All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware • Hacker News Board

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#801

Post by johansch » Thu, Oct 20, 2016, 4:23 PM UTC

fnbr wrote: post #638

hipshaker wrote: post #570

Isn't this hackernews?? So many "but what if this and that and this..." & "and yeah let's see if it can handle X & Y" This is the iPhone 1 of self-driving cars! That's akin to saying Apple should have waited to release their phone until iPhone 7 "because of this & that & this..." Don't we have to start somewhere ?? Aren't there supposed to be a big user base here who understands that it's an evolutionary process - we…

> Isn't this hackernews?? This level of negativity is typical for HN. Look at what happened when dhouston announced Dropbox- the second comment was about how any Linux user can trivially replace it for themselves: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8863

Many/most of those comments were constructive criticisms of the marketing tagline ("Throw away your USB drive").

And on point, I would say.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#802

Post by remolueoend » Thu, Oct 20, 2016, 4:23 PM UTC

noveltyaccount wrote: post #633

rsync wrote: post #551

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"It is a self driving car, it is so clearly the future, I wish it existed now, it is going to be awesome (in my opinion)." Even now, several years into the current news/development arc of self-driving cars, I still can't believe this is going to be the future. We're really never going to european (or japanese) style train networks ? We're really going to keep binging on roads ? We, as a nation of fat slobs [1] are re…

I think the future is self-driving public transit. I imagine minivans that perform dynamic route optimization. Instead of a bus that stops every block on a pre-determined route, use an app to input your pickup location and destination and the self-driving van picks you and a few people up from a small radius, and drops people off in a small radius. This will be faster and cheaper than both public transit and even dri…

Sion (Switzerland) is currently testing a self-driven shuttle-bus in and around the city [1].

[1] https://www.postauto.ch/en/news/start-public-testing-autonom...

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#803

Post by greensoap » Thu, Oct 20, 2016, 4:24 PM UTC

LeifCarrotson wrote: post #636

spIrr wrote: post #533

From 00:50 to 01:10, why is the car driving in the left lane, when the right lane is clearly not turning? It's strange to see this behaviour as someone living in Germany, where you are supposed to, by default, drive in the right lane if you are not overtaking another car or there is a traffic jam... EDIT: also, did it turn into the wrong lane at 2:25-2:30? is this a security risk?

At 0:47, there is a car in the right lane, so it makes the right turn and immediately merges into the left lane. Yes, you're supposed to drive in the right lane when not passing - some localities are more strict about this than others. For example, here in Michigan, there's a fine for driving in the left lane and not passing anyone for...one mile? Two miles? I forget, it's never really used. And you're supposed to "F…

I will reply because I actually know that road. That is Sand Hill Road going toward the I280 onramps. The car stops at the top of the hill where the Rosewood Hotel is. On the otherside of the hill, the right line is only for traffic taking the I280 northbound onramp.

Also, the left lane is only for passing rule doesn't apply like that in California. Instead the rule is that you cannot be going slower than the traffic behind you or the traffic to your right. If you are, you have to move over. But if you are going faster than the traffic around you (or nobody else is around you) you can stay in the left lane as long as you like.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#804

Post by mohaine » Thu, Oct 20, 2016, 4:24 PM UTC

vkou wrote: post #775

drcross wrote: post #734

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>what Musk spins, and reality. The reality is that they are the first serious electric car company. A tiny enterprise that took on the old Detroit giants and is winning. When you see people putting down hard earned cash for something three years into the future, they are not being tricked, they are investing in disruption. He's such a terrible orator you couldn't describe him as a charlatan. It's his actions and peop…

I'm not at all implying that the money will go poof. What I do mean is that inability to meet demand is actually an incredibly serious problem for a car manufacturer - one that's more closely associated with failing Soviet enterprises, regardless of spin to the contrary. Having three years of cars in your backlog isn't winning. Waiting three years for your car to arrive isn't revolutionary. Meanwhile, Detroit produce…

How can there an "inability to meet demand" on a product that hasn't been released yet? Or right, that isn't possible.

Once it is released then we can talk about the rate of mfg vs backlog but it is pure silliness to argue against a product because lots of people want it.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#805

Post by Nadya » Thu, Oct 20, 2016, 4:25 PM UTC

koreyb wrote: post #796

obastani wrote: post #783

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not at all the same -- self-driving cars can risk the lives not only of the passengers, but of innocent bystanders. Several commenters have pointed out problems such as rain, snow, darkness, etc., but there are more fundamental problems. For example, self-driving cars based on machine learning may be susceptible to adversarial attacks that cause the car to behave unpredictably [1,2]. How will self-driving cars k…

Autopilot v1 has already proven itself to be 2.5x safer (and climbing) than the average non-autopilot driver. 1 death in 230 million miles (so far) with Autopilot v1 vs 1 death per 90 million miles for non-autopilot.

I'm fully supportive of self-driving vehicles, but arguments like this don't do the "pro-selfdriving" any favors.

"Autopilot v1" miles are also largely on freeways and conditions favorable to the driving-assist features. The 1 in 90 million is comparing to all cars and not just other cars with driving-assist. I don't think many people would argue that driving-assist is more dangerous than without. The 1 in 90 million is across far more driving conditions, many of which are more dangerous than what the Tesla Autopilot is driving in.

The comparison between the two isn't really a fair comparison and, in my opinion, is dishonest.

E:

In addition, picking any random model car may yield similar statistics. "Car accidents involving a Honda Civic per mile driven" is probably a lot higher than "Car accidents involving a Pontiac Firebird per mile driven". Because there are more Civics on the road... Firebirds may be in fewer accidents, but my money is on the Civic being a safer car.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#806

Post by ozgung » Thu, Oct 20, 2016, 4:26 PM UTC

lost_name wrote: post #655

fnbr wrote: post #638

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Isn't this hackernews?? This level of negativity is typical for HN. Look at what happened when dhouston announced Dropbox- the second comment was about how any Linux user can trivially replace it for themselves: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8863

Just for fun, have a look at the comments about the iPod announcement: http://forums.macrumors.com/threads/apples-new-thing-ipod.50... There's always people with something to say.

A comment from the iPod thread: "AAPL is going down fast! - Mmmm. APPL is already down $1.00... Looks like the markets aren't looking too favorably on Apple's new forays into the digital device market." [1]

Today on Yahoo Finance: 'Tesla Falls After Announcement - Tesla Motors (TSLA) fell nearly 2% and remained in the lower parts of a six-month-old consolidation. Late Wednesday, Tesla said all of its new vehicles will be equipped with hardware that enables fully autonomous driving "at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver." [2]

[1] http://forums.macrumors.com/threads/apples-new-thing-ipod.50...

[2] http://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/sto...

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#807

Post by skue » Thu, Oct 20, 2016, 4:27 PM UTC

spIrr wrote: post #533

From 00:50 to 01:10, why is the car driving in the left lane, when the right lane is clearly not turning? It's strange to see this behaviour as someone living in Germany, where you are supposed to, by default, drive in the right lane if you are not overtaking another car or there is a traffic jam... EDIT: also, did it turn into the wrong lane at 2:25-2:30? is this a security risk?

> It's strange to see this behaviour as someone living in Germany, where you are supposed to, by default, drive in the right lane if you are not overtaking another car or there is a traffic jam...

That used the be the norm in the US as well, but it has broken down over the past few decades. Some studies and motorist groups blame the nationwide 55 mph speed limit imposed in the 70s due to oil shortages. Slow drivers suddenly felt safe driving in left lanes and a whole generation has learned to drive like this. [1]

There are laws in many states against impeding traffic in the left lane [2], but they aren't that enforced. You also see signs occasionally on the highway, but my issue with these signs is that they say "Slower traffic keep right" (instead of eg, "Stay right except when passing"). I strongly suspect that very view people view themselves as "slow drivers" -- rather everyone tends to believe they drive the appropriate speed and everyone else is driving too slow or too fast.

[1] http://nytimes.com/2016/07/08/us/more-states-are-cracking-do...

[2] http://www.mit.edu/~jfc/right.html

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#808

Post by moogly » Thu, Oct 20, 2016, 4:27 PM UTC

ape4 wrote: post #622

NegatioN wrote: post #555

So, both Nvidia and Tesla are working on self-driving cars based on the sensory data mainly from cameras mounted on the car, which are then run through X number of RNNs to generate models to operate on? While Google pursues their LIDAR-approach? What other players are operating in this space? And what's their approach?

The LIDAR idea seems better to me. The car can build an accurate 3D model. I'm sure the artificial vision of the Tesla is good but it will probably get fooled too.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I was under the impression that LIDAR-only doesn't work at all during heavy rain or snow. You'll probably always need some sensor fusion from a mix of optical/supersonic/radar/lidar.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#809

Post by sbierwagen » Thu, Oct 20, 2016, 4:29 PM UTC

aerovistae wrote: post #617

hipshaker wrote: post #570

Isn't this hackernews?? So many "but what if this and that and this..." & "and yeah let's see if it can handle X & Y" This is the iPhone 1 of self-driving cars! That's akin to saying Apple should have waited to release their phone until iPhone 7 "because of this & that & this..." Don't we have to start somewhere ?? Aren't there supposed to be a big user base here who understands that it's an evolutionary process - we…

I laughed out loud when I googled "tsla" after watching the video and the top headline in the news section of the google results was "Analyst doubts the new move by Tesla Motors." Clicking on the article for humor's value, I continued to read: > However, Edmunds.com, Inc. analyst Jessica Caldwell questions the value of purchasing a self-driving car before regulations catch up. Caldwell said that, meanwhile, competito…

If we're continuing the iPhone metaphor from the GP, note that Apple is almost always late to a market segment. When the iPhone was released, Windows CE had owned the smartphone segment for years. The iPod was hardly the first hard drive mp3 player. Apple Watch wasn't the first smart watch. Etc etc etc. Apple makes good products, not innovative ones. It is not at all unthinkable that someone else will release a better self driving car after Tesla, and win marketshare.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#810

Post by flexie » Thu, Oct 20, 2016, 4:30 PM UTC

irq11 wrote: post #744

flexie wrote: post #726

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google's cars are not iPhone 1. They still just have a few dozen or a few hundred, who knows, and they have only been driving 2 million miles until now. They are not even for sale and will not be any time soon. Oor ever, if they don't market their own electric cars very soon or hook up with a car manufacturer. Tesla can collect data from 5 billion miles of driving already one year after the Giga Factory is full opera…

Not sure why you keep talking about the gigafactory as if that's relevant to self-driving cars. Your only point can be summarized in one sentence: they've released a senor suite into the field, and through some combination of Big Data and magical AI, they will win. This, as much as anything else, is a religious belief. Ultimately, this game is about the sensors. If your sensor suite is inadequate to detect every conc…

Production capacity is the most important factor for data collection.

The Teslas sold in October 2018 don't need to have the same sensors as the ones sold in january 2018. As you can see, the car is designed modularly. No other mass marketed car on the planet has any sensors integrated yet.

It's all about big numbers. Google has spent 5 years or more driving a few cars around California. It's never going to match billions of miles driven around the globe.

EDIT: Imagine the engineers working at Google's autonomous cars today. I bet many of them are preparing their resumes for Tesla. They can launch an algorithm or a new sensor type now, wait a few months and then get the feedback on how it worked. With Tesla, they will get that feedback in days. In which lab would you want to work if you want to take part in shaping the future? In the Google lab where you have a Lexus or two assigned to you that drive up to 25 miles per hour in California or in the Tesla lab where you have 2,000 Teslas assigned driving in 50 different countries?