Earlier quoted context omitted.
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Are you implying Brexit and Trumps second term is due to propaganda?
Certainly these were due to social media manipulation
TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.
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Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.
#832Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is no “reason” or justification. The decision to invade has already been made, all these explanations exist for the sole purpose of making it easier to do nothing about it when the invasion happens. Chinese people feel they way they are taught to feel. China's fundamental argument distilled to its most pure form is "we are strong enough to do this, what are you going to do about it?" A world where the strong do…
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Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.
#833Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are you implying Brexit and Trumps second term is due to propaganda?
Certainly these were due to social media manipulation
In my opinion it is a populist movement, and we should accept this hard truth. Trump is in office due to "manipulation" to the same extent that any speech is manipulation. He is a salesman and has sold his vision for the country successfully.
Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.
#834Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is it a given that the US would come to Tawian's defence now (let alone in a few years, when the US is presumably less dependent on Taiwanese chips)? I guess it comes down to how dependent on Taiwan's chips the US actually is (I don't know the answer to that). The US isn't dependent on Ukraine and it's pressuring them to hand over land. If it turns out the US isn't dependent on Taiwan it could show similar indifferen…
> Is it a given that the US would come to Tawian's defence now In practice, probably yes, officially probably maybe. Giving a security guarantee would allow Taiwan to do provocative things, so hence, why there isn't a formal one. If it actually came to be today, I guess the US would at-least offer token support. To (a) embargo China, (b) ensure chip facilities Taiwan aren't surrendered intact. Both of which doesn't r…
that's a nonsensically optimistic view given current events. It's far more likely that there is no security guarantee in a treaty form precisely because the US does not intend to help Taiwan.
Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.
#835Earlier quoted context omitted.
The West will continue to do two things. One, secure the supply of chips. Just look at what happened with COVID coinciding with increased TSMC fab demand from Apple, NVidia, and AMD. Two, prevent China from gaining the technology and expertise to make cutting edge chips. This is already happening and can be handled a number of different ways if China even wanted to try gaining this capability from Taiwan (debatable).…
The West seems to be not that unitary nowadays. What would be the reason for the half with ASML to keep doing the second thing you have listed?
You mean the half still aligned with Ukraine against Putin?
Team democracy tech only. Everyone seems aligned on that.
Will never happen during Xi's life.
Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.
#836Earlier quoted context omitted.
Invading Taiwan will never be an economically rational action. If it happens, it will be because of internal politics, personal/national myth-making etc. Taiwan is ridiculously favourable terrain for the defenders; if they fight back, there can't be quick victory, and the US will be able to play merry hell with China's naval logistics from day 1 (obviously with escalating levels of firepower available over time as mo…
I don't think that's accurate. The population is concentrated on the west coast, all that mountainous terrain is unpopulated. Also it's an island that's very close to China.
I can't comment on their impartiality, but a policy research organisation ran a detailed war gaming simulation of an amphibious invasion by China 24 times in 2023.
> In most scenarios, the United States/Taiwan/Japan defeated a conventional amphibious invasion by China and maintained an autonomous Taiwan. However, this defense came at high cost. The United States and its allies lost dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and tens of thousands of servicemembers. Taiwan saw its economy devastated. Further, the high losses damaged the U.S. global position for many years. China also lost heavily, and failure to occupy Taiwan might destabilize Chinese Communist Party rule.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargamin...
Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.
#837The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…
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Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.
#838Earlier quoted context omitted.
TSMC factories on Taiwan are small fry in the scheme of things and won't really move the needle much, in terms of strategy. Samsung and Intel are pretty comparable in manufacturing capability, within a couple of years really. And most chips you find in cars and ships and missiles and satellites and jets aren't leading-edge either. China is terrified of their access to the sea being blockaded. They'd gladly give up TS…
How would you bock China's access to the sea along it's 14000 km coastline? That woulde be a heck of a blockade, with or without Taiwan.
Why block the whole thing when all shipping traffic goes through 3 chokepoints and the chinese navy is brown water at best?
Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.
#839Earlier quoted context omitted.
Certainly these were due to social media manipulation
In my opinion it is a populist movement, and we should accept this hard truth. Trump is in office due to "manipulation" to the same extent that any speech is manipulation. He is a salesman and has sold his vision for the country successfully.
Is that not definitionally propaganda?
Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.
#840Earlier quoted context omitted.
Trump's extreme unpredictability might actually be a advantage in this scenario.
He has been predictable in his handling of Ukraine and Israel. He favours the aggressors. He's also predictable in isolationism and wanting manufacturing moved back to America. None of this bodes well for Taiwan.
Hamas is the aggressor in the most recent war. They invaded Israel on Oct 7 2023 and killed 1200 people. If you adjust this for population that would be like Mexico invading the US and killing 41,000 people.