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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#831

Post by cpursley »

standardUser wrote: post #625
sethammons wrote: post #532

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While not influential per se, it feels like every response to "people need work / pay" is "the govt can save us, get back in your house moron." The only way that anyone talks about it working is the govt taking over and suspending this or that, paying for this other thing, a few trillion here and there. They are all saying "centrally planned economy" without saying it.

No, you are saying "centrally planned economy" on their behalf. They are calling for extreme but temporary emergency measures to handle what may be the greatest economic crisis of our lifetimes. Are you seriously confusing support for these measures with support for ending the market system in the United States? Can you see what a fantastical stretch that is?

Like the "temporary" Patriot Act?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#832

Post by sershe »

BluePen7 wrote: post #490
ChrisRR wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It still surprises me that America has such a culture of leasing cars they can't afford for hundreds, if not thousands of dollars a month. Here in the UK if you said you were going to buy a car, most people would instantly assume you mean second hand. There's not much of a culture of buying or leasing new cars here, and even less of leasing cars that you really can't afford (outside of petrolheads anyway)

I think there's two confounding factors there, in the US parking is usually plentiful and right out front (or visible), so you're always seen in the vehicle you pull up in. It can be a part of your identity, both for yourself, and socially. Americans also spend a lot of time in their cars, I went from a short commute to a long commute (1 hour each way), and found I got almost exponentially more critical of my car the…

Heh, when I learned to drive in the USA I got a Honda Fit (I'm 6'4"). The plan was to drive it for a year and switch to a car more appropriate for a high-flying' techie, like a BMW X5.

I found out after test driving BMWs and Audis I don't see much difference between those cars and the Fit other than some bogus identity around it. It's just driving. I've taken many 6-12 hour long non-stop trips in the Fit (e.g. SF to Seattle where I only left the car once to pump gas, the 2nd time I had to get gas was in Oregon; many trips to Eastern Sierras from SF, etc.) and I think it's fine.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#833

Post by wikawaka123 »

baron_harkonnen wrote: post #257
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

Tech people will be hit much harder by this than they think. The STEM world is largely in denial because ultimately SV grew because of the last major recession. That won't be happening this time. Startups are having massive layoffs right now, and each week bring companies further and further down the chain lay people off. I strongly suspect we'll see more major layoffs next week. Most big tech companies are driven by…

>"The STEM world is largely in denial because ultimately SV grew because of the last major recession. That won't be happening this time."

Says who? Are you really claiming knowledge of what the future portends?

If you are certain of the future-- you would make a bit bet. Have you bet money on it? I doubt it. If you truly thought this was the case, you'd have purchased some options ;)

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#834

Post by wikawaka123 »

nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

Unfortunately, business failure is part of a laissez faire economic philosophy (i.e. let things take their own, natural course without interference). It's also part of life-- the cycle of creative destruction.

Some businesses will fail (for whatever reason). New ones will step in to fill the void-- perhaps very similar ones, or ones somewhat similar to those they replace.

I think of it as economic evolution.

The world outside of those businesses has evolved-- if those businesses and their management are not simultaneously evolving, then they risk being left behind.

I think the covid-19 situation has exposed weaknesses in the economy, which will be shored up-- but not without painful economic corrections.

"No one seems to care" Eh, the reality is that the owners, families, and adjacent/partner/affiliate companies may care. Other people care-- about other things which are higher priorities from them (things which you may not be aware of).

Ultimately, those businesses may have failed in part because their owners/management didn't care enough to evolve their skills and offerings to what is in demand in the economy (outside of the impact from covid, of course).

To be honest, if you really want to understand economics, you might not be trained to the degree necessary-- i.e. diesel mechanic does not equal knowledgeable economist. So, you are allowed to have an opinion, but others like myself might remind you that it is not a qualified economic opinion, but rather the opinion of a mechanic.

For example-- Do you take investment or other economics advice from your local mechanic? Do you think others would? I certainly wouldn't. As such, if I were a mechanic, I would not have confidence in my assessments of economic situations-- instead I would read the thoughts of those who I am confident are knowledgeable on the topic.

Assertions are easy to make. Valid assertions depend on knowledge, experience, data, perspective, etc.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#835

Post by q92z8oeif »

cultus wrote: post #712
q92z8oeif wrote: post #598

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fact that US still have to break down so much into racial cohorts in polls is weird. And offer nothing of value other than the generalizations like "who tend to be poorer" that doesn't help the discussion nor analysis. What do you do with this information in this context? How about breaking down by religion or something else that at least points to what kind of media/message the group is more exposed to? or something…

Due to the history of the US, race is highly determinate to culture and socioeconomic status. It's a very good proxy for to cut across all sorts of differences. For example, you mentioned home owners. Guess which race has very few of those? I would have preferred to see a poll based on income, but race is still a decent proxy for that.

"decent proxy" is a gross generalization that depends on your deeply set pre-conceptions.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#836

Post by lisper »

renewiltord wrote: post #817
lisper wrote: post #677

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, you're right. Sorry, I was reading your comment while waiting in line at the grocery store and I was not focused. But that is one example. You said many large cities have been run exclusively by Democrats for decades and are notoriously corrupt. One is not many. AFAICT Chicago and Illinois are the exception rather than the rule among Democratically controlled cities and states. Also, Democrats don't exhibit prid…

Not to step into your discussion with the other guy but examples are so numerous that I know of three more off the top of my head. The Most Expensive Mile of Subway Track on Earth , Mohammed Nuru's Penthouse , Leland Yee and Shrimp Boy .

> The Most Expensive Mile of Subway Track on Earth

First hit on Google is:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/28/nyregion/new-york-subway-...

First occurrence of the string "corrupt" in that article:

“Is it rigged? Yes,” said Charles G. Moerdler, who has served on the M.T.A. board since 2010. “I don’t think it’s corrupt..."

> Mohammed Nuru's Penthouse, Leland Yee and Shrimp Boy

OK, I'll concede those two. But both of those examples are from one city (San Francisco), so now at best we're up to two cities. That's not a "large number" in my book. Also, the Nuru example seems pretty petty (yeah, he built himself a nicer office than he should have. That hardly seems comparable to me to the President of the United States proposing to hold the G7 summit at a property that he personally owns.) And both Nuru and Yee were ultimately disgraced. Yee is still in prison.

At the level of Nuru and Yee, there are literally tens of thousands of Democratic officials of similar rank througout the country. Two examples of corruption, one of them petty, and both of them ultimately disgraced, hardly seems like a pattern to me.

By way of very stark contrast, the entire Republican party is covering up for Donald Trump.

And none of this speaks to the other problem I cited: denial of facts.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#837

Post by renewiltord »

lisper wrote: post #836
renewiltord wrote: post #817

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to step into your discussion with the other guy but examples are so numerous that I know of three more off the top of my head. The Most Expensive Mile of Subway Track on Earth , Mohammed Nuru's Penthouse , Leland Yee and Shrimp Boy .

> The Most Expensive Mile of Subway Track on Earth First hit on Google is: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/28/nyregion/new-york-subway-... First occurrence of the string "corrupt" in that article: “Is it rigged? Yes,” said Charles G. Moerdler, who has served on the M.T.A. board since 2010. “I don’t think it’s corrupt..." > Mohammed Nuru's Penthouse, Leland Yee and Shrimp Boy OK, I'll concede those two. But both of th…

What would you require in order to move from your position?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#838

Post by cultus »

q92z8oeif wrote: post #835
cultus wrote: post #712

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Due to the history of the US, race is highly determinate to culture and socioeconomic status. It's a very good proxy for to cut across all sorts of differences. For example, you mentioned home owners. Guess which race has very few of those? I would have preferred to see a poll based on income, but race is still a decent proxy for that.

"decent proxy" is a gross generalization that depends on your deeply set pre-conceptions.

It's a statistical fact. It's not racist to acknowledge that racial minorities in the US are disadvantaged.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#839

Post by lisper »

renewiltord wrote: post #837
lisper wrote: post #836

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Most Expensive Mile of Subway Track on Earth First hit on Google is: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/28/nyregion/new-york-subway-... First occurrence of the string "corrupt" in that article: “Is it rigged? Yes,” said Charles G. Moerdler, who has served on the M.T.A. board since 2010. “I don’t think it’s corrupt..." > Mohammed Nuru's Penthouse, Leland Yee and Shrimp Boy OK, I'll concede those two. But both of th…

What would you require in order to move from your position?

Evidence, preferably all collected in one place and properly analyzed. Something like this:

https://rantt.com/gop-admins-had-38-times-more-criminal-conv...

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#840

Post by andysandwich »

IkmoIkmo wrote: post #511

It's pretty insane that the S&P500 is higher than it was during October last year, hell even something like 7% higher than it was last year May. There was a post on reddit joking about a guy going into a coma last year after having purchased a share of an S&P500 ETF, waking up today and hearing the news of a global pandemic, people were told to quarantine at home for more than a month, a quarter million people died,…

I know this is bad math but just as an estimation:

Fed balance sheet increased about $2T, and Congress spent $2.2T so far with more to come. That's at least 20% of GDP ($20T). Optimistic forecast is that the economy shrinks like 30% of GDP, so that's a 10% net reduction in NOMINAL spending/earnings.

SPX is down like 15% from it's previous high. The market seems to expect things to return to normal next year, which is probably short-sighted, but it's a market.

The real value of any company is down because it's producing less, but the nominal price of the company is inflated by the government spending. So the price of SPX is is not insane (if optimistic), given the government's actions. No comment on whether the actions themselves are sane.

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