you can get weak if you don't use your muscles.

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#848
post #623

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It didn't feel at all AI written to me. It's much better than the AI written junk that HN laps up without noticing.

It is full of these short sentences that AI writing loves, sort of to feel "punchy". Normally you would copy-edit that stuff, join them up, have the writing have some rhythm. I agree with GP, the article is hard to read because it seems to have a lot of https://tropes.fyi/

I love writing these short, punchy sentences. It makes the impact much better IMO. But maybe it’s just me.

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#849

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm the opposite I don't think I've read a single line of code I've shipped in over 6 months. I'd say it's far more tiring working that way though, you're breaking the satisfaction loop so you never really get the dopamine you used to get coding by hand, when you had a problem figuring it out was like solving a puzzle and you feel satisfaction at the end of it. With AI it feels most of my day is spent being a QA than…

>I'm the opposite I don't think I've read a single line of code I've shipped in over 6 months. This feels unfair to the people dealing with your (LLM’s) code. You don’t vet it at all? Or am I reading this wrong?

My boss gets annoyed if I try and do things without AI so eventually I caved but I don't see the point in reading it if thats the culture at the company being pushed.

Also anyone else dealing with it is just gonna be dealing with it via AI so it doesn't really matter.

If I worked somewhere where the CEO cared about hand written code I would be writing it and reading it but I don't.

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#850
post #17

The real issue, in my view, is not AI itself. The problem is a management pattern: removing people and organizational slack because they don’t generate immediate profit, and then expecting the knowledge to still be there when it’s needed. Short-term cost cutting leads to less junior hiring, and removes the slack that experienced engineers need in order to teach. As a result, tacit knowledge stops being transferred. W…

> removing people and organizational slack You are spot on w.r.t every assertion you've made. When bean-counters took over the ecosystem they optimised immediate profitability over everything else. Which in turn means, in their mind, every part of the system needs to be firing at 100% all the time. There's no room for experimentation, repair, or anything else. I've commented about lack of slack on several times here…

It’s especially ironic since the bean counters produce no value. I like ‘Developer Hegemony’, even if the title needs changing. The author makes a great case for why information workers produce almost all the value. It’s them that make the profits, yet they’re always a cost center.
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