831–840 of 1001 posts
Why does the market like this? Tariffs are in place and unpredictability is now the norm. Tomorrow something new crazy will come out and then the next day and the next day. Even if US markets like this right now, the long term damage has been done. Betting on the medium-long term seems questionable at best.
It's no longer down 20%.
"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…
I think it’s being reversed because it cratered global oil prices and that would be a terrible horrible very bad thing _for Russia_.
Up and down and up again. The entire US economy is being used as a pump & dump scam.
It's not like the tariffs are gone. It's still 10% for everyone but China. That only seems small in comparison to what was being proposed before. I wonder will EU and others wait out 90 days while negotiating or match the 10% in kind
Hopefully EU will still go ahead with the tariffs. We should not be dancing at the tune of the mad king.
EU already had 10% tariffs on all US autos. (Though tbf most other things were near zero.)
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've seen relatively little discussion about these lawsuits, but I do think there is a pretty good chance that SCOTUS will rule these tariffs unconstitutional. (It's certainly more likely than Congress rescinding the powers they've ceded to the presidency.) Constitutionally, the power to set tariffs resides with the Legislative branch, not the Executive branch. Congress has delegated some authority to set tariffs und…
The Supreme Court, in a 5-4 shadow docket decision, just enabled the Trump administration to deport people under the Alien Enemies Act -- a law that requires a declared war or an "invasion or predatory incursion...by a foreign nation or government." So I wouldn't get too excited about the idea that they're going to make a big stand on tariffs.
i wonder why the rest of the world doesn't just come together for a while and stop trading / providing raw materials to the u.s. for let's say a year or so. isn't this all just a huge pile of bluff poker?
That makes as much sense as a hunger strike over food rations.
> “This was his strategy all along,” Bessent said at the White House, where officials, including him, had denied for days that the tariffs would be suspended. And why should we believe them? If it was the strategy, you could have made the tariff announcement into an acrostic or something.
Advisor A: So we're all agreed then. 10% tariffs across the board is our strategy, except China, because Xi is a special boy.
Advisor B: If we announce that, everyone will freak out. There will be rage and panic.
Advisor A: That's where the tactics come in. We announce greater tariffs first, according to this super sketchy formula my intern cooked up with ChatGPT.
Advisor C: That's not what we agreed!
Advisor B: How will that stop the rage and panic?
Advisor A: It's tactics not strategy. We walk it back just before it hits. People will be too busy being relieved to be raged and panicked about 10%. We get the policy we want; the people / markets / etc. will only freak out for a few days and then go back to normal.
Trump: I like it. (Opens Resolute desk drawer.) Here's a signed copy of the Art of the Deal.
Advisor A: Thank you sir! I will cherish it for the rest of my days.
Again, the above is my guess as to what happened, under the (perhaps questionable) assumption that Bessent is telling the truth. ("How likely is this assumption?" is a question orthogonal to the point I'm trying to make, and therefore, out-of-scope for this post.)
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've seen relatively little discussion about these lawsuits, but I do think there is a pretty good chance that SCOTUS will rule these tariffs unconstitutional. (It's certainly more likely than Congress rescinding the powers they've ceded to the presidency.) Constitutionally, the power to set tariffs resides with the Legislative branch, not the Executive branch. Congress has delegated some authority to set tariffs und…
I think that is true, strictly speaking. But how do you justify all of the other trade deals made by other presidents? Were those also unconstitutional? Or just Trump's because they went up not down.
Are there any examples pre-Trump that were not ratified by Congress?
Too late for everyone who spent massively on flying in stock ahead of the tariff deadline. Too late for those forced to sell financial assets in order to pay margin calls. Too late for those working on projects involving foreign manufacturers which have now been cancelled due to tariff uncertainty. Too late for those who lost sales while they figured out pricing. Too early for the people fundraising to build US manuf…
No one will make long-term investments in US manufacturing capabilities in response to policy that will revert in 4 years.