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Global warming has accelerated significantly

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Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#821

Post by maxglute »

casey2 wrote: post #765
myrmidon wrote: post #573

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's all China, but I guess it's cool to blame things on developed countries. This is just a naive take. You'd obviously expect chinese emissions to be higher (than the US) assuming similar industrialization, because you are counting emissions for like triple the amount of people. What you conveniently fail to mention: US citizens still emit over 50% more CO2 each, and China basically just caught up to emission lev…

You miss the fact that China's GDP per capita is 1/6th the US. So to produce 1/6th per person they emits 2/3rds the CO2. Which means in total, the thing that matters, is that china produces 4 times the CO2 with no end in sight. They are 99% to blame for the current situation.

If total matters then it's historic total per capita where US is (far) ahead, "current" is 100s of years on climate scale. Unless one insists on only stats that makes PRC to blame. All per capita GDP vs per captial emissions reflects is PRC gdp per capita (btw PPP is 1/3 US) is massively underreported, i.e. comports with other proxy indicators like how PRC consume a lot of goods at per capita rates higher than 1/6 nominal and 1/3 per capita would suggest.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#822

Post by gzread »

jmcgough wrote: post #689
gzread wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't a powerful motivator to people who think they will win those wars.

No one wins in a protracted war.

The leadership can. And the shareholders of the military industrial complex. Not always but they can.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#823

Post by aaron695 »

notarobot123 wrote: post #182
eykanal wrote: post #3

For those (like me) who don't know the authors, apparently they are well-published authors in the field of climate science whose work is very highly cited: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C39&q=gra... Not a perfect measure of whether this is a reputable article but at least readers should know this isn't from some randos in a basement somewhere.

Ironically, those still unconvinced of the human influence on climate change seem to be the sort that would trust the basement randos more than they would reputable scientists

[dead]

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#824

Post by cbeach »

Kiboneu wrote: post #813

Let’s not pretend anymore. The uncomfortable truth is that that people in affluent countries don’t want to change their lifestyle. Affluent countries are less affected by global warming than countries responsible for a fraction of global emissions. All the emissions from manufacturing follow suit.

[flagged]

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#825

Post by koito17 »

fortedoesnthack wrote: post #370
jokoon wrote: post #147

Nothing will change until developed rich countries are starting to hurt. And I don't think it's going to hurt enough in 10 or 20 years. The pain will come slowly, people won't see it. It's like going back to the middle age so slowly, that the population don't realize or feel it. And honestly, wars and trump are making climate concerns so difficult to think about.

it depends where you live... I live in Japan now. One comment I hear often and see reflected in old TV shows is how different summers are already. 20-25 years ago it would have been considered a hot summer day around 30c. Now every summer day is 30c+. Also, a comment I hear often is that people didn't really need air conditioners back then. You definitely cannot get away with living in Tokyo without an air conditione…

Additionally:

- cherry blossoms have been consistently blooming earlier each year

- some areas have been breaking historic high temperatures over the past 3 years (e.g. 伊勢崎市)

- even this year, there were several 20C days in Tokyo where the climate felt more like spring than winter

- 気象庁 is surveying for a new word to describe days with temperature exceeding 40C, since they are now becoming common in some areas.

Lastly, one joke my friends say is "In Japan there are four seasons: rainy season, summer, midsummer, and winter."

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#826

Post by tmnvix »

tsoukase wrote: post #164

This ship has sailed, warming is irreversible. Developing nations mainly in Asia (China, India etc) are, well, developing and burn like there is no tomorrow. But they are not to blame. It is their turn to live nicely, like the US and Europe did for decades. Nobody can remove this right from them.

Well here's hoping they don't decide to take the US approach to 'living nicely': an absolute sense of entitlement to other people's resources all so they can have bigger vehicles and airconditioned forecourts to refuel them in. It's honestly disgusting - especially when you consider how they go about obtaining those resources. War. Fuck war and those that push for it all so that they can 'live big'.

We don't want your disgusting lifestyle. We want you to stop being so bloody infantile and greedy.

Apologies for the strong words but the current state of things has me pissed off.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#827

Post by breakyerself »

funkyfiddler369 wrote: post #678
jihadjihad wrote: post #510

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because they are practicing the reverse scientific method. They hold a conclusion in their hand, like, man-made climate change is a hoax , and seek to find any threads of "evidence" that support their foregone conclusion.

that's cute but you can't blame people for holding opinions based on phenomenal observations before they learn the language and can perform experiments. the fact that so many can't is the sole reason you might be considered somewhat superior or competent. more people with scientific skills and a personal way to explain and adhere to the scientific method would mean that your competence would be no more than average,…

What are the cycles called? How do they function? A lot of people use the world cycle like other people use the word magic. A mystery pretending to be an explanation.

The number of critics of Anthropogenic global warming who actually have expertise on climate change and actively publish on the subject can be counted on one hand. If 99.9% of astrophysicists agreed that a meteor was going to hit your house next Tuesday you wouldn't wait around for the few crackpot holdouts before you to agree to leave.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#828

Post by sulam »

zahlman wrote: post #747
sulam wrote: post #295

FWIW my personal assessment is that this acceleration is both real and largely out of our control. Models in the past did not attempt to account for non-anthropogenic carbon emissions, but as we experience further warming, most especially in the Arctic, feedback loops and tipping points mean that this (carbon emissions caused by “natural” processes) are becoming more evident. This is especially sensitive because a la…

> Oh and roughly 65M of sea level rise as the planet shifts to a snow/ice-free mode. Current rates of sea level rise are still in single digit millimetres per year ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise ), so that would take millennia. If there's even enough ice in the caps to get that far. Pre-historically, vast ice sheets covered broad swaths of regions now considered "temperate" (per the famous XKCD, "Bost…

This is a very common figure you can find much support for. Here’s one legitimate source: Ice Melt | Global Sea Level – NASA Sea Level Change Portal — https://sealevel.nasa.gov/understanding-sea-level/global-sea...

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#829

Post by _heimdall »

bojan wrote: post #109
_heimdall wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric cars aren't a magic bullet. We need to drive less, not scrap ICE vehicles and buy new electric vehicles made on the other side of the planet with globally sourced materials and shipped to the US.

Do they have to be a magic bullet? Switching from ICE to electric is a much smaller ask than switching from personal cars to... bicycles?

Is it really? Electric vehicles require a lot of resources to produce, and those resources are produced globally and shipped overseas multiple times. The batteries are only expected to hold up for 7-10 years, ask my 2014 Volt how the hybrid battery pack is doing.

I get that a change in lifestyle is more difficult for the individual than a change in what we are buying. My point, though, was that only the former is going to have a much greater impact.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#830

Post by sulam »

mempko wrote: post #761
danny_codes wrote: post #733

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Physically that’s not the case. Scaled up nuclear power could be had for $3-4B a gigawatt/h. We waste say $1T a year on basic things, like not having universal healthcare. So a simple policy change would let us build about 300 reactors a years, after some scaling period. The excess energy can be used to turn C02 back into oil. It’s not technically that difficult, we just chose to waste money on stupid things and rich…

Since the industrial revolution we've emitted about 1.5 trillion tonnes of CO2. Direct air capture requires roughly 1,500 kWh per tonne, so recapturing all of it would take around 2,250,000 TWh. Current global electricity production is about 30,000 TWh/year. That's 75 years of the entire world's electricity output just for capture, before you even convert it back to fuel, which costs even more energy. And thermodynam…

This is simply saying “current tech doesn’t allow for this”. True. However there are potential avenues That will greatly increase the efficiency, and there are many companies pursuing these avenues so I don’t expect current tech to remain such forever.
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