It's all a storm in a tea cup. People leave the city -> rents go down -> new creative people are attracted by the cheap rents -> they create a new vibrancy -> people want to move back. Rinse and repeat.
Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall
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Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall
#802It's all a storm in a tea cup. People leave the city -> rents go down -> new creative people are attracted by the cheap rents -> they create a new vibrancy -> people want to move back. Rinse and repeat.
But it can be a multi-decade cycle.
Also I've seen a few creative people that are admitting defeat on (say) Detroit.
Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall
#803Less dramatically, I'm planning to move to a more rural part of England, where I will be able to rent a 2 bed house with garden for almost half of what I'm paying now for a 1 bed flat. But I'm fully aware this will be a temporary move, lest I give up most of my career prospects. Job opportunities, networking, contacts... all of them are way lower in the countryside compared to the big city. Also I do believe that rem…
Similar situation - still sharing in London and thinking how for the same amount I can have a whole flat to myself somewhere else in the UK. It's kind of difficult to plan things if I expect to move back to London in 6 months or so.
Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall
#804It's all a storm in a tea cup. People leave the city -> rents go down -> new creative people are attracted by the cheap rents -> they create a new vibrancy -> people want to move back. Rinse and repeat.
But it can be a multi-decade cycle. Also I've seen a few creative people that are admitting defeat on (say) Detroit.
I think this cycle will turn around much quicker. There is a lot of pent up energy by the lack of social interaction we're all experiencing and that will explode once we take our foot off the brakes. I'd say 3-7 years until cities like SF & NYC are hot again. They've got advantages and a brand Detroit doesn't.
Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall
#805I moved out of SF in March. Not because of the virus, I just had a long-planned move (to London) with interesting timing. Unlike many of my tech peers, I love San Francisco and the Bay Area. It's a beautiful city and surrounded in all directions by even more beautiful places. The food, music, and art scenes are all amazing. Oh and it happens to have near-unlimited job options for my career of choice. The only reason…
> all I could think in my first month in central London was "wow it's so cheap here".
I think you're possibly the first and last person to have that thought ;)
Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall
#806Earlier quoted context omitted.
And for reference, a Hayes Valley 1bd would still be right above $3k. Or right below with concessions. Luxury studios are going to $2400 already though. Expecting further drops. Yes, there are many people in Central Valley who can now afford to live out their dream of being in "the city". A change of scenery is a change of scenery. I've met suddenly unencumbered East Coasters that roadtripped across during Phase 1 Sh…
Luxury studios were about that much 10 years ago. I don’t expect drops to be much further. The exodus is already decelerating according to Zestimates I’ve been following closely. I expect prices to drop further for a little bit longer then start to creep back up. Anyone who wants to live in the best weather in the continental USA should lock in their price now.
Best weather in continental USA? You mean in Orange County? I lived in Irvine for 6 years and it was essentially an average of 72 all year and mostly sunny days and barely any rain at all. Versus SF which gets way more cloudy and rainy days and isn't as warm.
I've left now but I miss the SoCal weather badly.
Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall
#807Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The misconception is that people are leaving because the housing is too expensive and its not worth it anymore. Almost everybody I know that moved out had no problem affording housing (high earners / home owners / rent controlled). People are leaving because quality of life has fallen dramatically and the only thing keeping people in SF was their offices. Whether something is too expensive is not just a function of…
Only in the short to medium term... the characteristics which make SF an attractive place to live (just like NYC) are resilient and sticky. If you consider a post-covid world 5 years from now, do you think that SF with it's museums, bars, restaurants, and proximity to nature will be an unattractive place to live? Do you think that remote-first/remote-only companies where the majority of employees are outside of the b…
Interestingly museums are selling of property as they are going broke
Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall
#808Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Nightlife is horrible, bars pretty much close at 1am, hardly any live music, gender imbalance, and not much density so it often just feels "dead" in a lot of places As a southern Californian, I can attest to this. It's pathetic that our bars have last call at 2am (effectively many close at 1:30a). There's been push after push to get last-call to 4am like it is in NY but they never go anywhere in the state legislatu…
I think it's silly that they even close. What's the point? Can someone enlighten me on why bars and stuff close at 1am? Thanks!
Drunk people tend to get sick, fight and break things which has a huge public cost.
Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall
#809Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's expensive being well off. If you make $250k a year, you take home $159k in SF. A big chunk of that goes to cost of living such that the $20k means one of your two kids can't go to the college they want because it's $50k per year, and you don't qualify for financial aid.
Unless I’m mistaken, there are colleges that are less than 50k/year.
And others that aren't, that's the point. That kid can't go to his college of choice because it's expensive, not that he can't go to any college at all.
Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall
#810It’s odd they don’t mention the sky high taxes in California as a driving force for the exodus and the fact the Gavin Newsom wants to raise them even more to cover Covid shortages. There’s only so much you can squeeze out of people before they’ll pack up an go.
When going remote you don't get to avoid the California state taxes for the year, will never avoid it for current granted-but-unvested RSUs, and won't avoid them in the future unless you get your employer to actually change your employment to the new state (not exactly sure what the process is here, but I know my 'desk' is in CA so I have to pay taxes there). So this doesn't apply to the many people in the technology…
This is about to get interesting. Similar story to NYC in that they go after people that move to NJ or CN, work from home and choose to pay taxes to the state they live and work in. NY claims they are choosing convenience and because their office is in NYC they need to pay taxes there. So states like NJ miss out on a lot of revenue.
There are local politicians in NJ now talking about this. With so many commuters possibly not going back to an office there’s potentially a few billion in tax revenues at stake.
Most states have reciprocal deals with neighboring states so that you pay taxes where you live even if you work in the adjacent state. NY does not and for obvious reasons. California either and I’ve heard California will claim your owe taxes even if you move far away but the company only has an office in CA.
As reports of these states chasing down money that is arguably not theirs gets around it will be interesting to see if congress acts. Especially if CA’s wealth tax happens which they claim will tax any wealth over a threshold even after you’ve been out of state for years.