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Miscellanea: The War in Iran

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Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#821

Post by triceratops »

leonidasrup wrote: post #766
triceratops wrote: post #552

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can recycle the minerals so it will also fall back down to almost 0 on a longer timescale. If you keep burning gas you will never stop mining.

We have heard many claims from politician about https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_economy You can recycle the minerals and you should recycle minerals, but almost no recycling technology can recycle 100% of minerals and recycling has always costs attached to it (this can be for example capital costs, building recycling facilities, operating costs in form labor costs for separation, energy costs for melting mater…

> aluminum is recycled... but because recycling is less energy intensive then production of fresh aluminum

So what?

> Recycling of EV batteries will lose between 1-10% of the valuable metals

How much gasoline, coal, and natural gas can you recycle?

> The worst kind of recycling is decreasing the costs of recycling by outsourcing to third world countries

That's going to happen as long as those countries are poor. They need to develop their economies quickly to demand better laws. Climate change will be a danger for many of them in the coming years.

Better, less-polluting recycling tech will help them far more than continuing to burn fossil fuels.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#822

Post by names_are_hard »

genxy wrote: post #753
YZF wrote: post #664

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The elections would happen by default in October: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_elect... The budget will likely be approved in parliament. Netanyahu has a solid majority and his partners are not interested in triggering elections. I'd be very surprised if that wasn't the case. Netanyahu survived many worse political crisis. I'll be happy to see him gone but he always pulls out some magic tric…

Jesus, I had no idea that the Arab vote in Israel was so cruicial and that voter turn out is so low. Mid fifties for the 2022 election?

The Arab parties are potential "kingmakers" in the coalition arithmetic. In particular, it was Mansour Abbas that made the "change government" (Lapid-Bennett) and if there's any chance of unseating Bibi again it'll come down to him. And to my knowledge he hasn't ruled out joining Bibi either, if there's a deal to be made.

A lot also depends on whether the Arab parties run together in the coming elections or not.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#823

Post by cindyllm »

donkeybeer wrote: post #817
pphysch wrote: post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Return them to stone age until the leadership becomes reasonable. Worth reflecting on this sentence. What is "reasonable" supposed to entail here? ETA: "Become secular" is a wild demand from theocratic regime that wants to "Kill Amalek and Build the Third Temple".

I think Iran gaining nukes and a strong military and reduction of US interest in Israel would mostly solve the problems. It will cause a balancing of power and Israel less willing to start random wars and violence. Iran will be a shitty country to its own people as always of course but the Israel csused chaos would mostly be reduced a lot. Alternately Israels nukes are made legal and decommissionied and or brought to…

[dead]

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#824

Post by 21asdffdsa12 »

worik wrote: post #383
BariumBlue wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When it was carried out the invading force was defeated by unexpected resources and resourcefulness from the Iranian side, not entirely unlike what Iran has done during our invasion. Are you saying that Iran is capably fighting and killing US personnel, aircraft, and invading infantry? I am a little confused about the universe you live in. The IRGC and Basij effectively do not have a chain of command and are effect…

> The IRGC and Basij effectively do not have a chain of command There is no reason to believe that They have been training for decades for exactly this sort of war, and have experienced veterans at all levels

If anything islamic countries never lack, its hierarchy. Endless, suffocating hierarchy, with all levels frozen in fear of the higher echelons. Then there is the clan-element. Certain families, have certain generals, whos underlings are of the same family, all the way down.

One has to abandon the view that what represents to the media as a modern state, with modern institution is actually a state. What you have is several, small states, city-kingdoms basically, ruled by one clan. Connected to one another in a tangle of agreements and contracts. Once you come to this point, you start to understand the structure of the thing and also why it is hard to decapitate.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#825

Post by corimaith »

don_esteban wrote: post #788
sysguest wrote: post #744

Earlier quoted context omitted.

well... I actually think even when trump is impeached, the democrats will continue -- even more so, to call mr trump "a weak president" I mean, can US and its allies exactly stop at status quo? Iran just learnt it can missile nearby neighbors and demand $2M toll fee on the strait users... even if US just backs down from "epic wut", will iran become "the good guy" and never missile neighbors and stop demanding that $2…

Stop projecting on Iran what USA would do in their place (bullying everybody). Iran was NOT bombing its neighbours and demanding Hormuz toll before the war. Not even after it was bombed last June. If they had not responded strongly, USA/Israel would keep periodically 'mowing the lawn', not acceptable to any country, especially not for a big and proud nation like Iran. Btw, the US military bases in Gulf countries are…

>Iran was NOT bombing its neighbours and demanding Hormuz toll before the war. Not even after it was bombed last June.

They were funding and arming proxies that were bombing and destabilizing neighborhoods. Nobody in the region likes Iran, that is precisely why the Gulf States want US bases and a Israeli military pact.

And this is not a reactive policy as it is an explicit proactive policy of exporting the Islamic Revolution and gaining regional hegemony. Which no one wants.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#826

Post by bossyTeacher »

nostrademons wrote: post #649
bossyTeacher wrote: post #554

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It's the same difference as buying a house now and owning it until it collapses vs. renting a house and being at the mercy of your landlord, I always take issue with the expression "buying a house now" when you actually mean "pay a mortgage for a house now". With a mortgage, you are at the mercy of the bank and whatever contract you signed. With a rent tenancy, you are at the mercy of the landlord and whatever contr…

For some people "buying a house now" actually does mean "buying a house now, with cash". My mom bought her last house with cash - she just rolled over the money from the sale of my childhood home, which they paid off in the 80s. I needed a mortgage for mine, but now that I have it I'm clinging to my 2.75% rate, it's less than I can make with basically every other investment. In Silicon Valley it's not uncommon for pe…

"For some people", yes nowadays, it's for wealthy people only unless it's a house in the middle of nowhere.

In a tenancy, your rent can go up but most decent countries have legal restrictions in regards to how many increases you can do in a period of time and by how much you can increase it at any given time, and gives tenants legal tools to contest it if needed. And you still get the freedom to move to a different city without losing money. Here, most people don't do anywhere near 30 year mortgages so maybe that's more of a US thing.

In an ideal world, businesses would have customers that are all equally valuable. But in the real world, many businesses have a few customers that account for most of the revenue and the rest of the customers. Those few customers become your boss and they indirectly dictate significant parts of your business because an average customer not spending as much will be ok but a major customer not spending as much will get you sweating and looking at your cashflow.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#827

Post by rixed »

altacc wrote: post #786
khhu2bnn wrote: post #26

The amazing part to me is just the perceived invincibility this small circle within the US administration has. You can find dozens of articles with a search limited to Feb 1~Feb 27, plenty of analysis warning of the risks that have now become reality, everything - the strait, no revolution, further radicalization, critically low US stockpiles, abandoning other US partners, gulf destabilization, etc. In the fantasy im…

This is nothing new, history repeats. Prior to the invasions of Afghanistan & Iraq there were numerous regional experts warning that the result would be chaos, failed states, a rise in extremism and long term instability in the region and indirectly the rest of the world. Millions of us marched through the streets, asking our governments not to make what was obviously a massive mistake. The US & UK governments were c…

At one point you have to consider the possibility that destabilisation is the objective and the apparent stupidity just an excuse.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#828

Post by goda90 »

tmoertel wrote: post #573
stickfigure wrote: post #501

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LG makes an induction range with knobs. I have one. It's wonderful.

> LG makes an induction range with knobs. I have one. It's wonderful. It is encrapified with a bunch of intrusive "smart" features that nobody asked for?

Just don't connect it to the internet.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#829

Post by meheleventyone »

raincole wrote: post #757
somenameforme wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just this administration. Everything with the US military has been going clearly downhill since the Millennium Challenge 2002. [1] It was, appropriately enough, a wargame simulating an invasion of Iran. It was a major event involving preparation in years and thousands of individual operators. When it was carried out the invading force was defeated by unexpected resources and resourcefulness from the Iranian…

Except the US military DID learn from that war game. In the war game the US's fleet was utterly destroyed. In our real life, so far, the US navy has lost exactly zero ship against Iran. It's very interesting that you can look at the situation and say the war game where Iran destroyed the US navy is "not entirely unlike what Iran has done during our invasion" though. I guess in the end different people perceive the re…

I don’t think the air campaign against Iran and the campaign in the war game are similar at all.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#830

Post by samus »

andriy_koval wrote: post #438
Pay08 wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, Saudi Arabia might get involved.

they couldn't defeat much smaller and weaker Yemen.

Did that involve boot on the grounds or just shelling via cruise missiles or from air? Also, Yemen is poorer, but has more or less the same population as Saudi Arabia.
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