The article refers to a 2013 paper by David Autor of MIT... http://economics.mit.edu/files/9014
The Nissan anecdote starts on page 3.
The future of jobs: The onrushing wave
81–90 of 141 posts
Re: The future of jobs: The onrushing wave
#82The interesting thing is that a wave of redundancy due to automation or unprecedented efficiency contains problems that those made redundant might be able to work on. Eg. Joe can't afford X due to lack of employment, and Bob can't afford Y for the same reason. Assuming Bob can supply X and Joe can supply Y (or some more complicated network of bartering), it seems like should be possible for an economy to arise.
While commerce and trade are important, the basis of our existence is physical. We are physical beings with physical needs. Physical resources (energy, land, lumber, food, water, etc.) all have owners in the real economy. Joe and Bob are unemployed, thus have no resources, thus have nothing to trade. The best they can do in your scenario is called dumpster diving, assuming recycling tech is not making garbage valuabl…
Specifically, Bob and Joe need oil (energy) to produce anything and it's expensive. If they create less value than oil they spent, they're a net loss for society.
Re: The future of jobs: The onrushing wave
#83I am always stunned with statements like this: "For those not in the elite, argues David Graeber, an anthropologist at the London School of Economics, much of modern labour consists of stultifying “bullshit jobs”—low- and mid-level screen-sitting that serves simply to occupy workers for whom the economy no longer has much use. Keeping them employed, Mr Graeber argues, is not an economic choice; it is something the ru…
Creating "bullshit jobs" doesn't need a coördinated cabal. The wrong incentives can manufacture such roles in a distributed fashion. Consider our tax system. Government bureaucracies refine the tax code. The same bureaucracies that fight each year for their budget allocations from Congress. Districts reward Congressmen who bring jobs home. Increased staffing, cost, taxation and knock-on bureaucracy ensues across gove…
One example i recall Graeber using for such jobs are call center cold call marketing. Rooms filled with people who sit there all day calling number after number with the hope that whoever answers have any interest in their product.
Re: The future of jobs: The onrushing wave
#84Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah, the same chart lists a 17% chance that "firefighters" will be automated... I'm equally curious what then definition of "firefighter" is. If they are talking about woodland (or "forest") firefighting, then _maybe_ (I could see drones accomplish at least some of the tasks involved). But for structural firefighting? No way... Not in 20 years.
I was under the impression that more modern building construction and heating technologies have already made a large percentage of professional firefighters redundant - hence why they spend as much time responding to car accidents and working as EMTs as actually fighting fires.
The number of fires has indeed fallen dramatically. However, until the day when there is zero risk of there being a house fire (and we're a _long_ way from that), you still need to maintain a staffing level that can get the job done.
Re: The future of jobs: The onrushing wave
#85Earlier quoted context omitted.
It sounds like the technology forecasts in the 50ies and 60ies but with a pessimistic instead of an optimistic undertone.
In all fairness, most desk jobs that existed in the 50's and 60's are now heavily consolidated (it now takes one journalist and Google what it used to take 10 to do). And most factory work is either also heavily consolidated or moved overseas. Would the words "service economy" even make sense back then?
And now there are headlines about automating low tier jobs in the legal and medical professions. The old refrain about getting a degree being a ticket to a steady income is long gone.
Never mind that the latest in assembly line robotics are as flexible as humans in their movement, and can be programmed by demonstrating the basic movements a few times. You can pretty much tell Joe to walk away from his station, and roll this robot into the same place.
Re: The future of jobs: The onrushing wave
#86They estimate in their chart that Athletic trainers have a 0.007 chance of being automated, the third lowest chance after therapists and dentists. it's hard to know exactly what they class as "Athletic trainers". For Olympic athletes, there will always be staff. For the rest of us, what would that "unlikely" automation of the coach look like? Perhaps it would start with a movement sensor on the wrist? A smartphone ap…
I recall seeing articles on what may be described as high tech long johns. They were covered in sensors that would give you a readout about every major muscle on your body. Hook that up to a stripped down Watson that can tell you exactly when and how you are doing wrong.
Re: The future of jobs: The onrushing wave
#87Earlier quoted context omitted.
Don't assume that the robotic solution will look anything like the human solution. A fitbit does not look like a "robotic personal trainer" and a roomba does not look like a person with a broom. I would speculate that the obvious next wins for fire-fighting are drones to visualise the scene from multiple angles, remote control or self-aiming hoses and extinguishers. And various hardened eyes and arms to reach into th…
I'm actually most of the way done with a prototype of a quadcopter that can be deployed on a scene that just orbits and streams video to a monitor in the chiefs vehicle. It's mostly off the shelf components, with a little bit of 'wrapper' that makes is easier to deploy. The biggest issue I haven't sorted out yet is the batteries... LiPo batteries are great in terms of capacity/weight, but if you keep them fully charg…
Swarm them.
When one is approaching 20%, send one that's charged to replace it. Once the replacement has arrived, return the depleted one to the charging station and do not charge past 80% or so.
If you make the charger smart enough to not completely charge the battery, and you have a ..eh.. Battery of copters available, you've solved the problem
Re: The future of jobs: The onrushing wave
#88Decent sci-fi reading list in the sub-headings.
Good catch, thanks for pointing it out.
Re: The future of jobs: The onrushing wave
#89Earlier quoted context omitted.
I was under the impression that more modern building construction and heating technologies have already made a large percentage of professional firefighters redundant - hence why they spend as much time responding to car accidents and working as EMTs as actually fighting fires.
The number of fires has indeed fallen dramatically. However, until the day when there is zero risk of there being a house fire (and we're a _long_ way from that), you still need to maintain a staffing level that can get the job done.
Last year, London announced plans to let go 10% of its firefighting force. This is despite booming population and construction. In 2004, there were 572,000 fires in the UK. In 2013, there were 193,000 reported fires. (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachm...)
Re: The future of jobs: The onrushing wave
#90Earlier quoted context omitted.
It sounds like the technology forecasts in the 50ies and 60ies but with a pessimistic instead of an optimistic undertone.
Pessimistic because we now live in an "I've got mine, screw you" society where the means justifies the end.
I'd be interested to see historical examples of any other kind. Human nature hasn't significantly changed over the past several millennia, as far as I can tell.