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De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

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Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#811

Post by datsci_est_2015 »

rcxdude wrote: post #787
jmyeet wrote: post #783

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm an historical materialist. That means I don't believe religion, ethnicity or political philosophy ever drives international conflict. It's always, always, always material interests. Those other things are just an excuse, something to rile up the populace into supporting the government and dying on the front line. So some think Duginism and a Greater Russia is driving Putin's expanionist activity in Ukraine (inclu…

Eh, I don't think that is really a consistent, useful model. It's not that material interests are irrelevant, but ideological alignment even at the most Machiavellian level constrains what's possible, if not outright defining where lines are drawn. You can't ignore how politics happens within countries when looking at how they interact with each other.

Also, messaging matters. To make a crass analogy, if I punch you in the face and tell you it’s because I just felt like it, vs. because I thought you slept with my girlfriend, you’re going to respond completely differently (after the initial surprise).

In fact, everyone who bore witness to the punch would come away with different opinions depending on the reason I gave for punching you. And those opinions have knock-on effects (“We shouldn’t come to this part of town anymore, people just get punched out of nowhere…”)

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#812

Post by Peaches4Rent »

elAhmo wrote: post #522
hnburnsy wrote: post #77

For those who are not bothering to read this,the article essentially states that de-dollarization is happening in pockets (e.g., reserves down to ~58-60%, Treasuries foreign ownership at 30%), but the dollar's core dominance persists. What would replace it? I guess the options are Yuan, Gold, Oil or maybe BRICS in the future, none of which are safe, stable, and liquid.

I can't believe people actually bring BRICS in serious discussions.

Explain why. That's more than half the world's population

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#813

Post by datsci_est_2015 »

weslleyskah wrote: post #793
jmyeet wrote: post #786

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Under control how? France has Macron siding with Le Pen to keep Melanchon out of power. The AfD's power is growing and we'll see if there exists a coalition that can form a government without them after the next election. Many expect Nigel Farrage to be the next Prime Minister of the UK. This is why people say fascism is capitalism in crisis. All of these countries are choosing fascism rather than any socialist movem…

> "Western social values" are a luxury easily abandoned when you can't afford your rent. Populist fascism is rising because people are increasingly desperate and there's no alternative because the centrists are united with the fascists to crush any leftist momentum. I think this is the most important and crucial part of what you've said in here. If you look, East germany former communists states were the biggest vote…

> What I understand is that the left wing parties of today's society have forgotten about the 'conservative' socialism that focused on providing good education, food, housing and employment for the general population.

I feel the shifting definitions of liberal (US) and conservative taking place under our feet. Suddenly conservatives care about public welfare (but only for the in-group), and liberals prefer laissez faire economy (as opposed to the Trump tariff tantrums).

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#814

Post by mmooss »

joe_mamba wrote: post #659
mmooss wrote: post #657

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe you can be friends without always agreeing, and even when competing.

Not when the competition is a zero sum game over critical resources. This isn't a game of table tennis, it's about competition over dominance. Friendships are just the media facing image. In reality, if a country can gain an advantage over the other they see as an economic adversary, and has the means to enforce it without repercussions, they'll do it. Then they'll meet up in front of the media, shake hands and gasli…

The lowest common denominator, racial ("shared blood", "tribal", and also "culture" in this context) perspective is exceeded time and again, and the ones that do exceed it are the most free, most prosperous, and most powerful - NATO being a clear example, but also all the Pacific alliances around China. The poorest and least safe are the ones that follow your advice, places like Somalia. Or look at the US and NATO ten years ago compared to today.

Most countries can be subdivided seemingly infinitely into groups that could find reasons to fight each other. But humans have other common 'denominators', much higher than that. Spain, the UK, the US, France, China, and many others are unions of subcultures.

You can see so much better in the world. Instead of insisting that evil is inevitable - making you a victim of it - you can work for good. Our ancestors have had great success and made it easy for us to follow.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#815

Post by datsci_est_2015 »

sneak wrote: post #750
jacquesm wrote: post #2

It's not losing it so much as that it is being destroyed on purpose.

By whom, for what purpose?

The Trump cabinet is explicitly determined to improve its trade imbalance (export / import) and has spoken about the US dollar’s relative strength as a weakness in trade imbalance.

There’s a delicate, fine line between dedollarization and a heavily weakened dollar, especially when the methods used are viewed as fickle and capricious (tariffs, threats). So it’s basically four choices:

  - Dedollarization is not happening (#nothingeverhappens)
  - Dedollarization is happening, but not because of anything the Trump admin is doing (lol)
  - Dedollarization is happening and the Trump admin is either causing it or exacerbating it, despite not coming out explicitly favoring it (they’re idiots)
  - Dedollarization is happening and it’s being orchestrated by the Trump admin (5d chess / malicious actors)

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#816

Post by datsci_est_2015 »

tclancy wrote: post #377
nish__ wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True. Good way to pay employees less. Edit: to the downvoters, did I lie?

You seem to be talking about an alternative universe where employers are being paid in a different currency.

To be generous, asset holders are hurt less by a weakening dollar than non-asset holders (all else equal). To put it another way, do you think billionaires will let themselves suffer before their employees suffer?

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#817

Post by lenkite »

jmyeet wrote: post #783
prennert wrote: post #774

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They felt like they'd eventually get swallowed unless they did something and the end result was WWI. And WW2 if you think about it. I think this exactly how the US administration _feels_. Alexandr Dugin proposed spheres of influence. Russia starts acting on those. China is getting more powerful. Its now or never.

I'm an historical materialist. That means I don't believe religion, ethnicity or political philosophy ever drives international conflict. It's always, always, always material interests. Those other things are just an excuse, something to rile up the populace into supporting the government and dying on the front line. So some think Duginism and a Greater Russia is driving Putin's expanionist activity in Ukraine (inclu…

> But NATO was never going to expand to include Ukraine.

Agreed on all points but this. This is just factually wrong. Ukraine formally declared its intention to pursue NATO membership which was accepted by the NATO council.

The most significant early push occurred at the Bucharest Summit (April 2008). Ukraine (along with Georgia) requested a Membership Action Plan (MAP) - the standard preparatory program for aspiring members. NATO's declaration welcomed Ukraine's aspirations and stated that "these countries will become members of NATO". Ukraine's parliament repealed its non-bloc status and amended its constitution to enshrine irreversible pursuit of NATO (and EU) membership as a national goal. Then, NATO officially listed Ukraine as an aspiring member.

In the Vilnius Summit, NATO even declared that "Ukraine’s future is in NATO" and its path is "irreversible".

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#819

Post by datsci_est_2015 »

roenxi wrote: post #676
legitster wrote: post #596

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Obviously, but we're comparing apples and oranges here. - Iraq was never a major oil concern for the US . Perhaps maybe stabilizing global oil prices - but the primary beneficiaries were actually our European and Asian allies. - We never just "took" the oil for our domestic market (which is what we are basically doing in Venezuela) - Even policymakers who have publicly admitted that Iraq was a massive intelligence an…

> - Even policymakers who have publicly admitted that Iraq was a massive intelligence and political failure all agree that regional stability was always the main goal. And in their spare time they pretend to sell bridges to people? Nobody sane would believe that invading a country promotes regional stability. The idea is absurdist, the point of invading a country is destabilising it and disrupting any power that the…

> Nobody sane would believe that invading a country promotes regional stability.

Then you should read about some of the biggest influencers in US foreign policy since WW2. There’s one guy whose entire career was spent essentially trying to convince the president / military brass to bomb enemies into submission: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curtis_LeMay

I’m sure you’ve also heard of Henry Kissinger.

Anyway, pretty strong history of US political figures dehumanizing foreign populations, justified by some western moral superiority. Direct through line to the Bush presidency (last of the neoconservatives).

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#820

Post by Herring »

consumer451 wrote: post #274

Related is the PM of Canada’s speech at Davos today. I don’t think that I have heard such a blunt assessment of the past and future from a politician, ever. This may be a historically significant speech. https://www.youtube.com/live/dE981Z_TaVo?t=100

He is pissed. Damn. This will take a very long time to clean up… Assuming it’s reversible.
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