Earlier quoted context omitted.
Since no one specifically answered your question yet, yes, you should be able to get usable performance. A Q4_K_M GGUF of DeepSeek-R1 is 404GB. This is a 671B MoE that "only" has 37B activations per pass. You'd probably expect in the ballpark of 20-30 tok/s (depends on how much actually MBW can be utilized) for text generation. From my napkin math, the M3 Ultra TFLOPs is still relatively low (around 43 FP16 TFLOPs?),…
I actually think it’s not a coincidence and they specifically built this M3 Ultra for DeepSeek R1 4-bit. They also highlight in their press release that they tested it with 600B class LLMs (DeepSeek R1 without referring to it by name). And they specifically did not stop at 256 GB RAM to make this happen. Maybe I’m reading too much into it.
Fact is Mac Pros in the Intel days supported 1.5TB RAM in some configurations[1] and that was 6 years ago expectations of their high end customer base. They needed to address the gap for those customers so they would have shipped such a product regardless. Local LLM is cherry-on-top. Deepseek in particular almost certainly had nothing to do with it. They will still need to double their supported RAM in their SoC to get there. Perhaps in a Mac Pro or a different quad-Max-glued chip.