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Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

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Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#811

Post by ncpa-cpl »

cutemonster wrote: post #674
ncpa-cpl wrote: post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yes, starting from now, protesting becomes more risky (you may go to jail for years if you get caught second time). But just a week ago, it was mostly harmless (yes, some people get arrested for few days... Even one arrest record is enough to be disqualified for or complicate any visa or moving abroad plan :(

Is it the other countries who don't like arrest records, or can Putin's regime prevent people with these records, from getting a visa elsewhere?

It is common for visa applications to have a question like "Have you ever been arrested or convicted for any offence or crime, even if the arrest did not result in a conviction". And residency applications usually ask for a police record.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#812

Post by dan-robertson »

sharpneli wrote: post #438
dan-robertson wrote: post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a counter argument is that these measures allow the situation to be described in Russia as a ‘west vs Russia’ situation which lines up well with media narratives people have been hearing for years rather than a ‘Russian army sent to kill Ukrainians’ which is less popular (eg many Russians will have close ties to some people in Ukraine). It feels to me that the best thing western governments could do is to sig…

It's abundantly clear what the conditions are: Stop the attack against their neighbour and the sanctions are lifted. Anything less let's Putin get away once again. And right now every country in Europe, and their citizens, are sick of Putin getting away every single time. I do have a personal stake in this. We're the only western neighbour of Russia that is not in NATO and has not been attacked by them after the fall…

It’s clear those conditions are necessary but not that they are sufficient. There must be a path where it is obvious to the Russian people and leadership that if certain things are done then the sanctions will be immediately lifted. Currently it seems plausible that sanctions could remain after meeting those conditions as a kind of punishment, or just because they can be sticky (that is, easier to impose than to retract). If one is to believe that the reason for the war is entirely Putin, and if the people and others in power understood that removing Putin/ending the war would lead to a lifting of the sanctions and potentially significant improvements to the status quo before the war, there would be much stronger incentives to do that. Without knowing that sanctions would be lifted, someone who replaced Putin would be left in the unenviable position of t dealing with the economic consequences of the earlier sanctions/foreign business exits. For similar reasons there should be a way for Russia to pull out while saving face so that the cost of doing it is less. It seems unlikely to me that Putin will be replaced because of the war so, if one is to believe that he particularly cares about his image and perception, having a face-saving route out is particularly important. But I don’t know what that would look like.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#813

Post by lostmsu »

akrymski wrote: post #551
lostmsu wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are only so many jails, temporary detention facilities, and judges to give the verdicts.

Tell that to Stalin

In his times there were no easy ways to organize masses of people due to lack of efficient decentralized means of communication.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#814

Post by gruez »

mbesto wrote: post #108
jacquesm wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that there is plenty of evidence that this is really the case. Russians are crossing the border in unprecedented numbers, for instance: https://yle.fi/news/3-12345301 Flying is getting harder and harder so while the borders are still open (there is talk of martial law in Russia, which, even though it was just denied does not seem to have much effect on calming things down, in fact the denial seems to have the…

I think you missed the parent's comment. FTA: "Buses travelling from St. Petersburg to Helsinki, Tallinn and Riga are also fully booked." How do I prove: - This is true without actually seeing the data that buses are fully booked - Yle is a trustworthy media outlet and what they are saying is true - The Finnish government isn't booking the buses and then telling the media that buses are booked For the record - I beli…

>However, this is precisely the issue - what outlets do you really trust? Stuff that comes from BBC? CNN? New age "influencers" on YT/TikTok? This is the problem.

see: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/bounded-distrust

Or applying your comment to a domestic news event. Suppose fox news say there's a school shooting. How do you prove:

- This is true without actually going to the school to see the dead bodies

- The US government isn't hiring crisis actors and then telling the media that there's a shooting

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#815

Post by signatoremo »

pydry wrote: post #804
ericmay wrote: post #796

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think encircling your border with an offensive military alliance is very much like placing nukes 100 miles away and pointing them at you, yes. Why do you think NATO is an offensive alliance against Russia? > I wouldnt want the military alliance that destroyed Libya anywhere near me if I thought I could be a target. Having a strict "dont end up like Libya" policy is actually a fairly sensible. Odd isn’t it? It’s a…

>Why do you think NATO is an offensive alliance against Russia? It was set up specifically to oppose Moscow. It destroyed Libya. It is an offensive alliance without question. That doesnt excuse Russia, but Russia invading Ukraine doesnt excuse NATO either.

> It was set up specifically to oppose Moscow.

Wrong. It was set up to oppose the Soviet Union. Not Russia. Putin himself was talking about joining NATO. Regardless of how serious he was, no country consider joining an organization if it’s hostile to them.

> It is an offensive alliance without question.

Good thing you mentioned Libya, because that’s the only campaign that NATO involved in an offensive role. Even putting aside the circumstances of that campaign, an offensive organization that exists for 73 years but has only waged a single war, does that make any sense?

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#816

Post by jpindar »

itwillnotbeasy wrote: post #714

Leaving not because of the crimes of the current regime but because of the sanctions affecting their quality of life. I had many online "friends" and distant relatives from Russia, and most of them is like "not my business", i don't care about politics, even when you show pictures with all horrors of war. The other part is like: I'm against this, but what can we do, it's too risky to protest, i can get arrested for 1…

>can get arrested for 14 days

How sure of that are you? Some of Russians who are leaving claim it's years, and whatever the letter of the law is, do you trust the Russian government that much?

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#817

Post by wilkommen »

selfhoster11 wrote: post #792
maybelsyrup wrote: post #482

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes right, this is what I mean by "they find a way to be okay with it." Well-meaning and high-minded establishment types like Tom Friedman or Jeffrey Goldberg or David Frum wouldn't let themselves indulge in outright bloodlust; that would be too crass, too icky, and too honest. So they concoct little children's tales like "WW3 may be needed to end Putler" to rationalize it. This is an ego defense: a mechanism to prot…

Independently of whether it's a rationalisation or not, it might be the actual reality of the situation. Maybe WW3 actually _is_ needed to unseat him (though I hope it's not).

Well if that’s true then we just shouldn’t try to unseat him.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#818

Post by heneryville »

option wrote: post #462

I feel bad for the Russians who oppose putin. Anecdotal story: I am originally from Ukraine (now a US citizen) and currently host 2 Ukrainian refugees (relatives of mine). Yesterday we were walking in Santa Barbara, CA chatting in Russian (our native language). An angry American passed by listening to some Ukraine-Russian news on his phone (via speakers), recognized we speak Russian and angrily told us something alon…

If you're aware of any other refugees Ukrainian or Russian, that need a place in the USA, please let me know. My understanding is that the US is not letting in refugees yet though.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#819

Post by danlugo92 »

samstave wrote: post #285
tiahura wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EU needs to do something about Cyprus.

Do ypu recall when RUssian oligarch assets were seized in Cyprus as it was their 'carribean' money laundering banking system. Cyprus is literally the hoard of Russian oligarchs, yet I am sure they have been divesting from Cyprus to other locales.. of which were exposed in Panama Papers.. "the bank of switzerland is seizing accounts" (lit just reported n NPR) --- the author of the book on klepto is talking about laund…

Not Delaware, Wyoming.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#820

Post by skybrian »

jacquesm wrote: post #805
skybrian wrote: post #782

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UK Property and football clubs don't contribute to the Russian war effort, though. Yachts are not warships. Since trade with Russia has stopped, even selling them would make little difference. If anything we should be encouraging Russians to flee the country.

Those probably count for as much or more as the rest of the sanctions because they are the things the fat cats use to keep score.

The "fat cats" don't seem to be in charge? Russia is turning into a totalitarian regime.
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