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Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

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Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#821

Post by cyanydeez »

pyentropy wrote: post #814
mrtesthah wrote: post #792

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually inference got more efficient as well, thanks to the multi-head latent attention algorithm that compresses the key-value cache to drastically reduce memory usage. https://mlnotes.substack.com/p/the-valleys-going-crazy-how-d...

If H800 is a memory-constrained model that NVIDIA built to avoid the Chinese export ban on H100 with equivalent fp8 performance, it makes zero sense to believe Elon Musk, Dario Armodei and Alexandr Wang's claims that DeepSeek smuggled H100s. The only reason why a team would allocate time on memory optimizations and writing NVPTX code rather than focusing on posttraining is if they severely struggled with memory durin…

What's surprising is anyone would repeat Elon musk related things.

Tech or politics related, he's off the deep end.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#822

Post by oldpersonintx »

Barrin92 wrote: post #566
trhway wrote: post #558

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Really? Has anyone made a useful, commercially successful product with it yet? Aren't millions or even tens of millions students using ChatGPT for example? To me that sounds like a commercial success (and looks comparable with the usage of Google Search - a money printing machine for more almost 30 years now - in the first years) And enterprise-wise - heard recently a VP complaining about entering expenses. As we do…

>To me that sounds like a commercial success It isn't because it's not making them any money. Having users doesn't mean you have a business. If you sell two dollars for one dollar having more users is not a blessing financially. Of course you could slap ads on it, like Google, but unlike Google openAI has no moat and there's already ten competitors. Competition eliminates profit and AI is being commoditized faster th…

[dead]

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#824

Post by Jlagreen »

nickthegreek wrote: post #579
ipv6ipv4 wrote: post #514

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me this rings a lot like “640KB ought to be enough for anybody” Similarly, as fast as processors have gotten, people still complain their applications are slow. Because they do so much more. Generally applicable ML is still in its infancy, and usage is exploding. All those newfound spare cycles will get soaked up fairly quickly.

It’s made a NVIDIA Digits even more attractive to me now.

The good thing is:

Blackwell DC is $40k per piece and Digits is $3k per piece. So if 13x Digits are sold then it's the same turnover as a DC GPU for Nvidia. Yes, maybe lower margin but Nvidia can easily scale digits into masses compareds to Blackwell DC GPUs.

In the end, the winner is Nvidia because Nvidia doesn't care if DC GPU, Gaming GPU, Digits GPU, Jetson GPU is used for AI as long as Nvidia is used 98% of time for AI workloads. That is the world domination goal, simple as that.

And that's what Wallstreet doesn't get. Digits is 50% more turnover than the largest RTX GPU. On average gaming GPU turnover is probably around $500 per GPU. Nvidi probably sells 5 million gaming GPUs per quarter. Imagine they could reach such amounts of Digits. That would be $15b revenue and almost half of current DC revenue with Digits only.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#825

Post by _t9ow »

surgical_fire wrote: post #238
esperent wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> PRC companies breaking US export control laws is legal So long as they don't plan to do any business with the US or any of their allies I guess.

Which allies? The ones the current US president is threatening in all sorts of manner? I actually hope he doubles down. I would love for EU to rely less on the US. It would also reduce the reach of the silly embargoes that benefit no one but the US.

The USA does not have allies. It has hostages.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#826

Post by cyanydeez »

bo1024 wrote: post #807
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #801

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has been clear for a while that one of two things is true. 1) AI stuff isn't really worth trillions, in which case Nvidia is overvalued. 2) AI stuff is really worth trillions, in which case there will be no moat, because you can cross any moat for that amount of money, e.g. you could recreate CUDA from scratch for far less than a trillion dollars and in fact Nvidia didn't spend anywhere near that much to create it…

I think the analysis of (2) is too simplistic because it ignores network effects. A community of developers and users around a specific toolset (e.g. CUDA) is hard to just "buy". Imagine trying to build a better programming language than python -- you could do it for a trillion dollars, but good luck getting the world to use it. For a real example, see Meta and Threads, or any other Twitter competitor.

The second dotcom era was basically giving away product until you have a monopoly.

Really isn't hard to imagine a company trying to make a software happen by generating an environment around it.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#827

Post by danlugo92 »

jandrese wrote: post #787
skizm wrote: post #337

I like the chart Bloomberg has of the top 10 largest single day stock drops in history. 8 out of the 10 are NVDA (Meta and Amazon are the other two).

I feel like this is a symptom of our broken economic system that has allowed too much cash to be trapped in the markets, forever making mostly imaginary numbers go up while the middle class gets squeezed and the poor continue to suffer. A fundamental feature of a capitalist system you can use money to make more money. That's great for growing wealth. But you have to be careful, it's like a sound system at a concert.…

Or you could, you know, like just stop printing money and the problem goes away.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#828

Post by cyanydeez »

Cumpiler69 wrote: post #797
nly wrote: post #786

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's because software devs are smart and make a lot of money - a natural next step is to try and use their smarts to do something with that money. Hence stocks.

>It's because software devs are smart and make a lot of money They just think they're smart BECAUSE they make a lot of money. Just because you can center divs for six figures a year at a F500 doesn't make you smart at everything.

The secret of meritocracy is it can be measured in billionaires

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#829

Post by mnky9800n »

cyanydeez wrote: post #821
pyentropy wrote: post #814

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If H800 is a memory-constrained model that NVIDIA built to avoid the Chinese export ban on H100 with equivalent fp8 performance, it makes zero sense to believe Elon Musk, Dario Armodei and Alexandr Wang's claims that DeepSeek smuggled H100s. The only reason why a team would allocate time on memory optimizations and writing NVPTX code rather than focusing on posttraining is if they severely struggled with memory durin…

What's surprising is anyone would repeat Elon musk related things. Tech or politics related, he's off the deep end.

Especially since he seems intent on everyone talking about him all the time. I find it questionable when a person wants to be the centre of attention no matter. Perhaps attention is not all we need.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#830

Post by mnky9800n »

plussed_reader wrote: post #778
CursedSilicon wrote: post #767

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's something to be said about the idea that instead of just dumping oceans of money into buying Nvidia cards they just...optimized what they had I'd say the wider industry could learn a thing or two, but as other commentors have joked. The line must go up

The double edged sword of export controls.

Creativity always delivers when minds are constrained.
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