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De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

jpmorgan.com

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Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#801
post #530

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something that is “already over” cannot be “un-over”. That’s not how “is already over” works. It means it’s done, finito, not a prophecy but a historical fact. We have to move on. And that means less interference in internal European affairs like Ukraine-Russia and more protection of our interests like consolidation of power over the Atlantic, the Arctic, and the Americas.

You do realize Denmark/Greenland is (well, at least used to be before this circus act) your ally?

“Used to be” is not “is”. The USSR was an ally. As everyone is pointing out here, there’s no going back. Given that, and as much as I preferred the old order, we have only forward to go.

If there were a path back, there’d be a point. But in this discussion, everything has already happened. There’s not much point in saying “if you hadn’t”. Well, Trump did. Having done what he did, nothing to do now but to go full bore.

Now that we are on a war footing, potentially with our erstwhile allies who have no interest in renewing the alliance given present conditions, the only path to preserve US control is aggression.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#803

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should define what "our values" is when making such bold statements.

Freedom of speech, democratically elected representatives, protection of minorities, religious freedom, to name a few. I can already hear people storming out of the woods, ready to write how the EU itself is undemocratic, or how free speech isn't real in western European countries. I disagree with you.

Well, indeed, freedom of speech in the EU isn't freedom of speech as only a certain type of speech is allowed. Conveniently weakly defined "hate speech laws" (even in private conversations!) allow easy political suppression. Or just lawfare through defamation, which is happening in Germany at the moment (4,400 defamation cases by politicians, last year).

Regarding the EU, the only elected representatives don't have the right to choose which laws they will vote for. If it was in a soviet country no one would call it a democracy.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#804

Related is the PM of Canada’s speech at Davos today. I don’t think that I have heard such a blunt assessment of the past and future from a politician, ever. This may be a historically significant speech. https://www.youtube.com/live/dE981Z_TaVo?t=100

He quotes Václav Havel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Power_of_the_Powerless

[deleted]

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#805
post #783

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm an historical materialist. That means I don't believe religion, ethnicity or political philosophy ever drives international conflict. It's always, always, always material interests. Those other things are just an excuse, something to rile up the populace into supporting the government and dying on the front line. So some think Duginism and a Greater Russia is driving Putin's expanionist activity in Ukraine (inclu…

Overall some great points here, but some don't make sense. > The real problem is that Russia wants a warm water port on the Black Sea Russia already had several other ports on the Black Sea, so it's not clear to me why they'd need to invade Ukrainian territory to get one extra. > Germany would always veto Ukraine's membership because they don't want NATO on Russia's borders. They've already voted three other Russia-b…

> Russia already had several other ports on the Black Sea

You're not wrong. I kind of glossed over the details for brevity. Sevastopol has historically been the home of the Russian Black Sea fleet and is a much larger port than other Russian ports on the Black Sea, who also have significant commercial traffic, so they're much more crowded.

Behind all this is the Montreux Convention on Turkey's governance of the Bosphorus. Anyone with a permanent naval base on the Black Sea is allowed to traverse the straits (other than in times of war; it's complicated) so should Sevastopol in future fall into enemy hands, it would allow a foreign military power to station warships in the Black Sea. That foreign power could be Ukraine as a NATO member.

As I stated elsewhere, I don't believe this was a realistic possibility but it makes for a justification. I still say Sevastopol is more significant for it being a deep water port and control of territorial waters than any legitimate security threat.

> They've already voted three other Russia-bordering countries into NATO

There's a difference. I'll try to be brief.

Ukraine is flat. It is basically the conventional invasion corridor from Europe to Moscow and was used that way by both Napoleon and Hitler. I mean they failed spectacularly but that's another story. So there's a security argument that the Ukraine border is, in the very least, more sensitive than other borders.

Technically Poland shares a border with Kaliningrad, which is technically Russian territory but that's not quite the same thing. Also, the 1990s and early 2000s were a different time when post-Soviet Russia was weak before it became an energy giant and reawakened as a regional power.

Norway joined in 1949. Different time. Mountainous border. Not really a strategic threat. Norway was a founding member and this occurred before the USSR had the atomic bomb (by a matter of months).

Finland was really a direct response to the Ukraine invasion. It's a softer border than Norway but doesn't have the same strategic threat.

So you can make an argument that Russia has a legitimate concern of having NATO forces on their border. Imagine a scenario where Canada or Mexico joined a military alliance with China and China wanted to put military bases along the US border. would the US just stand by and take that? Absolutely not. So it's hard to completely dismiss Russia having the exact same strategic concern.

But, like I said, I don't think there was a serious threat of Ukraine joining NATO. Borders go both ways. Pre-invasion I don't think the European powers had any interest in a NATO buildup on the Ukraine-Russia border and if Ukraine was a NATO member, a Russian buildup on their side of their border would then become a serious NATO problem.

Would Germany really want to have Article 5 invoked if Russian forces crossed into the Dombas? I don't think so.

> I think there's a case to be made that Russia similarly couldn't tolerate a prosperous democratic Ukraine sitting right next door and embarrassing them.

I... don't. Ukraine is a poor country. A lot of its economy was built on transit fees for Russian natural gas going to Europe in Russian pipeline, a situation that Russia didn't like and they'd actively been building pipelines around Ukraine to avoid those transit fees (eg Nordstream 1 & 2).

In all this, nobody really knows just how rich Putin is. There are just wild guesses but those guesses realistically go all the way up to hundreds of billions of dollars. Russia is a kleptocracy (in a way that the US is becoming, as an aside). It could be that Putin miscalculated Ukraine's resolve and Europe's response and saw it as an opportunity to enrich himself further. I really don't know.

If anything Ukraine is like Venezuela. It's not so much about profiting from Ukraine's oil and gas deposits (for example) but simply making sure nobody else can. Developing Venezuelan oil fields would actually devalue Western oil companies so they're not going to do it. But if nobody else can? Great.

There's a lot of speculation here. Reasonable people can disagree. What I mostly object to is the self-referential idealist interpretation that underlies US foreign policy messaging. We are the good guys because we're the good guys. Rusia are the bad guys because they're the bad guys. Nobody is inherently anything. There are just people and governments responding to material interests. That's my philosophy.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#806
post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold is not "real money", come on.

That chart is also really weird. With log scale turned off and expanded to all time... https://www.macrotrends.net/1437/sp500-to-gold-ratio-chart Makes it look like the US peaked at Sep 2000 and has been downhill ever since. Doesn't track at all with GDP which has almost doubled since 2000. I.e. it doesn't track with growth, but does track with dollar index somewhat, which makes sense because it's tracking a dollar v…

> Isn't this the real chart to look at for that?

No, the perplexity chart is actually a really bad one to look at. It tracks a derivative of gold from 1975 onwards from which the S&P already accrued over 350% in returns. They also started the gold derivative off at a price of $178 while using the initial price of $17.57 to calculate S&P returns.

> Personally I am about $10M USD poorer for listening to people on the internet. I wish people would not spread falsities about finance that can actually ruin lives.

Ideally no one would blindly follow advice they don't understand or can't accept into their own mental model.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#807

Earlier quoted context omitted.

do you mind qualifying this? it sounds like you mean dollar hegemony, which I might accept, but if you mean foreign policy in general, I can think of many invasions , financial crises, cold wars, lost prosperity for most of those Presidents.

I think we're talking less about the aspect of Bismarck where he won 3 big wars and lost none, and more about the part where he set up a delicate system that was maybe too complex for his successors to maintain, especially under idiosyncratic leaders. We're not talking about financial crises. Bismarck did not stop the Panic of 1873 (in fact, you could wave your hands and argue he indirectly caused it). As far as "who…

Your list and the one above (e.g. with General Marshall, etc) are more illustrative & aligned with developing US Hegemony than the 20th Century Presidents. It seems to me the US presidents have been drawing down hegemony assets since JFK.

It's just that the USA was so dominant after WW2 that it took about a century for the structure to collapse.

A better model than seeing Trump as a wrecking ball, is seeing him as a high stakes gambler, with middling skills -- in the same way that George W Bush made a big bet on the middle east and lost the chips.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#808

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The harsh reality is that a federated state system with a very weak governing body economically and politically is extremely unlikely to be the global trade currency.

Let's what-if a scenario where the Fed is made subservient to the President and the President wants the dials turned to 11, let the next guy deal with the consequences. The dollar isn't indestructible. If not the Euro, what?

I was referring to Europe and america together -- and I think your conjecture is real -- what if we move to a projection of holographic economy over the real one. The answer is, whichever gets the most people to cooperate and support that holographic system will survive. In general collective weak systems tend to not work well there. But hyper centralized systems tend to over index on projection. Which is why we have the separation.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#809
post #110

For those who are not bothering to read this,the article essentially states that de-dollarization is happening in pockets (e.g., reserves down to ~58-60%, Treasuries foreign ownership at 30%), but the dollar's core dominance persists. What would replace it? I guess the options are Yuan, Gold, Oil or maybe BRICS in the future, none of which are safe, stable, and liquid.

Bitcoin

Whenever Bitcoin is brought up, the same arguments against it are made by people who are too arrogant to look up credible counterarguments. I've decided to stop bringing it up to the HN crowd since it seems like a magnet for downvotes.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#810

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The other thing about Bitcoin is that it's deflationary, which leads to people holding the currency rather than spending it, as predicted by Econ 101.

We've witness deflationary forces in computer hw for decades and no one is holding off their purchases. Time is scarce and it ultimately forces consumption because otherwise, what would you be saving for? Don't need Econ 101 to understand this basic reality.

Computer hardware isn't trying to be currency. Bitcoin was supposed to be, but hardly anyone who uses Bitcoin these days is using it to buy things--it's used as a store of value or a speculative asset, not a means of transaction.
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