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Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

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Re: Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

#81
post #20

I never understood Twitter management. Just accepting small and medium sized companies to consume their firehose and charge for that will be enough to significantly increase their earnings. This was the Google AdWords breakthrough.

You can do that through gnip.com, which they own. It isn't close to their advertising revenue.

Re: Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

#82

Meh, I don't get it. They're making money, they grew to 18% more active users (that sounds like a lot), what seems to be the problem?

The way stock prices work is that the price of a company's stock (or more relevantly, the price*num_shares) incorporates their current earnings as well as their potential future profits (which is driven by the company's forecasted growth). Updates on how the company is actually performing (e.g. earnings releases) are a chance to get concrete information that allows everyone to update their expectations of future grow…

Ok but from my understanding - you get to buy and sell stocks. So when twitter says that instead of earning say 300 million, they a bit less like 280, why is this a big problem?

Did they expect the stock to be valued higher and because it has not lived up to that, they're selling it and buying a different stock that will do that?

Re: Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

#83
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coming soon: more ads. From the article: "Under a new agreement, marketers using Google’s DoubleClick advertising service can buy Twitter’s Promoted Tweets." Twitter is in danger of pulling a Myspace. At Myspace, revenue went down, ad density was raised to compensate, usage went down, ad density was increased to compensate, then usage crashed. For a publicly held ad-based growth company, a down quarter is a disaster.…

Compensation. I know an engineer with 3 year experience who was offered 150K salary + 600K of stock grant over 4 years. Management get paid a lot more, obviously.

Is this a recent offer or an old offer with current valuation of their stock? The latter seems reasonably if the stock offer had a five-figure valuation but a recent offer of 600k in stock seems ludicrous. Are public tech companies really offering that much in compensation these days?

Re: Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

#84

I think the writing is on the wall for Twitter. The younger generations are increasingly flocking to snapchat, yik yak, and similar apps. I never hear of anyone using it anymore(college student here). I would have stopped facebook a while back as well if I didn't use OAuth for damn near everything

Twitter, Facebook, Google+, Snapchat, Instagram, Whatsapp, etc… they are all just iterations of the same basic things: messaging, file (photo) sharing, identify, news. The writing is on the wall from inception. The value is in the community, but community is amorphous and not really ownable or defendable.

The only real difference I've noticed in the last, lets say 15 years, is that people have grown up with things now and so they seem "easier" and more "accessible." To some extent that's true, but it's mostly the people that have changed not the products or services themselves.

I don't really believe that any "internet company" is sustainable. The value they add exists at a point in time and decays. Get in and get out. The basic functions are too easy to copy and there's no guarantee you keep your community unless you do so by force.

At some point you either become a media company that caters to specific demographics (the lookalike audience you acquired), or you disappear.

Re: Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The way stock prices work is that the price of a company's stock (or more relevantly, the price*num_shares) incorporates their current earnings as well as their potential future profits (which is driven by the company's forecasted growth). Updates on how the company is actually performing (e.g. earnings releases) are a chance to get concrete information that allows everyone to update their expectations of future grow…

Ok but from my understanding - you get to buy and sell stocks. So when twitter says that instead of earning say 300 million, they a bit less like 280, why is this a big problem? Did they expect the stock to be valued higher and because it has not lived up to that, they're selling it and buying a different stock that will do that?

It's both what they just did and what they are trending towards in the future.

twitter is currently valued at say $35 billion then long term to justify that valuation per what the stock market demands long term they need to consistently generate around 2 billion a year in profit. If they do really well and have say a 25% margin they'd need $8 billion a year in revenue to operate at that level. Current revenue projections are closer to 2 billion and are being scaled back by executives and they're not consistently profitable at all.

There's a big gap between where they need to be to support the current stock price and where they are (and seem to be heading in the near and mid term). That's why the stock is under a lot of negative pressure.

Re: Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

#86

Ya'll need to chill out and look at a price chart of TWTR over time. This is very common run-of-the-mill volatility. Source: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TWTR&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p870792...

Another way to look at it is that Twitter's first trade on the NYSE in November 2013 was at $45.10, and today, almost a year and a half later, it closed at around $42. That is not a whole lot of return for what is supposed to be a growth stock. It's also not a particularly great story to tell prospective employees if you're trying to attract them with stock-based compensation.

Re: Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

#87
this is my theory that the current economic model we have of dot com stocks is very much flawed, grossly overvaluing future potential revenues vs. current revenues. This argument never makes sense to me, unless you are investing in infrastructures like oil rigs or telecom grids that have a very sure and quantifiable return on investment, this is a mystery with a lot of dot com companies, especially for those that fail to demonstrate ability to earn.

I think a market correction is long overdue, I believe that after this year, capitals will be tougher to come across, companies that didn't really innovate but instead captured markets by burning cash won't be able to sustain this level come rainy season when capital market dries up for these firms.

Re: Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing

#90
post #3

> “It calls into question why they didn’t see this coming,” said Victor Anthony, an analyst at Axiom Capital Management, who has a buy rating on Twitter’s stock. “I don’t think anyone ever questioned their ability to generate revenues.” Hmm, I thought everybody did? I guess wall street really does have a clear view of this whole tech scene.

I love how "I don't think anyone ever questioned" can mean two different things: either everyone assumed they could make money, or nobody ever even bothered to ask the question if could they make money, let alone knows the answer.
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