I think the comments here have been overly harsh. I have friends in the community and have visited the LessWrong "campus" several times. They seemed very welcoming, sincere, and were kind and patient even when I was basically asserting that several of their beliefs were dumb (in hopefully somewhat respectful manner). As for the AI doomerism, many in the community have more immediate and practical concerns about AI, h…
> They seemed very welcoming, sincere, and were kind and patient even when I was basically asserting that several of their beliefs were dumb I don't think LessWrong is a cult (though certainly some of their offshoots are) but it's worth pointing out this is very characteristic of cult recruiting. For cultists, recruiting cult fodder is of overriding psychological importance--they are sincere, yes, but the consequence…
Why are there so many rationalist cults?
821–830 of 947 posts
Re: Why are there so many rationalist cults?
#822Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The "they" you are describing is a large body of disparate people spread around the world. [Citation needed] I sincerely doubt anything but a tiny insignificant minority consider themselves part of the "rationalist community".
I realized a few years ago that there's an important difference between someone who believes women should have equal rights and a feminist. Similarly, there's a difference between someone who believes men should have equal rights and a men's rights advocate. I often sympathize with the first group. I often disagree with the latter. This same distinction applies to rationality: there's a huge difference between someon…
Re: Why are there so many rationalist cults?
#823A very interesting read. My idea of these self-proclaimed rationalists was fifteen years out of date. I thought they’re people who write wordy fan fiction, but turns out they’ve reached the point of having subgroups that kill people and exorcise demons. This must be how people who had read one Hubbard pulp novel in the 1950s felt decades later when they find out he’s running a full-blown religion now. The article see…
You're falling into some sort of fallacy; maybe a better rationalist than I could name it. The "they" you are describing is a large body of disparate people spread around the world. We're reading an article that focuses on a few dysfunctional subgroups. They are interesting because they are so dysfunctional and rare. Or put it this way: Name one -ism that _doesn't_ have sub/splinter groups that kill people. Even Paci…
We know all true scotsmen are good upstanding citizens. If you find a Scotsman who is a criminal, then obviously he is not a true Scotsman.
If you find a rationalist who believes something mad then obviously he is not a true rationalist.
There are now so many logical fallacies that you can point to any argument and say it’s a logical fallacy.
Re: Why are there so many rationalist cults?
#824Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're falling into some sort of fallacy; maybe a better rationalist than I could name it. The "they" you are describing is a large body of disparate people spread around the world. We're reading an article that focuses on a few dysfunctional subgroups. They are interesting because they are so dysfunctional and rare. Or put it this way: Name one -ism that _doesn't_ have sub/splinter groups that kill people. Even Paci…
Dadaism? Most art -isms didn't have subgroups who killed people. If people killed others in art history it was mostly tragic individual stories and had next to nothing to do with the ideology of the ism.
Re: Why are there so many rationalist cults?
#825A very interesting read. My idea of these self-proclaimed rationalists was fifteen years out of date. I thought they’re people who write wordy fan fiction, but turns out they’ve reached the point of having subgroups that kill people and exorcise demons. This must be how people who had read one Hubbard pulp novel in the 1950s felt decades later when they find out he’s running a full-blown religion now. The article see…
I think the piece bends over backwards to keep the charitable frame because it's written by someone inside the community, but you're right that the touted "wins" feel a bit thin compared to the sheer scale of dysfunction described.
Re: Why are there so many rationalist cults?
#826Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're falling into some sort of fallacy; maybe a better rationalist than I could name it. The "they" you are describing is a large body of disparate people spread around the world. We're reading an article that focuses on a few dysfunctional subgroups. They are interesting because they are so dysfunctional and rare. Or put it this way: Name one -ism that _doesn't_ have sub/splinter groups that kill people. Even Paci…
The article specifically defines the rationalists it’s talking about: “The rationalist community was drawn together by AI researcher Eliezer Yudkowsky’s blog post series The Sequences, a set of essays about how to think more rationally.” Is this really a large body of disparate people spread around the world? I suspect not.
Arguments about who is/not a cult member (regardless of affiliation) don't seem relevant to HN. Perhaps HN should flag the thread.
Re: Why are there so many rationalist cults?
#827Earlier quoted context omitted.
On the other hand, I'm baffled to encounter recursive self-improvement being discussed as something not only weird to expect, but as damning evidence of sloppy thinking by those who speculate about it. We have an existence proof for intelligence that can improve AI: humans. If AI ever gets to human-level intelligence, it would be quite strange if it couldn't improve itself. Are people really that sceptical that AI wi…
Consider that even the named phenomenon is sloppy: "recursive self improvement" does not imply "self improvement without bounds". This is the "what if you hit diminishing returns and never get past it" claim. Absolutely no justification for the jump, ever, among AI boosters. > If AI ever gets to human-level intelligence This picture of intelligence as a numerical scale that you just go up or down, with ants at the bo…
Re: Why are there so many rationalist cults?
#828A very interesting read. My idea of these self-proclaimed rationalists was fifteen years out of date. I thought they’re people who write wordy fan fiction, but turns out they’ve reached the point of having subgroups that kill people and exorcise demons. This must be how people who had read one Hubbard pulp novel in the 1950s felt decades later when they find out he’s running a full-blown religion now. The article see…
> Of the fifty-odd biases discovered by Kahneman, Tversky, and their successors, forty-nine are cute quirks, and one is destroying civilization. This last one is confirmation bias - our tendency to interpret evidence as confirming our pre-existing beliefs instead of changing our minds.
I'm mildly surprised the author didn't include it in the list.
[0] https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/book-review-the-scout-minds...
Re: Why are there so many rationalist cults?
#829Earlier quoted context omitted.
The point of masks, originally, was to catch saliva drops from surgeons as they worked over an open body, not to stop viruses. For COVID its use was novel. But having an intention isn't enough. It must actually work. Otherwise, you are just engaging in witchcraft and tomfoolery. The respiratory droplet model of how COVID spread was wrong, which was proven by lots of real world evidence. Look at how the Diamond Prince…
I'm not sure where you're getting this from. Repeated studies continue to affirm that COVID is spread by respiratory droplets and that masks are effective in reducing transmission. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8721651/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/face-mask-effectiveness-what-sc... https://www.ukri.org/who-we-are/how-we-are-doing/research-ou... Why do you believe the Diamond Princess is a counterexample?
Case study: Diamond Princess was a cruise ship at sea (i.e. sealed environment) in which the SARS-CoV-2 index case passenger was found very early. They locked everyone in their cabins and food was left outside the doors. This was an effective way to eliminate contact.
Implication: If SARS-CoV-2 spread only via respiratory droplets, that strategy would have killed the epidemic in its tracks.
Observed behavior: COVID cases appeared randomly throughout the entire ship without rhyme or reason, until eventually it petered out having sickened many but not all of the people on board.
Conclusion: SARS-CoV-2 is just like SARS-1, infected patients create gaseous aerosols which can spread long distances through air ducts. Exposure on board was 100%, but some people were naturally immune due to having been exposed to similar viral proteins in the past.
External validity: mask wearing and lockdowns routinely went from 0% to 100% to 0% again overnight, and yet no impacts can be seen in derivatives of the case rates. As creating such inflections in the derivative was the sole justification for the policies, these policies failed. Contact tracing studies estimated a maybe 80% pre-existing immunity rate to the initial variants based on lack of household transmission.
Why does the real data conflict with so many post-2020 studies? Check the details and you'll find the ones claiming masks work are all pseudo-scientific. Many of them don't even use real world evidence at all, they're purely modeling exercises in which academics start by assuming masks work and then show a reduction in simulated infection rate! Such papers have no scientific validity, it's merely writing a video game that reflects your own beliefs back at you.
If you narrow it down to just studies that use the scientific method correctly and which are built on strong evidence, no convincing findings remain. That was the conclusion of the Cochrane Review, and it was the scientific consensus before COVID too. You know, when the health officials started out by saying (everywhere, globally) that there was no evidence masks worked, it wasn't really some enormously cunning global conspiracy to limit demand. Use Google Scholar and see for yourself.
The switch to claiming masks worked came about because epidemiologists built models that shocked the world with their predictions of mass death and crisis. Lots of people became so terrified they'd barely leave their homes. Politicians and Public Health needed a way to talk people down from the ledge so this idea of mask mandates came, but it came from the politicians. Politicians: "Do masks work?", PH: "We have no evidence they would", "But would masks hurt?", "Well.... no ... guess they can't really hurt ...", "OK then this is a crisis, let's do it". And then public health suddenly had to justify this new position, so you get a proliferation of "studies" along with ridiculous stories like "we were lying to save masks for healthcare workers" (think about the nonsensical logic of this for a second!)
Re: Why are there so many rationalist cults?
#830A very interesting read. My idea of these self-proclaimed rationalists was fifteen years out of date. I thought they’re people who write wordy fan fiction, but turns out they’ve reached the point of having subgroups that kill people and exorcise demons. This must be how people who had read one Hubbard pulp novel in the 1950s felt decades later when they find out he’s running a full-blown religion now. The article see…
The WHO didn't declare a global pandemic until March 11, 2020 [1]. That's a little slow and some rationalists were earlier than that. (Other people too.) After reading a warning from a rationalist blog, I posted a lot about COVID news to another forum and others there gave me credit for giving the heads-up that it was a Big Deal and not just another thing in the news. (Not sure it made all that much difference, thoug…