My AI use is significantly down. I'm sick of following Chat GPT "advise" only to learn how egregiously incorrect it is. Don't ask for DMV advice on registering an out of state car!
I find that adding "don't make any mistakes" helps.
Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic
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Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic
#832Earlier quoted context omitted.
I question the premise that faster iteration on prototypes leads to better revenue or business outcomes.
Isn't that trivially true? Scenario 1) Spend $10,000 to make one prototype. You get one shot, so you prepare and do as much pre-work as humanly possible, but because you only get one shot, you forgot the ask the question that in Hobbs sight was obvious. Scenario 2) prototypes cost $1,000 so you get multiple shots. So you don't do as much pre-work, throw a half dozen things at the wall. One of them sticks! It really r…
Yes, it is trivially true much of the time.
Even so-called UX and product experts get stuff wrong all the time. Going from idea to prototype to feedback in hours or days rather than days or weeks feels like a superpower, at least in the very customer facing parts of what we do.
Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic
#833Earlier quoted context omitted.
I question the premise that faster iteration on prototypes leads to better revenue or business outcomes.
Isn't that trivially true? Scenario 1) Spend $10,000 to make one prototype. You get one shot, so you prepare and do as much pre-work as humanly possible, but because you only get one shot, you forgot the ask the question that in Hobbs sight was obvious. Scenario 2) prototypes cost $1,000 so you get multiple shots. So you don't do as much pre-work, throw a half dozen things at the wall. One of them sticks! It really r…
The problem is in validating the prototype. Whether the users are consumers or enterprises or internal stakeholders, they aren’t going to try 10 different prototypes. They will try one or two.
Most business software isn’t complicated to implement (i.e. it doesn’t require multiple prototypes to determine which technical approach is best). Usually for most apps you approximately know the technical implementation. What requires taste, experience, or whatever you want to call it, is the user experience and if your software actually solves a real problem. You can’t really just churn on prototypes to solve that. You will lose the patience of your user base.
Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic
#834Earlier quoted context omitted.
Doesn't that just draw out the AI revolution by a few years? I don't see why it would stop anything though. Imagine a scenario where someone claimed that it was physically impossible to replace all the buggies with automobiles because everything was backordered and there were labor shortages. Surely the replacement still happens eventually though?
A drawn out long change simply doesn't have the major societal upset that imminent mass-unemployment has. With how much scale AI datacenters want and how the Trump administration has made supply problems significantly worse, we'd be talking decades, plural.
I don't think lowering the rate a bit is going to be sufficient to avoid major upsets. If (arbitrary example) every software developer were forced to switch jobs over a 10 year period that would still be an extremely disruptive sequence of events. And I don't think there's any scenario in which software developers are widely impacted but other industries somehow aren't.
Digitization was already fairly disruptive and that involved much smaller changes than what we appear to be facing while also taking place over something like 30 years or more.
Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic
#835Context: a few weeks ago, Anthropic signed a deal to buy "multiple gigawatts of next-generation TPU capacity" from Google and Broadcom [1]. There have been several previous deals, too. Some people call this sort of thing a "circular deal", but perhaps a better way to think of it is as a very large-scale version of vendor financing? The simple version of vendor financing is when a vendor gives a retailer time to pay f…
Good perspective. Let's say Anthropic fails to pay it's debt, can Google take those TPU's back and make money from them?
They don't get equity back, but the TPU's are all in Google's datacenters and they can rent them to whoever pays.
Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic
#836Earlier quoted context omitted.
.. yet today we have Kalshi, Polymarket, et al.
Those are private gambling businesses akin to a casino, not publicly listed businesses subject to the aforementioned regulations.
GP said:
> there was a dramatic increase in regulations for banks (of all kinds)
and if I can deposit funds, make "investments" (gambling or not.. to me most stock investments are gambling anyway since they pay out in dividends based on quarterly profits) and withdraw money, that is at it's core a bank.
However, in these and many other cases they are now effectively unregulated ones. Partly because the executive branch responsible for said regulations have their hands in the pie.
Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic
#837Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are we replacing "Let me google that for you" with "Here is a prompt to feed ChatGPT" now? Edit: I am not asking whether ChatGPT is better than Google Search, I am asking after the standard dodge of citing one's sources.
Fair point/question. For many of my HN responses, I first ask ChatGPT for a bit of information about the topic. For the case of GE Cap's wrecking of parent GE with excessive financialisation, I could only loosely remember the details from the 2000s. It is a long time ago! That prompt that I shared gave a reply that was 100s of words. Too much for copy/pasta, and too hard for me to summarise briefly. Instead, I decide…
Well, at the very least one thing I would caution against in "prompt sharing as a way to lead people to information" is that a chat bot is far less deterministic than even a traditional web search (let alone a link to a static source): any other user putting in the prompt won't get the same explanation you got, and thanks to hallucination they may get a wildly different answer or a case where this time around the bot wound up misunderstanding what was asked.
Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic
#838Context: a few weeks ago, Anthropic signed a deal to buy "multiple gigawatts of next-generation TPU capacity" from Google and Broadcom [1]. There have been several previous deals, too. Some people call this sort of thing a "circular deal", but perhaps a better way to think of it is as a very large-scale version of vendor financing? The simple version of vendor financing is when a vendor gives a retailer time to pay f…
So Google gives Anthropic money which anthropic then uses to buy compute from Google. How does this end up screwing over regular people?
Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic
#839Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not sure. I have a buddy that's one of the better engineers I know personally, and he struggled to maintain an "AI Lent" for even a month. He found he just wasn't productive enough without it. He did a writeup: https://buduroiu.com/blog/ai-lent-end/
> I delivered more work that I was less confident about, making me more miserable in the process Don't leave the kicker out of the story
The kicker is he wasn't able to compete without the agents.
IMO this is the natural end state of LLM fueled capitalism: products skating along the razor edge between "has value under capitalism" and "is a heap of garbage" until we suddenly realize there's nothing under our feet.
Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic
#840Context: a few weeks ago, Anthropic signed a deal to buy "multiple gigawatts of next-generation TPU capacity" from Google and Broadcom [1]. There have been several previous deals, too. Some people call this sort of thing a "circular deal", but perhaps a better way to think of it is as a very large-scale version of vendor financing? The simple version of vendor financing is when a vendor gives a retailer time to pay f…
IIRC Google already outright owns 15% of Anthropic.
An article from a year ago [1] says 14%, capped at 15%, and no voting rights.
And that was before these new investments. I wonder what they did? I suppose the remaining 1% is worth a lot more now.
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/11/technology/google-investm...