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I wish GPT4 had never happened

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Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#801

Post by hiq »

__pache__ wrote: post #789
vages wrote: post #777

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Nordic countries are actually the easiest place in the world to earn at least 30 million dollars (or become billionaire for that case) exactly because of the welfare system: https://youtu.be/A9UmdY0E8hU When you don’t have to struggle for a living, you’re more free to take risks and start your own business. Workers accept disruptive innovation and being let go, knowing that the state will help them reskill if nec…

Nah I think something else is at play, as to why so many millionaires are in Switzerland. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_... USA demolishing most everyone else, as you'd expect if you own what you create. Almost 10% of 400 million people are millionaires in the USA! Insanely productive all things considered. Also kind of shockingly the USA has the most progressive tax system, I believe --…

> Almost 10% of 400 million people are millionaires in the USA! Insanely productive all things considered.

The number of millionaires is poor proxy metric for productivity, because of inheritance for instance.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#802

Post by brigadier132 »

crop_rotation wrote: post #458
brigadier132 wrote: post #216

GPT4 is scary, it portends a future that many of us thought would never happen a year or two ago. We all think about the potential risks, about the kind of power this kind of mechanical intelligence can grant evil individuals or just the everyday people that will be "left behind". But even so I think we can't afford NOT to have this kind of development if we want to survive as a species. If we want our lives to impro…

The comparisons with Chess are frivolous. Chess players don't depend on fighting stockfish/Alphazero for their livelihood. Chess players had to do nothing when Stockfish/Alphazero got better than them (except incorporating them during practice maybe). People still want to only watch humans playing chess. There is no market for AI v AI match. The Chess players can not be replaced by AI regardless of how well the AI pl…

> So the comparison is meaningless

It's not meaningless when the primary argument against AI is that people derive "purpose" from their work. If AI gets us to a zero scarcity society the entire idea of working for a "livelihood" is "frivolous" as you like to put it.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#803

Post by usefulcat »

smikhanov wrote: post #795
cambaceres wrote: post #780

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can actually be certain that humans work the other way since we ran huge experiments in labs called the Soviet Union and China. In those experiments we found out that people worked way less/not at all when there was no economic incentive to do so.

There’s an economic incentive for someone to increase their productivity at every taxation level that is less than 100%, no?

Technically correct, but totally missing the point. There’s going to be a big incremental incentive difference between, say 10% and 90% taxation.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#804

Post by pbourke »

qaq wrote: post #666
bayarearefugee wrote: post #646

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think people appreciate the mass disruption of a shift like this happening across so many industries all at the same time. This sort of professional shift works when automation comes for a subset of a single sector, but we're looking at an everywhere all at once situation. How many plumbers are we going to need, exactly? I also don't think people appreciate the absolute social turmoil that will occur as a res…

I'd say biggest displacement would be in IT, Insurance/Financial Services, Creative, legal, Thats not even 10% of the work force and it would prob. take a decade for it to fully play out.

Also customer support, and various flavors of clerical and administrative work.

Under the BLS classification scheme, these jobs are sprinkled around under various industrial categories such as medical, logistics, business services, etc. they add up to a large number of jobs in the aggregate (probably another 10%)

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#805

Post by ilaksh »

surgical_fire wrote: post #770
ilaksh wrote: post #759

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But if we find any web page or document that has your knowledge of what makes ARM code fast and feed that into GPT4 (up to say 80kb of assembly with short comments) along with the task then we don't need you to do that anymore. AI in fact can use any tool, including AI tools, to deliver value in almost any domain. So the problem with the comments here in this thread is that the obvious conclusion is that we need some…

Do it. I've been challenging everyone that LARPs about the capabilities of GPT to start a business now, and use it in place of developers. Hell, for a $20 account you get the perfect developer, that is extremely productive, never gets tired, never gets sick, and has no PTO. What is stopping you?

I am building it. Have a version deployed for static pages and working on backend/VMs. See my profile.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#806

Post by pg938hkd »

cambaceres wrote: post #780
smikhanov wrote: post #771

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody can be fully certain of this, but I suspect all the way up to 100%

We can actually be certain that humans work the other way since we ran huge experiments in labs called the Soviet Union and China. In those experiments we found out that people worked way less/not at all when there was no economic incentive to do so.

That’s not true. Many companies people work at provide them little to no incentive to work harder or better, yet still a lot of people try to do so. Lots of places have almost no possibility of promotion just the ability to go elsewhere. Some professions like teaching, nursing pharmacy treat all workers as interchangeable with no performance incentives.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#807

Post by dennis_jeeves1 »

smikhanov wrote: post #771
cambaceres wrote: post #749

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know what country you live in, but I can tell you how it is in Sweden. As a freelancer I pay appropriately 70% of what I charge in taxes. How high do you think taxes can get before people stop putting energy into raising their productivity?

Nobody can be fully certain of this, but I suspect all the way up to 100%

I wonder why people endlessly argue how much they should tax the rich and the poor, there is only one answer: 100% of everything, i.e wealth, income, gifts etc. It's a nice round number and everybody is taxed fairly.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#808

Post by pg938hkd »

__pache__ wrote: post #789
vages wrote: post #777

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Nordic countries are actually the easiest place in the world to earn at least 30 million dollars (or become billionaire for that case) exactly because of the welfare system: https://youtu.be/A9UmdY0E8hU When you don’t have to struggle for a living, you’re more free to take risks and start your own business. Workers accept disruptive innovation and being let go, knowing that the state will help them reskill if nec…

Nah I think something else is at play, as to why so many millionaires are in Switzerland. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_... USA demolishing most everyone else, as you'd expect if you own what you create. Almost 10% of 400 million people are millionaires in the USA! Insanely productive all things considered. Also kind of shockingly the USA has the most progressive tax system, I believe --…

I assume that’s a product of house price inflation. Or because you count mandatory retirement savings. If you did the same calculation in France for NPV of pension you would probably get a similar or better result

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#809

Post by simonh »

zamnos wrote: post #772
simonh wrote: post #756

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that anyone today thinks that any other economic system we’ve ever tried is any better than the one we have is a damning indictment of our education system.

The fact that USA's brand of late-stage capitalism is even considered capitalism is an even more damning indictment of our education system. Somewhere between Feudalism and Karl Marx, Adam Smith is spinning in his grave. How much we don't have capitalism and are living, globally, under an oligopoly, replete with robber barons in tech clothes; one can only laugh at. The amount of misery under "capitalism" says there's…

I’m open to suggestions, at the end of the day it’s what works that matters, it’s just that every other system ever tried is minimum an order of magnitude worse. I’m not particularly a fan of the ‘red in tooth and claw’ brand of capitalism in the US. It’s a bit raw for me, but undeniably very dynamic.

Meanwhile in my lifetime capitalism has raised hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and into solidly middle class lifestyles globally.

My wife is Chinese so I’ve seen first hand how economic liberalisation has transformed that country. The Chinese brand of capitalism is severely flawed, largely due to an almost nonexistent rule of law, but compared to what they had before its night and day. It’s a shame the CCP seems to be thoroughly mismanaging it at the moment.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#810

Post by crop_rotation »

brigadier132 wrote: post #802
crop_rotation wrote: post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The comparisons with Chess are frivolous. Chess players don't depend on fighting stockfish/Alphazero for their livelihood. Chess players had to do nothing when Stockfish/Alphazero got better than them (except incorporating them during practice maybe). People still want to only watch humans playing chess. There is no market for AI v AI match. The Chess players can not be replaced by AI regardless of how well the AI pl…

> So the comparison is meaningless It's not meaningless when the primary argument against AI is that people derive "purpose" from their work. If AI gets us to a zero scarcity society the entire idea of working for a "livelihood" is "frivolous" as you like to put it.

The comparison to chess is still meaningless, even if that was the only argument that "people derive "purpose" from their work". The work of Chess players never was competing against an AI. From the point of view of Chess players not much changed. No tournament allows Stockfish/AlphaZero to compete. The AI is not allowed to do their work in any capacity.

And this is all not even mentioning that the number of chess professionals who play chess it so small compared to things that can impact humanity, that it is irrelevant whatever happens in the chess world. So saying that chess was fine even though AI can beat players, is a statement which is true yet has no relation with tools which might impact all of humanity and will have real impact.

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