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How to earn a billion dollars

paulgraham.com

821–830 of 1001 posts

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#821
post #800

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having been on HN for 15+ years I have found it fascinating to witness the fawning and adulation over pg blog posts completely reverse and everyone has turned on him now. It used to be if you criticized anything in his blogs you’d get downvoted to oblivion. Now criticism is the norm. As far as I can tell it’s less a change in pg’s viewpoints (though the topics have evolved, and he has gotten more transparent perhaps)…

The HN readership has changed massively in that timeframe, from the earlier Hackers and Painters / libertarian ideology to a much more socialist outlook. I could speculate about the reasons for this, but my theories would probably attract even more downvotes than just pointing out the obvious change in tone will.

The hacker crowd has always had a heavy socialist or even communist component - sharing and coöperative work is a big part of the FLOSS community, after all!

I'd say HN is slowly catching up with traditional SV startup culture dying, and seeing more non-VC-funded people flowing in as sites like Reddit enshittify. Those people identify more as tech workers than as early startup employees who aren't a billionaire yet.

Combine that with recent economic and political developments, and it isn't exactly surprising that a growing part of HN isn't a big fan of the über-wealthy tech elite trying to make their life worse.

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#822
She's saying nobody can truly work a billion times more, a billion times harder, a billion times smarter, so nobody can actually earn a billion dollars.

Given that, how can some people be worth as much? There has to be some capture of wealth somewhere such that even though nobody can actually earn as much, they can be worth as much.

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#823
post #775

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>No one seems to be contradicting anything he's saying here So the exact same thing PG is guilty of in the article? He disagrees with the opposing statement, gives a lazy counterexample with 0 evidence that introduces at least two major assumptions that do the the entirety of the work for his "argument", and then takes another few paragraphs to effectively say "just grow exponentially, bro". There's nothing to push b…

His core premise is that one's not required to cheat, use immoral loopholes or abuse anyone to become filthy rich, as a prominent US politician has claimed. That stands unchallenged.

>His core premise is that one's not required to cheat

His core premise is terrible if not outright facetious given the case he made. That the girl who is going to become a billionaire in his example has a startup that makes a product that everyone loves does nothing to disprove the point. Billions of people love VLC media player but Jean-Baptiste Kempf didn't become a billionaire.

The difference isn't the product, it's that what makes the startup founder a billionaire is that they're willing to pawn off their invention to people who do all the unethical things, while they laugh on their way to the bank, that's the point of the big check.

In some sense I prefer the robber Barron over the startup founder because at least the former doesn't pretend they're a saint between they've put one level of indirection between themselves and the exploitation.

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#824

She's saying nobody can truly work a billion times more, a billion times harder, a billion times smarter, so nobody can actually earn a billion dollars. Given that, how can some people be worth as much? There has to be some capture of wealth somewhere such that even though nobody can actually earn as much, they can be worth as much.

Your unstated assumption here is that all work (per unit of time) is equally valuable.

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#825
The new rich have warped concepts about how they "earned" their wealth.

Very, very rarely does someone actually build or provide something so significant that it results in them profiting enough to become that wealthy.

Instead, they (possibly unknowingly) play a complex game that essentially defines complex rules that result in outsized rewards while obscuring the real process of gaining those rewards.

Most of this revolves around magic numbers. The best example is "valuation". Valuation in theory is reasonable. But after just a couple of iterations of mixing leverage with hype and gambling (with other people's money, of course), there is now enough artificial wealth to invest in new ventures to get some % ownership. And based on the amount paid and the percent received, the venture now has this official value. There's no legitimacy behind this calculation other than the fact that everyone agrees to play this game.

Now that your startup has a nice big valuation, you go through several successive rounds of funding - where each round serves two purposes: 1. give you more cash to burn so you can move faster than regulatory bodies can keep up (Uber) or enough spare cash that you can slow the regulatory processes by throwing lawyers at it, and 2: pay the previous investors a nice reward.

Repeat this process several times, eventually resulting in an IPO where you dump all this false value on the general public (or nowadays, all the pension funds and government-forced personal investment accounts). In other words, the last buyers pay for all of the false value. Then they wait for a reward that often doesn't come.

Ironically, part of why this system spawned and has worked so well is that once large, publicly traded companies became fixated on quarterly EPS numbers (so the execs can hit their bonus targets), those companies became slow and useless for innovation. But they had magic money with which they could buy up startups who are actually trying new things.

This entire system is astounding in its perversion compared to how business worked 40+ years ago.

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#828

How can someone so successful be so naïve? The statement, "impossible to earn a billion dollars," is not meant to be taken literally. It is used to underscore the fact that founders (and early investors) are paid ridiculously disproportionately to their employees. There is no labor that a single person can do (without the help of their employees, family, friends, network) that justifies earning $1B.

Billionaire founders make some millionaire employees. Why are they (or rather us?) entitled to more? They are working market jobs for market pay.

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#829

PG makes little effort to identify what it means to earn something. Some people consider effort the measure of whether something is earned. Some believe luck should be subtracted from result to get what is earned. Some say you cannot earn the benefits you receive from your genetics. No idea of what it means to earn something is given except for making users happy while "not cheating" (who decides what counts as cheat…

You saved $500k to buy a beautiful home. You don't know how to build a home. I do. I take the $500k from you and then pay $450k to a bunch of employees who put in 40 hours a week. I take home $50k. I earn $50k. Now, you like the home so much you tell all your friends about it. I hire more employees and I take $50k profit per house but I build 20k houses and make $1B. I earn $1B. Market forces decide how much you "ear…

Of all the billionaires in the world, what percent of them did something like this, vs the percent who reached that number from investments (and by investments I mean assets they possessed which ballooned in value)?

I'm betting it is a tiny fraction. Most modern "wealth" is all based on investment games.

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#830
post #509

The amount of negativity to this is depressing. No one seems to be contradicting anything he's saying here, instead it's just vacuous ideology "extraction" etc etc. Purposely narrow reading. I've got kids, I want people creating start ups they can work in, the alternative is too grim.

Just because people disagree with you does not mean "narrow reading".

OK, PG might have proved it's possible for someone to become a billionaire. But why is that a good thing?

The model is: rich old guys extract money from the populace with threats of violence (just try not paying taxes). The rich old guys get FOMO. They give this money to young people who work really hard. This means foregoing sleep in favor of vibe coding some BS that nobody ever asked for, and making it addictive.

Nobody in their right mind would give a penny to these very hard working young people. In fact they don't: their startups only make money through ads. Nothing they make is worth even a tiny subscription fee. And ads are paid for by resource strip-mining megacorps.

What we have is a two-tier population of a have-nothing underclass and a handful of nobility. If we continue down this path there will be a revolution. There always is. Now that is something you probably don't want your kids to live through.

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