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Miscellanea: The War in Iran

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Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#811

Post by thrance »

scoofy wrote: post #471
goda90 wrote: post #463

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In January, the youtuber Technology Connections did a whole rant about how ridiculous it is that we're not rushing as quickly as possible to get off of non-renewable energy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtQ9nt2ZeGM

It really is crazy that environmentalists were like, "hey look, free energy," and suddenly everyone started screaming "No, boo! We like the way things are!" I have a friend who has never used an induction range before that is dead set that he never wants one. I just don't get it.

When you realize that trillions have been spent on anti-renewables propaganda over the last half-century, it gets easier to understand. Many people have been indoctrinated into fighting tooth and nail for the right of oil companies to destroy the environment.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#812

Post by pibaker »

AYBABTME wrote: post #665

I think this analysis is missing the big picture. (1) reducing oil shipments to China is good posturing for the US; hence Venezuela and Iran ahead of 2028. These are shaping operations. China suffers more from these conflicts than the US. (2) Iran isn't the only one who can control passage throught the strait. All gulf countries can do so. If Iran can cheaply cut off passage, so can Saudi Arabia and UAE and everyone…

> China suffers more from these conflicts than the US.

You are missing the even bigger picture. Look back a few decades. The 1973 oil crisis was not just a temporary inflationary event, but the starting point of various technological and political investments that sought reduction in reliance on oil — engine efficiency regulations, nuclear power in France, early research into solar energy. The current war will likely have a similar effect. Suddenly you can't rely on imported fuel any more. And if you look around for alternative energy sources, Chinese solar and batteries and EVs suddenly look a lot more attractive than two months ago. And this is before you factor in the rest of the world reassessing their relation to the US and their confidence in the competence of US military and diplomacy.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#813

Post by pydry »

YZF wrote: post #673
pydry wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These days conflating criticism of israel with anti semitism is a very clear, very obvious and very reliable racist calling card. Mitch McConnell (adherent of the great replacement theory) accusing Joe Kent of anti semitism gave the accusation the same gravitas it would have if Strom Thurmond or the Grand wizard of the KKK did it. i.e. it only serves to underscore the accuser's racism.

Those days people that hate Jews claiming they're "only anti-Zionists" are being white washed while synagogues are shot at and people displaying anything Jewish are attacked on the streets in western countries. Antisemitism is at all times high. And not the "critical of Israel" type of antisemitism. The "jews control the weather", "space lasers from mars" and "let's kill all of them" type of antisemitism is rampant.…

>Those days people that hate Jews claiming they're "only anti-Zionists"

That's mainly what the more racist zionists claim.

Most genuine anti semites are up front about their distaste for Jews and they tend to be on the far, far right.

There's a simple test to distinguish the genuine anti racists and the disguised racists, too:

* I condemn the holocaust unreservedly. It was commited by a regime of absolute evil against innocent people.

* I condemn the Gazan genocide unreservedly. It was commited by a regime of absolute evil against innocent people.

If you're completely happy repeating both of these sentences like I am then you're not one of them.

If you engage in deflection or denial of one of these two UN recognized genocides, well, you're either an anti semite or it's equal and opposite.

>Comments like yours are the racist ones

Im gonna go ahead and assume you will either ignore me or fail the antiracist test.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#814

Post by donkeybeer »

theonething wrote: post #514
khhu2bnn wrote: post #26

The amazing part to me is just the perceived invincibility this small circle within the US administration has. You can find dozens of articles with a search limited to Feb 1~Feb 27, plenty of analysis warning of the risks that have now become reality, everything - the strait, no revolution, further radicalization, critically low US stockpiles, abandoning other US partners, gulf destabilization, etc. In the fantasy im…

> plenty of analysis warning of the risks that have now become reality You can also easily find analysis warning of the opposite: the risks of not invading Iran. See Nazi Germany and WW2 for an example what happens when you fail to contain a belligerently rogue country.

Israel is the country engaged in Lebensraum, so if you want to make a WW2 analogy, Israel is nazi germany here.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#815

Post by thrance »

nozzlegear wrote: post #657
3eb7988a1663 wrote: post #591

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am just as annoyed at the Democrats, but let us not always pretend the Republicans lack agency. The majority Republican congress could do any number of things to curb his power, but they choose to abstain.

What would the democrats need to do for you to not be annoyed at them?

Literally anything. They are incredibly passive, we never hear anything from anyone of them. Trump is running the country to the ground live, each day going on unhinged nonsensical rants and doing obviously insane shit. Democrats should be banking on it, counter-messaging 24/7 but instead they're more unpopular than ever. Their leaders are still clinging on to these "moderate" and "bipartisan" lines when the voter base has made clear that they want the GOP obliterated and all of its members tried for treason. The democratic establishment only seems to concern itself with fighting the growing progressive wing of its own party, while holding unto their hard pro-Israel line which already cost them the previous election.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#816

Post by dxdm »

AYBABTME wrote: post #665

I think this analysis is missing the big picture. (1) reducing oil shipments to China is good posturing for the US; hence Venezuela and Iran ahead of 2028. These are shaping operations. China suffers more from these conflicts than the US. (2) Iran isn't the only one who can control passage throught the strait. All gulf countries can do so. If Iran can cheaply cut off passage, so can Saudi Arabia and UAE and everyone…

This is an interesting angle, and I could see how the prospect of reducing the flow of oil to China, and also to teetering democracies in Europe, might have occurred to the US decision makers as beneficial. However, the question is, how much reduction for how long, and how critical this would be for China.

And the point remains that this operation has been started in a way that leaves the US in a weaker strategic position, not just in the Gulf, but also, crucially, in the far east. It has now become harder to contain China, both in the medium term by the reduction of US military capabilities both globally and in-theater by pulling out strategic defensive assets from South Korea and Japan; but also long-term, by putting themselves into a situation where they have to do that, retroactively, after painting themselves into a corner elsewhere, therefore undermining their posture as a credible, rational actor that can be relied on to oppose China's ambition in the region.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#817

Post by donkeybeer »

pphysch wrote: post #307
ReptileMan wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> Return them to stone age until the leadership becomes reasonable. Worth reflecting on this sentence. What is "reasonable" supposed to entail here? ETA: "Become secular" is a wild demand from theocratic regime that wants to "Kill Amalek and Build the Third Temple".

I think Iran gaining nukes and a strong military and reduction of US interest in Israel would mostly solve the problems. It will cause a balancing of power and Israel less willing to start random wars and violence. Iran will be a shitty country to its own people as always of course but the Israel csused chaos would mostly be reduced a lot.

Alternately Israels nukes are made legal and decommissionied and or brought to neutral third parties for safekeeping, that would significantly reduce the incentive for its neighbors to want to make nukes. As long as israel has nukes, its neighbors would never feel safe without and keep trying to build nukes.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#818

Post by the_af »

ReptileMan wrote: post #751
the_af wrote: post #518

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TFA argues that the Iranian regime works "bottom up", and there's no "select few" group of leaders that can be removed or changed that would topple the regime or make it change course. TFA argues that the US fundamentally misread the situation (it also argues that Israel didn't misread it but also doesn't care what happens in Iran, they just want to destabilize it for short-term gains, mainly benefiting Netanyahu; bu…

Once again there is no regime in which military coup by those in the middle is impossible. And my solution still remains viable - returning their tech tree to pre WWI levels will defang them no matter their power structure.

> Once again there is no regime in which military coup by those in the middle is impossible.

Just very unlikely in this case. TFA explains its case and why yours is very unlikely; while you're just repeating your opinion based on faith ("once again"), with no analysis and no demonstrable knowledge of the specifics.

> And my solution still remains viable - returning their tech tree to pre WWI levels will defang them no matter their power structure

TFA explains why this isn't feasible without massive loss of life and dollars spent, and furthermore, it also explains why keeping the Strait open and low risk is unfeasible without boots on the ground (not just strikes from the skies), which, in turn, would be very costly for the US in Iran. I mean, all of this is addressed in the article.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#819

Post by triceratops »

leonidasrup wrote: post #792
triceratops wrote: post #556

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Germany is dependent on China for PV panels This is gas brain thinking. Panels aren't burned to make electricity. If literally everyone stops selling you panels (nearly impossible) you continue generating electricity the old way. Nothing bad happens. The panels you already have continue working. Other countries make panels too. India has a glut right now. https://solarmagazine.com/2025/08/india-solar-supply-chain-f…

You can't base energy of an modern industrial country on purely solar panels alone, they don't produce any electricity in the night and have electric output reduced by weather. You have always to combine them with other power sources for backup. For Germany it's domestic wind + domestic coal + imported gas. In case you ask for energy storage in Germany, the amounts are quite low. https://openenergytracker.org/en/docs…

So you admit then that using as much solar and wind and storage as possible reduces the need for imported gas. As such it should be a national priority.
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