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More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

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Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#821

Post by hooande »

betwixthewires wrote: post #812
AlchemistCamp wrote: post #461

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I paid a total of $20k over five years which I easily covered with internships/summer jobs. You paid with five years of your life. Even if college were "free", it still wouldn't be the optimal thing for everyone to do. It is the best choice for some, but unfortunately those who make other choices are often looked down upon in much of the world unless they're an outlier success. The cost of US schools is a massive p…

This is an important point that isn't being made enough in this thread. Must we all trade our youth for what amounts to a cost sunk fallacy that commits us to a path we may not even like?

Think of college as a social experience for children of privileged backgrounds. Four years of minimal responsibility, ample social activities and idle study. I would love to have that now.

It's expensive, but nice work if you can get it

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#822

Post by aerostable_slug »

hooande wrote: post #817
aerostable_slug wrote: post #595

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem comes in when you try to verify someone's ability to repay the loan. It's not just one's choice in major — for example, the graduation rate for Historically Black Colleges & Universities is only 35%. There are significant deltas between GPA, test scores, and college success rates between various ethnicities. Further, there are significant differences in the repayment of student loans between various ethni…

Quoted post unavailable.

That's out of line and I'd appreciate an apology.

I was simply pointing out the most politically hot topic that such a risk assessment would run into, but if you prefer to put class first that is your prerogative. Of course, with even a small amount of research you might find that these issues tend to collide and ethnicity is what gets talked about the most. You might also find out that the disparate rate of repayments between ethnicities is perhaps the leading issue for those who favor debt forgiveness, many of whom frame it as a civil rights issue [0][1][2][3].

That said, it's perhaps a moot point because Biden's not forgiving anything, and the way things are looking I don't imagine Congress will any time soon either.

[0] https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/20/us/black-borrowers-debt-study...

[1] https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/06/us/black-student-loan-crisis/...

[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-20/calls-for...

[3] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/04/66percent-of-black-borrowers...

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#823

Post by idrios »

JPKab wrote: post #785
jeremy_wiebe wrote: post #721

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 4) Student loans are a horror that needs to stop. Young people should not be put in debt-bondage. Imagine America's financial health if we let young people start families and careers debt free. Nobody has forced anyone to take a student loan. In fact, many young adults would probably learn a lot about life, financial management, and restraint if they saved for college and waited till they could afford it instead of…

You're right. Nobody forced me to sign on to student loans at the age of 17. I did it voluntarily. I couldn't buy beer, or cigarettes, or lease an apartment, and my brain wasn't fully developed. But yeah, nobody forced me to make a foolish decision and give a bunch of money to an inherently corrupt, predatory industry that employs more and more administrators every year while every other industry has used technology…

Hah, similar story here but biomedical engineer with physics & EE minors instead. I wouldn't say that at 17 our brains were too underdeveloped, but that without real world experience there was too much we didn't understand -- that our universities are training more qualified applicants than there are jobs for our fields, so companies can have their pick of the litter. And I sometimes see people talk about university as a path to scholarship, professorship, tenure, etc.. and that kind of discussion is so foreign to me because even when I was in school 10 years ago it was very obvious that those positions were too competitive, so the school was training us for industry instead.

But when you're that age, it's impossible to weigh the economics of how many MRI / CT / medical imaging engineering positions are going to be available when you graduate in 4 years, vs how many other fresh grads will be applying for them. The only thing you know is that if you diverge from the path expected of you too much, the other fresh grads will have a competitive advantage over you so you just have to take the gamble that what you're studying will be employable.

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#824

Post by hooande »

KarlKemp wrote: post #819
nfw2 wrote: post #763

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The study you linked is over 10 years old. Furthermore, it is using lifetime earnings as the core metric, which means they are pulling in data about people who earned their degrees like 50 years ago. All the data that currently exists shows better outcomes for students that go to college. One would expect this even if college had no benefit to students because the population of students that go to college is pre-sele…

You acknowledge that the data is rather clear on this: education is well correlated with income: https://www.bls.gov/careeroutlook/2020/data-on-display/educa... And while I have sympathy for your story, it isn't much more than what you want to be true. As an example: even a rather stupid medical doctor will tend to earn a lot of money. So, assuming you are capable of getting the degree, it will likely pay well. Anoth…

Read this:

> "Before they attend, students that go to college, on average, demonstrate better analytic skills than the students that do not go to college. They also, on average, have access to more existing wealth and other resources through their family."

This is a classic example of the concept of "correlation does not equal causation". This is when two things are related, but one does not lead to the other.

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#825

Post by KarlKemp »

hooande wrote: post #824
KarlKemp wrote: post #819

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You acknowledge that the data is rather clear on this: education is well correlated with income: https://www.bls.gov/careeroutlook/2020/data-on-display/educa... And while I have sympathy for your story, it isn't much more than what you want to be true. As an example: even a rather stupid medical doctor will tend to earn a lot of money. So, assuming you are capable of getting the degree, it will likely pay well. Anoth…

Read this: > "Before they attend, students that go to college, on average, demonstrate better analytic skills than the students that do not go to college. They also, on average, have access to more existing wealth and other resources through their family." This is a classic example of the concept of "correlation does not equal causation". This is when two things are related, but one does not lead to the other.

Read this:

> "But refuting the data which is clear on this across time and many countries requires more than a good story."

We all know correlation does not equal causation because we went to college. Or have read a single thread here. But it's still empirical data and, as such, slightly better than motivated storytelling.

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#826

Post by LeanderK »

mabub24 wrote: post #611
abeppu wrote: post #449

The bizarre thing with higher education costs that no one's really explained to me is why schools simultaneously spend more and more on administrators (who are full time staff), and push more and more teaching to adjuncts. The claim I've heard justifying the growth of administration staff is that regulatory compliance becomes more onerous over time. But no school is judged on their regulatory compliance. In industry,…

A lot of universities are openly hostile to tenured professors, unless those professors are gigantic names in the field they can use for marketing. Many Universities would be a-okay with ditching tenure all together. The reality is many universities have gotten out of the game of offering quality education. They still offer education, but they are largely indifferent to the quality of the education, so adjuncts will…

but aren't "good" universities (also) judged by their research output? Or formulated in another way...isn't the majority of the budget of a good university research where tenured staff matters?

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#827

Post by dan-0 »

pb7 wrote: post #652
devwastaken wrote: post #557

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Trades are overwhelmingly what people do when they don't go for a BA, and often have houses and children far before college graduates. Many more mechanics, plumber, hvac, electrical, welders, pipfitters, etc than we give credit for. 3. Scholarships are not based on intelligence. They are based on access to resources. Many good scholarships require references, achievements, good writing, and lower income. Hard to d…

>Trades are overwhelmingly what people do when they don't go for a BA, and often have houses and children far before college graduates. Having a house and children as soon as possible isn't a win. It's what happens when you lack imagination. There's so much more to life than pumping out kids at 21 in your 3/2 in fly over country.

> There's so much more to life than pumping out kids

I think it's pretty hard to argue this is true while literally making "life." Yeah you don't usually get a shiny new car and an unnecessarily large house having kids at 21, but the life you're talking about is a negative for humanity.

What does it matter when you're happy and have everything you need to survive and provide anyways? That's what a "win" is.

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#828

Post by HWR_14 »

indymike wrote: post #314

There are three problems that colleges need to fix. 1) Skilled trades pay better than most bachelor's degree track jobs. My kids can make more money with a six month apprenticeship than they will with all but a few 4 year degrees. If you can drive a forklift, you can make $45K/yr... which is identical to what an firsty year teacher makes. 2) There are better options than college for many. One of my daughters did a si…

In response to your problems:

> 1) Skilled trades pay better than most bachelor's degree track jobs

This is a problem that the colleges cannot fix. It's not the college systems fault teacher pay is being held back so much (unless by that you mean they should dramatically increase professors' salaries, so that the higher rates in academia trickle down.)

> 2) There are better options than college for many.

This is point 1 again. Digital Marketing is just a different skilled trade.

> 3) College is way over priced.

Isn't that because tuition has been a larger and larger portion of their income?

> They claim graduates make 40% over their lifetime vs. non grads. JP Morgan Chase did a study two years ago that shows kids that had a job, any job before age 18 make 35% more than their peers over their lifetime regardless of degree.

Sure, and? That's not relevant to the discussion, because they just isolated one variable. If both statements are true, you would expect a college educated person who had a job before 18 to make 89% more than someone who did neither.

> 4) Student loans are a horror that needs to stop.

I agree. But it's not the college system's fault that public support (financially) nosedived over the past couple of decades.

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#829

Post by nfw2 »

KarlKemp wrote: post #819
nfw2 wrote: post #763

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The study you linked is over 10 years old. Furthermore, it is using lifetime earnings as the core metric, which means they are pulling in data about people who earned their degrees like 50 years ago. All the data that currently exists shows better outcomes for students that go to college. One would expect this even if college had no benefit to students because the population of students that go to college is pre-sele…

You acknowledge that the data is rather clear on this: education is well correlated with income: https://www.bls.gov/careeroutlook/2020/data-on-display/educa... And while I have sympathy for your story, it isn't much more than what you want to be true. As an example: even a rather stupid medical doctor will tend to earn a lot of money. So, assuming you are capable of getting the degree, it will likely pay well. Anoth…

I'm not sure what story you think I'm trying to tell. My main point was that anecdotal data can be valuable when the empirical data doesn't tell the whole story.

I agree with your point about the doctor. It's a good point that uses storytelling which is the thing you seem to be against.

As for what I believe personally, I think college is still the right choice for most students who want to pursue a STEM field or study business. I went to college, studied a STEM field, and it worked out well.

You say that empirical data is always better than storytelling based on anecdotes. I disagree. Misleading empirical data can be actively harmful and worse than no data at all.

For example, if students assume from the existing correlations that college will automatically raise their income, regardless of their intended career, they might be left with no career prospects, crushing amounts of debt, seemingly no hope of ever owning a home, seemingly no hope to ever support a family, etc. It's very depressing and what many of my peers are facing now.

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