There’s one force where software engineering is being automated by LLMs, but the other force is that there isn’t really much more software that needs to be built. Even before AI coding became big, back in 2021, we were already in late stage SaaS territory where each new idea was an increasingly minor variation of an existing idea. There were no new GitHubs, Herokus, Stripes, Salesforces, Instagrams, Reddits, just var…
LLMs are eroding my software engineering career and I don't know what to do
821–830 of 1001 posts
Re: LLMs are eroding my software engineering career and I don't know what to do
#822I see many comments saying, "AI can't do X with 80-100% accuracy; therefore our professions are in good hands." While I don't want to sound overly pessimistic, the models are improving at a rapid rate. If asked ~3 years ago where the state of the models are today, it would sound like sci-fi if answered, "the models are creating full MVP apps in ~30 minutes with one prompt". The hurdles the models are facing now, like…
> the models are improving at a rapid rate. If asked ~3 years ago where the state of the models are today, it would sound like sci-fi Absolutely true, many things will continue to improve in significant ways. However, if we look at the modern history of rapid disruptions driven by technology (a side interest of mine), persistent patterns emerge. Similar to avalanches or flash floods, such periods of very rapid disrup…
What this means is that the disruption across industries not even truly begun, because it's not the generic chatbot models that are going to kill labor, it's all the domain-specific applications that leverage those models to perform work that was performed by humans
Re: LLMs are eroding my software engineering career and I don't know what to do
#823I see many comments saying, "AI can't do X with 80-100% accuracy; therefore our professions are in good hands." While I don't want to sound overly pessimistic, the models are improving at a rapid rate. If asked ~3 years ago where the state of the models are today, it would sound like sci-fi if answered, "the models are creating full MVP apps in ~30 minutes with one prompt". The hurdles the models are facing now, like…
I don't know, even if AI allows two engineers to do the work of six, companies will likely just use that efficiency to expand their scope. I think we'll see short-term layoffs and a more stratified engineering field during the transition, but the fundamental need for deep technical expertise isn't going away.
1) they won't, they'll just cut costs
or
2) they will, but unless it's a new scope or one that can absorb growth, they'll just be competing with other companies in the space and taking away business from them
either way, labor loses
Re: LLMs are eroding my software engineering career and I don't know what to do
#824Your job is now to get the LLMs to write good code the same way you would do it if instead of AI agents, you would be leading a team of humans.
Re: LLMs are eroding my software engineering career and I don't know what to do
#825Earlier quoted context omitted.
This won't happen in most cases because the valuable thing is largely the knowledge encoded in the software, which the buyers of the software don't have and don't want to have since they're focused on their own business. There's also, of course, the not insignificant value in the software itself actually working, being operated, being updated when necessary, all of that. Again just extra hassle no business will want…
Why would I build my own CRM instead of paying 50k a year or whatever? The engineer plus tokens for maintenance will cost you way more than 50k. These people are delusional and just repeating delusional vibe coder tweets.
Re: LLMs are eroding my software engineering career and I don't know what to do
#826I think that if you are a skilled software engineer and can adapt, you will be amplified in all aspects. If you just like writing artisanal code, you might have a bad time.
Re: LLMs are eroding my software engineering career and I don't know what to do
#827Earlier quoted context omitted.
The dynamic of agent codes human reviews does seem like the only sane one for the foreseeable future. Even Anthropic themselves still fall back to this. The problem is that sucks, even if all software engineers keep their jobs and salaries, the floor is still pulled out from under us. Imagine if a surgeons job was to supervise robot surgeons from a remote computer, or a woodworker just signs off on work before the ma…
I think there is a big difference between a surgeon, who is performing a specific task with a clear outcome, to a woodworker, who might produce a unique piece of art or a functional chair. I think the surgeon-type tasks will be replaced eventually. More interesting are the woodworker types, which has some similarities to SWEs. When industrialization hit, we definitely lost a ton of craftsmanship and craftsman, but a…
I had no prior experience with woodworking, and while it's a little bit wobbly, it's much more robust and it's the exact shape and size I need. It cost the same and it'll last much longer.
And there's emotions and a story attached.
Re: LLMs are eroding my software engineering career and I don't know what to do
#828Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is akin to “don’t make mistakes” “Verify all facts and compliance requirements” leaves enormous holes even if you assume the LLM has a concept of facts and requirements (it does not). What facts? What requirements? For what industry? For what subset of that industry? For what country or countries that you will be doing business in? Are these current “facts” and “requirements” or is the LLM referencing a dusty ar…
> “Verify all facts and compliance requirements” No. This is a disasterous instruction. Not only is it vague, but it's also meaningless. When giving instructions to an LLM your prompt must be concise and exact. Tell it _exactly_ which requirements need to be followed, ideally have it write or (preferably) pass audited tests to enforce these requirements. You also need to provide it with a hard source of truth it can…
Re: LLMs are eroding my software engineering career and I don't know what to do
#829Earlier quoted context omitted.
3 years max. Maybe 5 if you are lucky.The models will continue to improve. The exponential gains in compute efficiency that have been ongoing for 70+ years will continue and that will result in even smarter models. There are dramatic hardware changes in the pipeline. But really that particular issue could have been solved by literally just telling it in a markdown file or instructions something like "verify all facts…
This is akin to “don’t make mistakes” “Verify all facts and compliance requirements” leaves enormous holes even if you assume the LLM has a concept of facts and requirements (it does not). What facts? What requirements? For what industry? For what subset of that industry? For what country or countries that you will be doing business in? Are these current “facts” and “requirements” or is the LLM referencing a dusty ar…
Re: LLMs are eroding my software engineering career and I don't know what to do
#830I see many comments saying, "AI can't do X with 80-100% accuracy; therefore our professions are in good hands." While I don't want to sound overly pessimistic, the models are improving at a rapid rate. If asked ~3 years ago where the state of the models are today, it would sound like sci-fi if answered, "the models are creating full MVP apps in ~30 minutes with one prompt". The hurdles the models are facing now, like…
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