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The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

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Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#801

Post by steveBK123 »

perrygeo wrote: post #751
simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

Such an important point, I've seen and suspected the end of ZIRP being a much much greater influence on white collar work than we suspect. AI is going to take all the negative press but the flow of capital is ultimately what determines how the business works, which determines what software gets built. Conway's law 101. The white collar bloodbath is more of a haircut to shed waste accumulated during the excesses of ZI…

ZIRP and then the final gasp of COVID bubble over hiring.

At least in my professional circles the number of late 2020-mid 2022 job switchers was immense. Like 10 years of switches condensed into 18-24 months.

Further lot of experiences and anecdotes talking to people who saw their company/org/team double or triple in size when comparing back to 2019.

Despite some waves of mag7 layoffs we are still I think digesting what was essentially an overhiring bubble.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#802

Post by steveBK123 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #795
jameslk wrote: post #512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keynes suggested that by 2030, we’d be working 15 hour workweeks, with the rest of the time used for leisure. Instead, we chose consumption, and helicopter money gave us bullshit jobs so we could keep buying more bullshit. This is fairly evident by the fact when the helicopter money runs out, all the bullshit jobs get cut. AI may give us more efficiency, but it will be filled with more bullshit jobs and consumption,…

> Keynes suggested that by 2030, we’d be working 15 hour workweeks Most people with a modest retirement account could retire in their forties to working 15-hour workweeks somewhere in rural America.

The trade is you need to live in VHCOL city to earn enough and have a high savings rate. Avoid spending it all on VHCOL real estate.

And then after living at the center of everything for 15-20 years be mentally prepared to move to “nowhere”, possibly before your kids head off to college.

Most cannot meet all those conditions and end up on the hedonic treadmill.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#803

Post by 1776smithadam »

autobodie wrote: post #518
jameslk wrote: post #512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keynes suggested that by 2030, we’d be working 15 hour workweeks, with the rest of the time used for leisure. Instead, we chose consumption, and helicopter money gave us bullshit jobs so we could keep buying more bullshit. This is fairly evident by the fact when the helicopter money runs out, all the bullshit jobs get cut. AI may give us more efficiency, but it will be filled with more bullshit jobs and consumption,…

Keynes lived in a time when the working class was organized and exerting its power over its destiny. We live in a time that the working class is unbelievably brainwashed and manipulated.

Keynes didn't anticipate social media

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#804

Post by chrsw »

directevolve wrote: post #792
chrsw wrote: post #762

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I could easily go back to the models I was using 1-2 years ago with little impact on my work. I can't. GPT-4 was useless for me for software development. Claude 4 is not.

Interesting, what type of dev work do you do? Performance does vary widely across languages and domains.

Embedded software for robotics.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#805

Post by hansmayer »

madaxe_again wrote: post #777
hansmayer wrote: post #690

It's so good to see the non-expert types are finally starting to see the whole hype for what it really is -> the long tail of last 20 years of incremental ML development, and not some revolutionary tech. We did not need to have this much hype around web 1.0 which was immediately adopted due to being obviously, well, revolutionary.

Yes, the dot-com bubble never happened.

We're talking technology adoption here, no need to sidetrack (although I would argue, the bubble of technology sector burning 200B to produce 10B in revenue will be so much more painful). Back in the day everyone was running to do something on the web, commercial or not, be it out of enthusiasm, greed, noble aspirations, art or even criminal (warez, anyone?). I won't even mention the iPhone moment here. Compare that to five years into GenAI hype, where is the massive adoption and thousands of applications or at least a single important breakthrough? Where is the AGI some of these "leaders" have been promising to arrive in 2025? Chumming along with Tesla's robotaxis?

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#806

Post by hombre_fatal »

lbotos wrote: post #799
hombre_fatal wrote: post #796

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would you interpret data cut off at 2020 so that you're just looking at a covid phenomenon? The buttons don't seem to do anything on that site, but why not consider 2010-2025? That said, the vibe has definitely shifted. I started working in software in uni ~2009 and every job I've had, I'd applied for Though I don't think AI has anything to do with it, probably more the explosion of cheap software labor on the gl…

It looks like that specific graph only starts in 2020...

Why not just find one that starts in 2022 then. It would look even more dire.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#807

Post by oblio »

simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

> People a decade from now will think Elon slashed Twitter's employee count by 90% because of some AI initiative, and not because he simply thought he could run a lot leaner.

That part is so overblown. Twitter was still trying to hit moonshots. X is basically in "keep the lights on" mode as Musk doesn't need more. Yeah, if Google decides it doesn't want to grow anymore, it can probably cut it's workforce by 90%. And it will be as irrelevant as IBM in maximum 10 years.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#808

Post by bawolff »

zelphirkalt wrote: post #771
bawolff wrote: post #487

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reistically its because layoffs have a high reputational cost. AI provides an excuse that lets companies do lay offs without suffering the reputation hit. In essence AI hype makes layoffs cheaper. Doesnt really matter if AI actually works or not.

I would dispute, that there is no reputation cost, when you replace human work with LLMs.

Sure, i don't think its none, just less.

It also matters a bit where the reputation cost hits. Layoffs can spook investors because it makes it look like the company is doing poorly. If the reputation hit for ai is to non-investors, then it probably matters less.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#809

Post by leptons »

simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

What's happening now is similar to what happened during the 2000's "dot-com bubble burst". Having barely survived that time, I saw this one coming and people told me I was crazy when I told them to hold on to their jobs and quit job-hopping, because the job-hopper is very often the first one to get laid off.

In 2000 I was moved cities and I had a job lined-up at a company that was run by my friends, I had about 15 good friends working at the company including the CEO, and I was guaranteed the job in software development at the company. The interview was supposed to be just a formality. So I moved, and went in to see the CEO, and he told me he could not hire me, the funding was cut and there was a hiring freeze. I was devastated. Now what? Well I had to freelance and live on whatever I could scrape together, which was a few hundred bucks a month, if I was lucky. Fortunately the place I moved into was a big house with my friends who worked at said company, and since my rent was so low at the time, they covered me for a couple of years. I did eventually get some freelance work from the company, but things did not really recover until about 2004 when I finally got a full-time programming job, after 4 very difficult years.

So many tech companies over-hired during covid, there was a gigantic bubble happening with FAANG and every other tech company at the time. The crash in tech jobs was inevitable.

I feel bad for people who got left out in the cold this time, I know what they are going through.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#810

Post by gosub100 »

jameslk wrote: post #512
simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

Keynes suggested that by 2030, we’d be working 15 hour workweeks, with the rest of the time used for leisure. Instead, we chose consumption, and helicopter money gave us bullshit jobs so we could keep buying more bullshit. This is fairly evident by the fact when the helicopter money runs out, all the bullshit jobs get cut. AI may give us more efficiency, but it will be filled with more bullshit jobs and consumption,…

> Instead, we chose consumption

instead, corporations chose to consume us

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