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The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

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Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#841

Post by pif »

autobodie wrote: post #518
jameslk wrote: post #512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keynes suggested that by 2030, we’d be working 15 hour workweeks, with the rest of the time used for leisure. Instead, we chose consumption, and helicopter money gave us bullshit jobs so we could keep buying more bullshit. This is fairly evident by the fact when the helicopter money runs out, all the bullshit jobs get cut. AI may give us more efficiency, but it will be filled with more bullshit jobs and consumption,…

Keynes lived in a time when the working class was organized and exerting its power over its destiny. We live in a time that the working class is unbelievably brainwashed and manipulated.

> Keynes lived in a time when the working class ...

Keynes lived in a time when the working class could not buy cheap from China... and complain that everybody else was doing the same!

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#842

Post by aswegs8 »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #188
idkwhattocallme wrote: post #23

I worked at two different $10B+ market cap companies during ZIRP. I recall in most meetings over half of the knowledge workers attending were superfluous. I mean, we hired someone on my team to attend cross functional meetings because our calendars were literally too full to attend. Why could we do that? Because the company was growing and hiring someone to attend meetings wasn't going to hurt the skyrocketing stock.…

This is so true. We had a (admittedly derogatory) term we used during the rise in interest rates, "zero interest rate product managers". Don't get me wrong, I think great product managers are worth their weight in gold, but I encountered so many PMs during the ZIRP era who were essentially just Jira-updaters and meeting-schedulers. The vast majority of folks I see that were in tech that are having trouble getting hir…

How are TPMs optional? In my experience they provide more value than PMs that don't understand technology.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#843

Post by marcosdumay »

diego_moita wrote: post #755
tdeck wrote: post #416

Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…

That is a smart question. In 1987 the economist Robert Solow said "You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics". We should remark he said this long before the internet, web and mobile, so probably the remark needs an update. However, I think it cuts through the salesmen hype. Anytime we see these kinds of claims we should reply "show me the numbers". I'll wait until economists make thes…

> so probably the remark needs an update

Only if you want to add "internet, web, and mobile" before "age". Otherwise it doesn't need any change.

But that phrase is about the productivity statistics, not about computers or actual productivity.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#844

Post by Lu2025 »

don't think that the white collar layoffs of the last 3-4 years are due to AI. The tech layoffs of 2022 are explained in part by the impact of 2017 tax reform. Before 2022, the research and development expenses could be written off taxes as a tax credit in the same year. It's a dollar to dollar reduction of tax liability. Tech companies classify a lot of their work as R&D. So those overpaid Facebook coders are essentially public charges! Somebody up thread said that programmers are disproportionately highly compensated in the US. They are, because it's not companies who pay for them, it's taxpayers, indirectly. Starting 2022, the deal became a bit less sweet. R&D expenses had to be amortized over 5 years. What happened next is a collusion in response to Great Resignation. Several large tech companies conspired to have layoffs at the same time as a salary compression move. The AI statements are mostly a scare tactic to put pressure on employees. For some industries and applications AI is revolutionary, but for coding it's good at autocomplete and not much else.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#845

Post by c0redump »

catigula wrote: post #296
ajmurmann wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am VERY pro-immigration. I do have concerns about the H1B program though. IMO it's not great for both immigrant workers, as well as non-immigrant workers because it creates a class of workers for whom it's harder to change employers which weakens their negotiation position. If this is the case for enough of the workforce it artificially depresses wages for everyone. I want to see a reform that makes it much easier…

I want to use you as a bit of a sounding board, so don't take this as negative feedback. The problem is that the left, which was historically pro-labor, abdicated this position for racial reasons, and the right was always about maximizing the economic zone.

I mostly agree with you, but i think there’s something you got wrong. The democrat establishment didn’t abdicate their pro-labor position for reasons of racial equity- this was only ever a cover story.

The real reason is that they are totally beholden to powerful business interests that benefit from mass immigration, and the ensuing suppression of American labor movements. The racial equity bit is just the line that they feed to their voters.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#846

Post by Slow_Hand »

jameslk wrote: post #512
simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

Keynes suggested that by 2030, we’d be working 15 hour workweeks, with the rest of the time used for leisure. Instead, we chose consumption, and helicopter money gave us bullshit jobs so we could keep buying more bullshit. This is fairly evident by the fact when the helicopter money runs out, all the bullshit jobs get cut. AI may give us more efficiency, but it will be filled with more bullshit jobs and consumption,…

Not to undercut your point - because you’re largely correct - but this is my reality. I have a decent-paying job in which I work roughly 15 hrs a week. Sometimes more when work scales up.

That said, I’m not what you’d call a high-earning person (I earn < 100k) I simply live within my means and do my best to curb lifestyle creep. In this way, Keynes’ vision is a reality, but it’s a mindset and we also have to know when enough wealth is enough.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#847

Post by niuzeta »

simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

FRED continues to amaze me with the kind of data they have availab.e

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#848

Post by Lu2025 »

e40 wrote: post #606
simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

Also section 174’s amortization of software development had a big role.

I agree, R&D change is what triggered 2022 tech layoffs. Coders used to be free, all this play with Metaverse and such was on public dime. As soon as a company had to spend real money, it all came crashing down.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#849

Post by raincom »

jameslk wrote: post #512
simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

Keynes suggested that by 2030, we’d be working 15 hour workweeks, with the rest of the time used for leisure. Instead, we chose consumption, and helicopter money gave us bullshit jobs so we could keep buying more bullshit. This is fairly evident by the fact when the helicopter money runs out, all the bullshit jobs get cut. AI may give us more efficiency, but it will be filled with more bullshit jobs and consumption,…

Now one has to work 60 hours to afford housing(rent/mortgage) and insurance (health, home, automotive). Yes, food is cheap if one can cook.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#850

Post by oblio »

aikinai wrote: post #814
oblio wrote: post #807

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People a decade from now will think Elon slashed Twitter's employee count by 90% because of some AI initiative, and not because he simply thought he could run a lot leaner. That part is so overblown. Twitter was still trying to hit moonshots. X is basically in "keep the lights on" mode as Musk doesn't need more. Yeah, if Google decides it doesn't want to grow anymore, it can probably cut it's workforce by 90%. And…

What moonshots has Twitter gone for in the last decade? Feature velocity is also higher since the acquisition.

"Moonshots" was probably a bad term. Twitter devs used to be very active in open source, in Scala, actors, etc in particular. Fairly sure that's all dead. From most reports the majority of current Twitter devs are basically visa-shackled to the company.
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