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The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

techtrenches.dev

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Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#811

Post by WalterBright »

breezybottom wrote: post #757
WalterBright wrote: post #675

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All true. That's why there are laws against fraud. What do you think of the tricks that California pulled to have billions vanish with not a mile of track laid? Or all those hospices with no beds? Or this fun one: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/does-noth... Unfortunately, as a taxpayer, I am on the hook for those tricks. With a business, I can do some due diligence and then decide if I want to get…

That's what Elon Musk said, and yet DOGE has lead to zero fraud lawsuits

In the article I linked to, $8 million disappeared without a trace. I doubt anyone will be prosecuted over that. I'm not sure why. How about Caltrain producing 0 miles of track? Nobody is being prosecuted over that, either. Or the $100 million raised by Fire Aid (to aid the victims of the Palisades fire), and nobody knows what happened to the money.

Do you believe that means there's no hanky panky going on?

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#812

Post by Fr0styMatt88 »

croisillon wrote: post #294
Fr0styMatt88 wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like it’s something more fundamental and broad than that. We slowly remove excuses to talk to other people. The thought crossed my mind the other day — if I’m asking the AI a question, that’s replacing a human interaction I would have had with a coworker. It’s not just in coding, it’s everything. With ChatGPT always available in your pocket, what social interactions is it replacing? The thing that gets me is,…

i see what you did there :)

hahaha took me a bit to get what you meant.... Yep I've been reading LLM output a lot lately lol

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#813

Post by bdangubic »

WalterBright wrote: post #675
kmijyiyxfbklao wrote: post #657

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can always trick investors. For example all the overpromising Musk has done over the years. Also when you are that famous you can sell lower quality goods for a higher price that people will buy because they are associated to you.

All true. That's why there are laws against fraud. What do you think of the tricks that California pulled to have billions vanish with not a mile of track laid? Or all those hospices with no beds? Or this fun one: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/does-noth... Unfortunately, as a taxpayer, I am on the hook for those tricks. With a business, I can do some due diligence and then decide if I want to get…

> I suspect you and I are being fleeced far more by government waste and fraud than by businesses.

lovely how US politicians have been able to successful lie their way into making gullible people like you believe this - quite remarkable… I am always in awe what they can accomplish

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#814

Post by wredcoll »

WalterBright wrote: post #619
wredcoll wrote: post #612

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it just means they're expecting someone else to buy it from them at a higher price. See also: bitcoin.

Bitcoin is not a company selling a product.

What exactly is the difference? Someone tweets that next week bitcoin will be worth $x more, or elon tweets that tesla will be worth $x more next week?

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#815

Post by WalterBright »

cowmix wrote: post #687
WalterBright wrote: post #643

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk's money came from creating a business that was worth a lot of money. I.e. he created his wealth. It was not transferred to him. The same goes for Bezos, Jobs, Gates, etc.

The “created vs transferred” thing is more nuanced than that. At some point, accumulated wealth becomes power, and that power can be used to pull energy, attention, labor, and public resources out of the system for one person’s agenda. And in Tesla’s case, the stock value creation story is insanely unorthodox, to be charitable. A lot of that valuation was supercharged by years of market-moving hype done personally by…

If TSLA is in a bubble, at some point it will implode. And then the wealth that was created is destroyed - it won't be transferred out of the company, either.

> Musk helped put Trump back in power, and the relationship looks openly transactional.

Both parties accept help from wealthy people, and yes, they do expect something in return. I don't see that Musk got anything out of it, though. Musk received 0 benefit from DOGE.

> But that does not make up for the harm, distortion, and unaccountable power being exercised now.

What power do you think Musk is exercising now?

> He is also benefiting from an administration where white collar crime and regulatory accountability seem to have basically stopped being real things.

I gave you examples of no accountability in government things. I don't see any decrease in accountability.

> Even today, Tesla appears to be the highest P/E outlier in the S&P 500 among profitable companies. So the market is not just valuing the current business. It is valuing the story, the hype,

Sure. And I bought TSLA years ago. I didn't believe his FSD hype. But he delivered on it anyway. If TSLA stock implodes, it's only going to hurt the shareholders, not you.

> and increasingly Musk’s ability to buy influence to stay outta trouble.

What influence is he buying?

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#816

Post by WalterBright »

c22 wrote: post #679
WalterBright wrote: post #677

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where was all this wealth 200 years ago? Inflation is caused by printing money not backed by goods and services. Inflation is another form of taxation.

The vast majority of it was stored underground as petrochemicals. A fact made immediately apparent by looking at like any chart. Is this a serious conversation?

Are you really positing that America's wealth is due to petrochemicals?

Consider Japan, for example. No petrochemicals. No natural resources. Economic powerhouse.

Consider Russia. Floating on oil. Not a wealthy country.

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#817

Post by WalterBright »

Unmotivator2677 wrote: post #778
WalterBright wrote: post #600

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you really think the economy is zero sum? For example, who was Elon Musk's wealth transferred from? What do you think about all that money being invested into AI? Is that "extreme short term profit maximization"?

I don't know but I will speak: Cantillon Effect How much does your bread cost and how much did it cost in the 90s? Where do you think all that value gone? Has bread some what become much better quality or something? Are they lacing it with gold? They are stealing from your pocket, in many ways than one. Another point to consider is that musk wealth is on paper only, real value if he wanted to cash out would turn much…

American bread was worse in previous decades. Now I have many more options, and I buy organic bread.

> They are stealing from your pocket, in many ways than one.

You need a more compelling argument than that. Agriculture is not a particularly lucrative industry.

> Another point to consider is that musk wealth is on paper only, real value if he wanted to cash out would turn much smaller, it's all hypothetical.

Back to "what is value?" There is no such thing as intrinsic value. Value is what people are willing to pay for something. That's it. If people are willing to pay more, then the value is higher. If the are only willing to pay less, then the value is lower. And certainly the value of x is different for different people, and varies moment by moment.

The value of a TSLA share of stock is no different from the value of that piece of paper you have that says "One Dollar" on it.

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#818

Post by WalterBright »

AngryData wrote: post #730
WalterBright wrote: post #600

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you really think the economy is zero sum? For example, who was Elon Musk's wealth transferred from? What do you think about all that money being invested into AI? Is that "extreme short term profit maximization"?

On the short term every economy is effectively zero sum. Even if you invented something magical that is worth trillions, the economy can't pull trillions of dollars out of nowhere in any short period of time without devaluing everything else.

Sigh. A brief explanation of how money is created. If I create something of value, you can go to a bank and borrow money based on that value. Where did that borrowed money come from? The bank created it out of thin air! Yes, that's right. Created value can be transformed into money. The books balance. And this is unlimited.

What happens when you pay back the money? Yes, it is symmetric, the money is destroyed! (wild, isn't it!)

So why does the bank do this? They make money on the interest from the loan.

This is how "free banking" works, and it applies to your scenario. Creating value does not devalue the rest of the economy. The supply of money is not fixed, it rises and falls relative to the value in the economy.

I know this is a difficult thing to describe briefly, there are college degrees on this topic.

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#819

Post by WalterBright »

ryandrake wrote: post #784
WalterBright wrote: post #600

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you really think the economy is zero sum? For example, who was Elon Musk's wealth transferred from? What do you think about all that money being invested into AI? Is that "extreme short term profit maximization"?

When it comes to what actually matters, people's standards of living, what matters most is percentages, which are zero sum. In a simplified economy where 10 people have $100 each, everyone is worth 10% of the economy, have about equal buying power, equal standards of living, equal political power, and so on. If one of those people suddenly "creates wealth" and now has $100,000, then the average value of the dollar go…

> We are all slightly worse off every time there is a new billionaire.

I responded to the zero sum theory in another reply.

I'll just say that every country that decided to get rid of its wealthy people wound up poorer, a lot poorer.

For a specific example, Massachusetts has a luxury yacht industry. The government decided that they wanted to tax the wealthy, and slapped a hefty tax on yachts. The billionaires simply took their yacht buying elsewhere, and the yacht industry collapsed, costing thousands of highly paid jobs. The government rescinded the tax.

Re: The West forgot how to make things, now it’s forgetting how to code

#820

Post by WalterBright »

nobodyandproud wrote: post #810
WalterBright wrote: post #807

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A free market requires laws that protect property rights and prevent people from using force and fraud against others. "Your signature on the contract or your brains" is not a free market transaction.

Why does it require it? To what aim does this serve the market? A check against fraud and protection of property rights can be achieved through force and violence and the threat of violence, so that answer seems inadequate. Likewise, supply and demand is definitely affected by government policies. The supply of labor, for example, by allowing or disallowing near shore or off-shore work with steep penalties. Or allowi…

> Why does it require it?

The idea is that transactions then become mutually beneficial.

You cannot vote away the Law of Supply and Demand any more than you can legislate pi=3.00

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