Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

cnbc.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

811–820 of 1001 posts

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#811

Post by KoolKat23 »

magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

This makes a lot of sense, although I wouldn't give them the credit of being so coherent in their understanding/targeting of what they were doing.

In my opinion the reason it backfired, what they proposed wouldn't merely cause a confidence in crisis, but also implied a fundamental shift in the market and the way it worked, this would also have to be priced in, hence the drop. There was no longer necessarily a "buy the dip, the market will go up at some point".

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#812

Post by zzzeek »

magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

that assumes a massive amount of economic understanding and intelligence on the part of the President that has simply been completely unobserved for his entire career.

occam's razor provides much better explanations here. He's an idiot obsessed with dominance games and thinks a tariff on a country means that country pays a tax to the US. He thinks trade deficits are bad, just like if I buy a toaster from Target, now I have a "trade deficit" with Target and I need to find something they'll buy from me.

He's a total dangerous moron and these attempts to come up with 11-dimensional chess rationalizations are misguided.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#813

Post by cmrdporcupine »

ohgr wrote: post #677
jmward01 wrote: post #617

Why does the market like this? Tariffs are in place and unpredictability is now the norm. Tomorrow something new crazy will come out and then the next day and the next day. Even if US markets like this right now, the long term damage has been done. Betting on the medium-long term seems questionable at best.

The market doesn't like this. All the professional investors got out ages ago (check out Berkshire's dumping) and are dumping to bagholders. Large fund holders are hanging on because they still make fees and it keeps their AUM up there and everyone else is dying at the same rate. Foreign investors are pulling bonds out because the currency is at risk. The market is being manipulated daily and there is no involvement…

You're making me feel better about missing the bump today. I got out over a week ago before things went completely bonkers. Was planning on getting back in when I had a sense the volatility had diminished.

Came back from a meeting to find things were halfway back to where I sold and started to feel bummed.

Guess we'll see what tomorrow brings.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#814

Post by rchaud »

amirhirsch wrote: post #260
fancyfredbot wrote: post #107

Too late for everyone who spent massively on flying in stock ahead of the tariff deadline. Too late for those forced to sell financial assets in order to pay margin calls. Too late for those working on projects involving foreign manufacturers which have now been cancelled due to tariff uncertainty. Too late for those who lost sales while they figured out pricing. Too early for the people fundraising to build US manuf…

No one will make long-term investments in US manufacturing capabilities in response to policy that will revert in 4 years.

The White House can pressure red states to offer companies sweetheart deals so the President can take credit. If they refuse, he pulls his support for them come election time.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#815

Post by [deleted] »

Herring wrote: post #552
slg wrote: post #481

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Genuinely wondering why so many people are still giving the Trump administration this much benefit of the doubt that their moves are strategically sound? We're really still doing the whole "3D chess" thing with this guy after he has shown over and over again that he mostly just acts on impulse and the primary qualification for his advisors is loyalty over any type of intelligence or expertise?

[flagged]

[deleted]

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#816

Post by saulpw »

arunabha wrote: post #796

I am beginning to wonder if there is an actual plan behind these moves beyond creating uncertainty in trading partner's minds. The stated goal of the administration is to 'reindustrialize' the US by manufacturing more of the goods consumed within the US itself. To get to that goal, tariff barriers are just one part of the story. For tariffs to be effective towards getting to the strategic goal, they need to be couple…

I'm sorry, but only in April of 2025 you are wondering if there is an actual plan? Were you paying any attention at all from 2016-2020?

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#817

Post by j4dmebbe »

hayst4ck wrote: post #606
magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

Incompetence is way more dangerous than people realize. These tariffs are China's Four Pests campaign. Mao, a very trump like figure, decided to protect Chinese crops by destroying sparrows that were picking at them. Killing sparrows killed a predator of insects which did more damage to crops. This coupled with reality denying policies and ignoring experts led to one of the most devastating famines the world has ever…

[dead]

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#819

Post by dmazin »

saulpw wrote: post #816
arunabha wrote: post #796

I am beginning to wonder if there is an actual plan behind these moves beyond creating uncertainty in trading partner's minds. The stated goal of the administration is to 'reindustrialize' the US by manufacturing more of the goods consumed within the US itself. To get to that goal, tariff barriers are just one part of the story. For tariffs to be effective towards getting to the strategic goal, they need to be couple…

I'm sorry, but only in April of 2025 you are wondering if there is an actual plan? Were you paying any attention at all from 2016-2020?

I mean, Peter Navarro's tariff plan is a plan. It's just an absurdly fringe/incompetent plan.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#820

Post by f33d5173 »

jmward01 wrote: post #617

Why does the market like this? Tariffs are in place and unpredictability is now the norm. Tomorrow something new crazy will come out and then the next day and the next day. Even if US markets like this right now, the long term damage has been done. Betting on the medium-long term seems questionable at best.

The unpredictability was already priced in. Markets were down substantially from january even on april 2nd. The tariffs are also being priced in, since the markets are still down from april 2nd. Nothing trump has done is good, it just isn't as bad as it could have been.
Post reply on HN