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AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

blog.florianherrengt.com

801–810 of 811 posts

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#801
post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with making programming a regulated profession is who gets to define the regulations. You are probably imagining that it would be expert developers with a track record of success. I would bet on it being the people who write lots of blog posts and books about programming and give lots of conference keynotes - whether or not those people have any evidence base to support their advocated policies or any per…

> You are probably imagining that it would be expert developers with a track record of success. I'll admit I am unsure how such individuals would be chosen. I imagine it would be prudent to learn what processes are used by other licensed professions when choosing such individuals. > who write lots of blog posts and books about programming and give lots of conference keynotes I do not think people who write blog posts…

What you have to remember is that the people who decide who to appoint into these roles are another step removed from the problem domain. They will have no programming experience, or the ability to evaluate programming experience. They will try and rely on metrics or some "data-driven" approach to deciding who to appoint.

What kind of data will they look towards? Here, we have a precedent from frantically points to absolutely everywhere around us. So the people with "engagement" and "reputation", i.e. they gushed on their blog and farmed engagement, will be exactly who gets appointed to make the decisions.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#802
post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do have a genuine question though: what value are you adding at that point? If you don’t understand the system, don’t know what the code is doing and you’re mostly prompting an LLM to make the decisions and implementation for you, what exactly is your contribution? The ability to operate the tool isn’t much of a moat if everyone else has access to the same tool. I don’t review assembly produced by a compiler becaus…

Do you think it's impossible for someone to have a 25K line PR / diff but not know what's going on in the system? I ask because I've pushed some of this to the limit in my own testing and when I get the right building blocks / primitives in place in the repo, I'm able to get plans written in a way where I don't just describe what I want but specifically mention outcomes, verifications, constraints, etc. that utlimate…

> Do you think it's impossible for someone to have a 25K line PR / diff but not know what's going on in the system?

If you didn't write any of it? Yes, you only think you know what's going on.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#804
In Japan still many system integrator company that large corporation relies on continue using waterfall approach. They keep to out source a lot of engineering work for making design documents, manual testing, etc. They would keep to hire many middle class engineers.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#805

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing is for certain... the "learn to code" movement was a smug, pompous, and deeply unsympathetic response by privileged knowledge workers toward blue collar workers who experienced mass unemployment a couple times in the last decade, beginning in 2008, and it really pissed off a lot of the people it was directed at. I know a lot of people who did move out of trade and service jobs and learn to code, but very ve…

I have yet to know anyone who’s lost their job to AI. On the contrary, because juniors are being hired less, the ladder on a well-paying job in knowledge work is essentially being pulled up (by the Csuite mind you). So unfortunately, for those like me who spent a decade in the trades, saw that it could destroy your body by your 40s and decided I’d like to not have that happen to me the number of exits into knowledge…

Not to sound bleak, but you're describing what things looked like to me 18 months ago. The C-suite's gonna keep pulling that ladder up until the loss of layers of knowledge come back to bite them in the ass in six years. If it ever does.

I'm not the best person to talk to, because I'm not a salaried programmer for some corporation, and I'm not looking for a job from a startup or something. I'm in a unique position where I wrote a suite of proprietary software that clients pay for that they would have a hard time replicating or migrating away from, even if AI helped them. Lucky me, I happened to get into a specialized industry and start writing code for it 20 years ago, and I kept all the data and code logic in my own silos and never shared anything with anyone. So I am somewhat protected because it would cost 3x more to replace what I wrote than to just pay me for the rest of my life to maintain what I built.

By the way, I started this software in my 20s when my body was already being destroyed by physical jobs. I started it while I was driving a taxi and waiting tables at the same time. I learned by reading books in my cab. I don't think that's an option for people anymore.

My best friend worked for a massive multinational similar to Salesforce and he ran a team of 60 people under him until last year. He was not AI-proof. They laid off everyone on his team except for him and 3 helpers, and told him to use AI to do everything else. After awhile, they laid him off too. After interviewing for a couple months, he found a new job, and his job is to manage two people running AIs. It was a 30% pay cut and he feels lucky to have it.

Under any external hierarchy, where I didn't have this lifetime of private code and clients in my pocket, his job would have been way, way above mine. I would have been one of the 60 people laid off.

Okay, so I'm going to say something about this "knowledge work" thing because I've known a lot of people who took courses and transitioned to it from the trades. Almost all of them did not get decent jobs. One of them was a bartender who just somehow got it. This was around 2018. Her husband works in construction. She just sat down and it clicked, she learned to write javascript in 3 months. I'd sit at her bar and tell her what to improve and she'd write it down and memorize it. In six months she was writing like a native, and she got a job at [huge multinational retail company] working on their website. And somehow she survived round after round of layoffs to keep going and become the only person left on her team. I'm immensely proud of her. And she will still probably lose her job in the next six months.

But my ex-girlfriend tried to learn to code at exactly the same time, and it went nowhere. Just didn't make sense to her.

So that's why I wouldn't recommend it. Honestly, if I didn't have the little pile of code I was sitting on that pays my bills, I would go to school to be a plumber or air conditioning specialist, or to repair helicopters or be a car mechanic. That's basically what I do anyway, I just do it in code instead of parts. At one time, what I did was equivalent to building custom cars and engines, only in code. At this point, fixing a car would be more satisfying. No one's paying to build their hot rod in code anymore, that's all being thrown at AI. And the rest of the jobs suck.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#806
post #35

> bad engineers were always a liability This part of the article hits home for me. With AI, "bad" engineers can now amplify their "bad" engineering x10 across the organization. The most egregious of these cases for me is often long tenured engineers who have lost interest in the craft, creating a dangerous combination of having enough merit to ship but not enough interest to make what they ship _good_. I am still a f…

Not all industries require good software engineering tho.

one good swe out of ten with high authority may be enough in most organisation

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#807
post #37

It baffles me that someone can just send a PR without knowing the gist of how it works and why it’s done this way. If you can’t answer this basic question then why tf do we even need you around?

Most people are currently too polite to ask the last part out loud. I suspect it will start changing soon.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#808

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where was I saying it's not happening? But if I can clarify my point. It's more that I'm trying to say "Company promises A is happening and B is the necessary consequences to achieve it". I do not believe A is happening but B is occurring despite that, in order to achieve hidden agenda C. Though in this case, C is not that hidden since every other article has them blabbing out loud about "wow it's going to be so amaz…

If you think A is not happening for a software engineer's role, then you are mistaken. We are all scrambling to figure out what else we need to do (and so are many other roles).

> If you think A is not happening for a software engineer's role, then you are mistaken.

En masse, I argue not. More productivity for engineers would not be met with mass layoffs if engineering production was why value was being added. On the contrary, other industries have had to hire back talent becsuse companies were too aggressive cutting people and needed that work to be done.

But I'm not an oracle. I can only speak for what I see today and won't predict tomorrow. Especially in these trying times.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#809

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It will become very easy to build most software We keep hearing this, but where is the Photoshop killer written by a gas station attendant? Where is the PayPal alternative written by a retired nurse? Over and over we're told that software is now trivial to write, and Claude is evidently writing some billions of lines of code a day, but where are the results? Where is the vibe coded app toppling the legacy hand-code…

My non technical wife asked ai to brush up the photo for her cv. Ai did that with whatever cli tools were available and what it would write itself. Ai is not a faster horse. It is a phase shift. We won't see a gas station clerk write photoshop because we won't need a photoshop.

I'm not sure how happy is a recruiter to see an ai photo in cv. Although they don't read cv themselves these days

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#810

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because of the current state of AI. But the current state of AI is a very good indicator were it is going. Even if we don't achieve AGI, do you think AI in its current form will not be better in 5 or 10 years and we will have this solved a lot more/better than today? Even with AI, you still need to design the software, test it, try it out, deploy it and scale it. An proper agentic platform still needs time to be buil…

Yes, I don't think this will be a lot better. Newest Claude is barely better, same with the rest of the model. In the same time cost of training new models and running them is increasing so taking this in the account I don't think this'll even last 5y

Tokens get cheaper and smarter every day.

This alone will lead to being able to run a fable class claude model 24/7 and potentially running something like this in parallel multiply times over.

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