The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline • Hacker News Board

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#841

Post by wiredpancake » Tue, Feb 10, 2026, 11:55 PM UTC

scottious wrote: post #567

bpt3 wrote: post #428

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh good grief, parents with SUVs aren't that complex, and they are often purchased to carry around their kids' friends as well (negating your first point). People do what works for them within their budget, which often is a larger vehicle when you have kids. If you want to translate that as "speed and comfort is of the essence", then fine. I could say the same about someone with no kids who prefers living in a highly…

> they are often purchased to carry around their kids' friends as well but it requires an adult to drive that SUV. Car culture has made it so kids don't have autonomy to move themselves around anymore. When I was 8 I used to be able to walk/bike around the neighborhood to see my friends. Then we moved to car-dependent suburbia and things were so much worse. Having to depend on adults to go places added a lot of frict…

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Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#842

Post by simonsarris » Wed, Feb 11, 2026, 12:03 AM UTC

g9yuayon wrote: post #837

Honest question: why are we so afraid of population decline? For people on the left, it means less consumption, less environment impact, less carbon footprint, and in general fewer damn evil people who are destroying the mother earth. For the right, everyone is responsible for their own destiny including their retirement life so they worry about their retirement spending solely on their own anyway. In practice, Japan…

Mostly because when social security was designed there was a retiree to worker ration of 1:130. Today it is closer to 1:3. Soon it will be 1:2.

We already allocate immense resources to the elderly (over 50% of US federal budget is for old people + national debt, where debt accrues for fungible reasons but the biggest explosion is money transfers/healthcare to the old). We have a few levers we can pull there - we don't have to give money transfers to the wealthiest members of what are, in fact, the wealthiest generation by taking from younger people. We could maybe means-test some of it. But they are politically hairy and come kind-of late. All that debt is essentially already borrowing from people who don't yet exist to pay off the old of today.

So it would be somewhat nice to have more people in the future because we have already borrowed their money (or if you are 30, our money).

That makes things difficult. Even if we did not set up the entire USG to do this, having more retirees than workers makes it hard economically. You could imagine a decade where every 4th person is working in a nursing home, basically.

But other than the massive looming financial crisis and the care problem, yeah, its not so bad.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#843

Post by slaw » Wed, Feb 11, 2026, 12:06 AM UTC

tuna74 wrote: post #736

Night_Thastus wrote: post #336

This is happening everywhere , including nations with great social systems/healthcare/parental leave/etc. And it happens even when nations try throwing money at the problem. While economic concerns may be worsening the issue - I don't think they're the root cause as many would like to say. I think the root cause is that we have outsmarted our biology. Once you give people education on the risks of sex and pregnancy,…

"People in their 20's will see peak world population in their lifetime. It will be fascinating to see how society changes over the decades that follow that." I am 45. I have fairly big* chance of making the global population curve actually drop! *OK, not really, but you get the point I hope....

All projections show world population growth until at least 2100, thanks to Africa birth rate above 4.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#844

Post by dpc050505 » Wed, Feb 11, 2026, 12:17 AM UTC

JPKab wrote: post #312

eptcyka wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Free childcare makes it so much easier. Can’t imagine leaving 80% of my salary at the daycare, but some in the UK do that.

My wife worked in several daycares in her early 20s, including an extremely expensive "Bright Horizons" location in a very affluent area. Even premium daycares provide inferior care to infants and young toddlers versus parental/family care. The economics of a business being in charge of your child demand this. Something that shocked her was at this super expensive daycare she worked at, the infants were basically giv…

In Québec we have pretty extensive parental leave and we have heavily subsidized daycare (used to be 7$ a day per kid, now it's means-tested but you still get a hefty refund on your healthcare expenses come tax season).

When the program was put into place it paid for itself with the amount of mothers that entered the workforce.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#845

Post by jvandreae » Wed, Feb 11, 2026, 12:17 AM UTC

Aurornis wrote: post #242

Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

> They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. I’ve had glimpses of this part of Twitter spill into my feed. It was always obvious that everyone was just using fertility as an excuse to push their chosen hobby horse. The logic barely mattered, they just used it as a reason to push their ideas. From hanging out with younger generations (tech biased)…

The simple fact is that values are partially heritable, and if you believe your values to be superior (you should!) then having children and encouraging people who share those values to have children is a good way to propagate those values. This works for ~any set of values.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#846

Post by dpc050505 » Wed, Feb 11, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC

tahoeskibum wrote: post #252

eptcyka wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Free childcare makes it so much easier. Can’t imagine leaving 80% of my salary at the daycare, but some in the UK do that.

Tax payer paid childcare is known for its low quality. There was an article in The Economist about it.

I had great childcare that was subsidized such that my parents paid 7$ a day when I was a kid.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#847

Post by mmmBacon » Wed, Feb 11, 2026, 12:21 AM UTC

kraig911 wrote: post #395

Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

It's just hard now. Before I had kids I had a network of friends and had a great social life. Now it's just me and my wife. If I want more friends I'll have to have more kids I guess? I have 4 now. One (my first) is severely autistic. Financially the cost? I pay about 6,000 a month in daycare. 2k a month in healthcare expenses. Then community wise. Every time I've gone to take them to the movies, or to a restaurant o…

Midnight PRs sounds really sad. Pager duty; I mean you’re not saving people in the ER. Everything you’ve written comes off as profoundly selfish and self-centered. God forbid your 8 month old needs to be a priority over pager duty.

Raising kids is hard, I have 3 but it’s not sad. Blowing off some steam is something every parent needs. But it sounds like you are in desperate need of some perspective on life.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#848

Post by jvandreae » Wed, Feb 11, 2026, 12:27 AM UTC

maybelsyrup wrote: post #670

alpha_squared wrote: post #460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I generally agree with this, but I want to add another thing that I feel is easily overlooked in both the groups you listed and your post: having men who'd make women comfortable having kids. The alpha-bro intimidation, casual assault/misogyny, disregard for mothers' careers, and lack of community don't exactly scream "great time to have a baby" (I'm not even going to touch the current topic dominating the news). Whi…

> having men who'd make women comfortable having kids This is maybe the most underrated comment in this whole lively thread. Completely agree on all fronts. Men are a huge, huge problem in this equation: in the US, anyway, many of them simply refuse to catch up to simple human values about respect, mutuality, and emotional intelligence. At root it's about entitlement. Scores of women, seeing this very, very clearly s…

Female/leftist projection at its finest. There is no single group more entitled than the AWFL.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#849

Post by supertrope » Wed, Feb 11, 2026, 12:27 AM UTC

sandworm101 wrote: post #221

supertrope wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you want to punch up try aiming higher than the upper-middle class. Other countries have MRIs and drugs as part of universal healthcare.

Ya but those countries also do not enjoy private health insurance and for-profit care providers. The ability to purchase shares in both the hospital that is treating you and the company that authorizes your treatment is a uniquely american priviledge.

You jest but to play devil's advocate every system has its supporters. One of the reasons we didn't get a public health plan option is because the Senator for Connecticut was representing his constituents such as Cigna and Aetna. If you provide an easier exit for the former death panel workers in the form of working at the public option administrator, re-training, etc. you might be able to assuage unemployment based opposition to reform.

People don't gloat at privatization but aforementioned wealthier retirees rely on corporations squeezing ever more money out of customers, employees, and vendors.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#850

Post by echelon » Wed, Feb 11, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

estearum wrote: post #524

echelon wrote: post #510

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that being a parent is harder - it's actually easier (excluding the post-WWII American boom years which were a fluke). It's that the floor of being single has risen to stratospheric highs. Being single used to be: boring (no internet, tv, constant dopamine drip. Having kids was an escape from mundane boredom.) Being single used to be: lonely (now we have dating and hookup apps, online games, tons of in-perso…

> It's not that being a parent is harder - it's actually easier (excluding the post-WWII American boom years which were a fluke). Why would it be easier today? You used to just open your door and go let your kids run around and hope they're back before dinner. Absolutely nothing like today's ultracompetitive, ultra-regimented world.

Kids aren't dying in childbirth, for one.