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A Profitable and Legal Way to Game the Stock Market

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Re: A Profitable and Legal Way to Game the Stock Market

#81
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point of the article is that owning an index fund is NOT buy-and-hold -- the indexs sell to rebalance, and do so in poorly timed ways (that is, in hige fixed batches, contrary to standard advise to "drip"), exposing investors to trading waste that the indexes are designed to avoid -- undermining the purpose of the index fund. 0.2% waste is huge compared to the overhead fee of an index fund. VTSMX fee is 0.17%. >…

I did mean higher than, but that is because I incorrectly included the overhead of front running in the expense ratio when I think it would actually manifest as a failure to track the index. Some total market funds end up being a hair pricier (VTSAX and VFIAX are both .05% right now). Still, if you look at VFIAX it tracks the index perfectly despite front running so it is still nothing to worry about. The amount of m…

>>I think it would actually manifest as a failure to track the index

No, because the stock was added to the index on the same day. So the fund is tracking the index, and the index is doing what it said it would do. It's just that they're both buying in an inefficient way that costs more than it might, and others capitalize on that inefficiency.

Re: A Profitable and Legal Way to Game the Stock Market

#82
The issue of coerced hackers is an actual thing. They have been coerced by Gov, Mafia but also large corporations. But this article...

> One day, Okul said he wanted to obtain a pwnie for a client

oh kay?

> Building pwnies isn’t itself a crime; anyone can buy a version on the Internet.

hmm... that is false.

Re: A Profitable and Legal Way to Game the Stock Market

#83
post #46

Just reading the title, I thought this would be another article about the Congressional loophole - where members of Congress can trade on insider information with impunity. https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2015/05/07/congress-argue...

When does insider information become public? When does trading on it become manipulating the market?

I asked my compliance officer where I work that question, the answer was the usual "It depends".

Re: A Profitable and Legal Way to Game the Stock Market

#84
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a nice, clear example of the anti-inductivity of the market: http://lesswrong.com/lw/yv/markets_are_antiinductive/ The very act of noticing that something is a good strategy, and beginning to trade on it, will over time drain away the utility of the strategy, until it is useless or worse than useless. Tracking indexes is "big", and has some brute simplicity about it, but eventually the market will eliminate that…

Show me an actively managed portfolio that consistently beats an index fund and I'll believe it. Until then, you guys can pretend to have all the inside information you want, but numbers don't lie.

YAFFX

Anecdotally, I spend about 3 hours a week on financial research. I've averaged 13% returns since investing in high school during the 90s.

Nothing wrong with index funds, but the boglehead position isn't axiomatic.

Re: A Profitable and Legal Way to Game the Stock Market

#85
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a nice, clear example of the anti-inductivity of the market: http://lesswrong.com/lw/yv/markets_are_antiinductive/ The very act of noticing that something is a good strategy, and beginning to trade on it, will over time drain away the utility of the strategy, until it is useless or worse than useless. Tracking indexes is "big", and has some brute simplicity about it, but eventually the market will eliminate that…

> But that won't stop your metaphorical Dad from swearing up and down you need to buy index funds.... The argument isn't that passive index investing is some kind of perfectly optimal investing strategy, it's that it's the most practical strategy for 98% of normal small, individual investors. If you don't have millions of dollars to invest, and you have a real job that prevents you from spending all your time researc…

Fees are the other key factor. Most investors are really using 401k accounts with captive choices, not a real broker with access to funds and free ETFs.

You're almost always better off with an index than the "HR Director Got a Kickback Growth Fund"

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