US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU • Hacker News Board

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#811

Post by t_tsonev » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 4:51 PM UTC

aurareturn wrote: post #372

doener wrote: post #225

"This guy cracked the tariff formula: @orthonormalist It’s simply the nation’s trade deficit with us divided by the nation’s exports to us. Yes. Really. Vietnam: Exports 136.6, Imports 13.1 Deficit = 123.5 123.5/136.6 = 90%" https://x.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1907568233239949431

Vietnam: Exports 136.6, Imports 13.1 Deficit = 123.5 Taking Vietnam as an example, keep in mind that the trade deficit calculation only uses physical goods. Vietnam exports low value physical goods to the US. The US sells high value non-physical services such as Microsoft office, ChatGPT, Netflix, Facebook ads, iOS Appstore fees, iCloud subscriptions, etc to Vietnam. Other services include engineering consultants, US…

That's true for most other places, including the EU. With services included, the trade imbalance is negligible. Source:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_...

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#812

Post by hijodelsol » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 4:51 PM UTC

MR4D wrote: post #806

svara wrote: post #750

It's true that free trade is hugely beneficial to the US economy as a whole, particularly with the USD being the reserve currency. The flow of goods is balanced by a flow of US dollars to other countries, which are ultimately cycled back into the US financial system - enabling budget deficits and an abundance of capital to invest in high growth industries. The flip side of this is that it also drives inequality - the…

The deficit is 2 trillion. Income taxes on individuals are 2.4 trillion. How much do you expect to raise taxes to cover that gap? You double my taxes and I’m in the welfare line. Further, and this is not referenced enough - the US must rollover ~9 trillion in treasuries this year. The lower the interest rate to do that, the better. Otherwise it increase the deficit even more. The only way this ends is one of two path…

The deficit is not in fact 2 trillion. Source: https://www.bea.gov/system/files/trad0225.png (and many other official documents)

Also, this is a false dichotomy.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#813

Post by MichaelMoser123 » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 4:54 PM UTC

Naive question of a foreigner: I see a lot of approval on the youtube comments to Trump's liberation day speech and over at twitter. Now the consensus on HN is diametrically opposed. My question: why do some people think that this is a good idea? Why is there such a huge rift in US society and how do you plan to bridge this gap?

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#814

Post by sdsd » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 4:54 PM UTC

iteratethis wrote: post #75

This won't bring home manufacturing but let's say that it will... The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing. I saw a video recently explaining how sectors like the military, construction and the automotive industry each have 100K+ positions that they are unable to fill. A return to manufacturing adds to that shortage. Apparently there's some 7 million young men of working age that are...missing in…

In real life, people are spending years looking for jobs making enough to barely survive. I should tell them about your video you saw, if only they know.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#815

Post by carabiner » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 4:54 PM UTC

roxolotl wrote: post #479

Aside from everything else one thing what strikes me as particularly insane is how it’s not even defensible as a protective measure. My favorite everyday olive oil comes from Tunisia. They now have a 38% tariff on them. There are no out of work olive farmers in the US. The orange man wanted tariffs, the orange man is going to get tariffs. Now we have to hope the American people aren’t so dumb as to still be convinced…

We get a lot of titanium from China. That's because the largest natural Ti deposits are in Eurasia. That is due to geology, not politics, and now US companies who need it (read: high performance transport, medical products) will pay substantially more for it.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#816

Post by niklasbuschmann » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 4:57 PM UTC

TaurenHunter wrote: post #599

I don't see anyone mentioning that the United States needs to manage its massive national debt, currently in the trillions, by issuing Treasury securities. These securities mature at varying intervals and require continuous "rolling" or refinancing to pay off old debt with new borrowing. Significant rollovers are expected from April through September 2025, with additional short-term maturities due by June. Higher int…

This is just delusional. Everybody is looking for some reason that makes this less stupid than it looks, but there is none.

Intentionally causing a recession to lower the debt burden makes no sense, neither politically nor economically. Besides that the US is not some third world country that issues debt in a currency they have no sovereignty over.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#817

Post by regularization » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 4:59 PM UTC

TaurenHunter wrote: post #599

I don't see anyone mentioning that the United States needs to manage its massive national debt, currently in the trillions, by issuing Treasury securities. These securities mature at varying intervals and require continuous "rolling" or refinancing to pay off old debt with new borrowing. Significant rollovers are expected from April through September 2025, with additional short-term maturities due by June. Higher int…

> The cost of servicing this debt — paying interest rather than reducing principal — is already a major budget item, surpassing Medicare, approaching Defense and Social Security levels.

Military ("defense") expenditures are always understated. Over $180 billion in veteran's benefits were paid last year. This is not counted as military expenditures. Also the debt you talk about is to not only pay for the money sent to Israel and the Ukraine last year, but still for the adventures in Afghanistan, Iraq etc. That just becomes generic debt in the skewed analysis, alienated from its past military adventures. The military budget is higher than stated.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#818

Post by dismalaf » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 4:59 PM UTC

lumb63 wrote: post #625

Everyone is quick to deride this move as stupid. I don’t disagree that there are downsides to the approach, but there is a set of very real national problems that this might address. For instance, globalization and offshoring of production has made goods cheaper for consumers, but what about the former domestic producers who could not compete, and do not have the skills or capital to find a new job which pays as well…

You can't look at this move as something in isolation. Trump has also completely flipped geopolitics on their head.

Here's other things he's done:

- Threatened Canada

- Threatened Greenland/Denmark

- Supported Russia (it's obvious)

- Told NATO allies export F-35s will be nerfed just in case we come into conflict

Americans are already very insular, I don't think you all realise just how much you've pissed off Europe and Canada (I live in both places throughout the year, family in both)...

American multinationals have benefited greatly from trade with other countries... Look around the world: iPhones and Apple products everywhere, Windows computers, Google dominates search, the USA is a top travel destination, American weapons are used by most allies, etc...

Right now in Canada and European countries we're talking about completely cutting out all US trade and travel. Like all of it. It won't be policy but the US has completely destroyed all goodwill and cultural influence it has across the "West".

Because of immense hatred of Russia, China is now the "lesser evil" and pretty much all developed countries will band together. And not only will countries move on from US hegemony, they'll accept any pain that comes with it because Russia is threatening Europe and the USA is threatening their neighbours. Without the geopolitical aspect, the US might have won this trade war. But no one is going to bow to the US to then get sold out and conquered by Russia...

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#819

Post by qingcharles » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 5:01 PM UTC

ccorcos wrote: post #686

lumb63 wrote: post #625

Everyone is quick to deride this move as stupid. I don’t disagree that there are downsides to the approach, but there is a set of very real national problems that this might address. For instance, globalization and offshoring of production has made goods cheaper for consumers, but what about the former domestic producers who could not compete, and do not have the skills or capital to find a new job which pays as well…

I really want to read a good response to this comment. I have the same questions, and I’ll add one more thought. Lots of people talk about how the US should be more like Europe. People say the average European has a better quality of life, etc. Well, Europe has tariffs…

Europe has tariffs. Everywhere has tariffs. Europe doesn't have tariffs like this.

Europe has higher taxes. But, somehow, despite the inefficiencies of governments, this produces a happier populace who work less and vacation more.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#820

Post by keithxm23 » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 5:03 PM UTC

svara wrote: post #750

It's true that free trade is hugely beneficial to the US economy as a whole, particularly with the USD being the reserve currency. The flow of goods is balanced by a flow of US dollars to other countries, which are ultimately cycled back into the US financial system - enabling budget deficits and an abundance of capital to invest in high growth industries. The flip side of this is that it also drives inequality - the…

> but many on this very site would need to give up a little bit of their privilege to reduce the pain felt by many of their fellow citizens.

Agreed. However, by imposing tariffs it is not the privileged who are going to be affected the most. The pain is felt most by the low-skill workers you mentioned earlier.

If the solution was instead along the lines of changing tax-brackets to tax the 'privileged' more, that might have better addressed the problem you mention in the beginning.