Live data from Hacker News

Inside San Francisco's housing crisis

vox.com

81–90 of 185 posts

Re: Inside San Francisco's housing crisis

#81
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because people believe that once they've lived somewhere long enough, they have a right to live there forever. There are a lot of issues with this article. It talks about the Ellis act as if it isn't standard in every other part of the country. (in fact, the only thing non-standard is the state of the world pre-ellis act, where landlords in california could never evict people and decide to stop being landlords )

The Ellis Act is kind of fucked up, dude. It's _not_ standard in every other part of the country. It pegs the buyout price of a unit by law, and hasn't been increased in quite a while. Compare to how it works in Brooklyn: If your landlord wants to evict you without cause, they must purchase your lease from you at a price which you can negotiate. It's much more difficult (and can be costlier) to evict you _for_ cause…

I don't think the Ellis Act allows you to break a lease. It just allows the owner to not have to conform to certain aspects of the rent control law. In most places that aren't rent controlled the leasee doesn't have the option for perpetual renewal in the contract. If the leasee meets all of the stipulations of the contract then he is entitled to live there until his lease expires. The landlord is obligated to perform certain services in regard to the lease and entitled to rent as long as he performs those services. Seems to work everywhere else without the problems listed in the article.

Re: Inside San Francisco's housing crisis

#82
post #18

Loading extremely slowly for me. Google cache: https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:6m1opf... After reading the article, this quote really jumped out at me: "I was going along, being a good citizen," Todd, now 52 years old, says. "I was a volunteer firefighter, I coached football and baseball, I was saving my money, doing everything you're supposed to do, being a single father, raising my daughter by…

These people still remember when you could graduate high school, go to work for GM for a few decades, and have the company pension to depend on in retirement. A suburban house with a white picket fence is somewhere in there too. Nowadays we're much more used to the at-will relationship. The employment only lasts until either the employee or the employer decides that things would be better off if the relationship ende…

At 52, he had no such notion at all, I can virtually guarantee it. That employment model, predicated on strong unions in most cases, was well on its way to oblivion in the mid 80s, and by the time he was actively working, say in the late 80s/early 90s it was on life support. By that time there were vanishingly few people who though they were going to GM or US Steel for a lifetime job with a pension. This millennial vs. the 50-year-old thing is crazily ahistorical.

Re: Inside San Francisco's housing crisis

#84

Why don't these people just move to more affordable places?

Because cost are going up across the board throughout the Bay Area, and the transportation infrastructure - both automotive and otherwise - hasn't kept up. Moving further means increased commuting cost. For drivers this comes in the form of massively increased fuel costs. For transit users this comes in the form of increased fares, since BART practices distance-based pricing. Commuting daily from Fremont to SF costs…

And long commutes mean you're very exposed to gas prices. When our next little middle east adventure starts, or isis wins in iraq, or putin uses oil prices to negotiate with the EU, or whatever it is, the same folks whose FYIGM attitude means people who can't handle their housing prices doubling in 5 years have to leave -- will be saying, "They should have known not to get a long commute and expose themselves to gas prices like that."

Re: Inside San Francisco's housing crisis

#85
I was the person who wrote that super-long take on the San Francisco housing crisis in spring on TechCrunch. http://www.techcrunch.com/2014/04/14/sf-housing/

I'll just say this. It's four issues compounded.

1) Growth controls enacted in the 1960s and 1970s: Beginning in the late 1960s, the California Supreme Court started making a series of anti-development rulings: for example, one decision ruled that cities didn't have to compensate property owners for down-zoning their property, which reduces its value. This, of course, reduced financial risks for city governments that wanted to downzone massive tracts of land in their territory.

At the same time, cities across the Bay began enacting growth controls. Petaluma was the first in 1972, with an ordinance that restricted the number of houses that could be built per year to 500. (Economic studies comparing Petaluma with adjacent cities showed that its property prices rose at a faster pace than cities w/out growth control.)

Anti-growth measures began being widely adopted across the entire region. The behavior of California home prices started deviating from nationwide norms around 1975 or so. The problem became especially acute by the late 1970s, and so homeowners and tenants gave themselves a very sweet deal by effectively freezing their property taxes and rents via Prop. 13 and rent control. This insulated a majority of voters in cities like San Francisco from having to make tough decisions about in-fill development to match population growth. At this point, the mismatch is so out of whack and land is so valuable in San Francisco, that building a lot more housing probably wouldn't make it affordable to, say, a teacher salary level. Construction costs are $500,000 per unit, so your base price has to be at least that.

2) A byproduct of tech-dependent economic development strategy happens to be a lot of income inequality. I haven't seen a good solution to this. After manufacturing jobs dissipated from the U.S., a handful of cities like New York, Boston and San Francisco were successful at reviving themselves through a route of attracting highly-skilled, high-income workers. A consequence of this is a barbell-like jobs market where you have highly compensated workers in finance and tech on one side, and a whole cohort of service workers on the other. I've seen this wherever I travel. I went to Tel Aviv, which is arguably more dependent on tech than San Francisco with 10-11 percent of the workforce in the industry versus 6.7 percent here. Same issues with income inequality, inclusiveness and diversity.

3) Globalization of capital flows. Real estate used to be more of a local business, but now a lot of local firms have been swallowed up by REITS, which don't have any connection to the local community. At the same time, the Chinese property market is collapsing, sending flows of homebuyers and their cash over here. These are people who may not intend to actually live in the Bay Area, yet they buy up homes without even seeing them. The city doesn't know how to police this. How would you build a law or tax around regulating this behavior? New York may attempt a pied-a-terre tax, but no one really knows how to deal with this issue of vacant housing units held as investments. Technologically, it's easy to track who is doing what where at all times. But legally, there are a lot of issues around privacy with policing this if foreign buyers are taking up 1/3 of the new housing stock as investments.

Similarly in the venture world, while overall VC funds being raised is lower than what it was during the first dot-com bubble, according to the NVCA, there's a lot of PE and foreign investment that I don't think is calculated into the overall numbers.

4) Last is the lack of regional coordination. New York is 8.4 million people under one government. London is also 8.4 million people under one government. The Bay Area is 7 million people under 101 city governments and 10 bus and rail systems. There have been numerous attempts to consolidate power over the last century, but all have failed. The California state Constitution also deeply empowers its city governments compared to other states. So what happens is the rich cities don't build any housing, because they like their property values and don't like traffic congestion, or to crowd their schools. This drives prices up in the suburbs to a point where, on balance, urban environments look more attractive -- not just because of changing tastes, but also because they're not that much more expensive than the South Bay. So young people end up crowding into these poorer disinvested neighborhoods like the Mission or Oakland, which then displaces minorities and the elderly far out into the exurbs or even Central California.

Re: Inside San Francisco's housing crisis

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where though? At the end we're really talking about arbitrage. Places with jobs are expensive to live in, places that are cheap to live in don't have jobs. There's no way to win, except maybe temporarily exploiting an arbitrage opportunity (i.e., a place with jobs but the cost of living hasn't caught up yet). Expecting people to do this is unreliable at an individual level, and disastrous as public policy. Ultimately…

There are many affordable and large and fast growing cities with great pay. Dallas, Houston, Boise, and SLC to name a few.

[deleted]

Re: Inside San Francisco's housing crisis

#87
post #45

To those people who believe this is the fault of tech - I have a question. What is the ethical way to move to San Francisco? Or anywhere in the Bay? What do you think is a good solution to this, beyond some variant on tech people owing undefined amounts of money to everyone else?

I don't live in the US so my view is purely that of an outsider reading about this on HN over the last few years. My problem is this: a lot of tech companies, based outside San Francisco go out of their way to make it easy for employees to live in SF and get to work outside of it. This is bad for the people who have lived there for a long time as they can't compete with the money the tech industry brings to the marke…

> My problem is this: a lot of tech companies, based outside San Francisco go out of their way to make it easy for employees to live in SF and get to work outside of it.

This is not accurate, for two reasons.

First off: Many of the peninsula cities (where these tech companies are located) make it even harder to build housing, especially for immigrants. Most of the housing in cities like PA and MV are single family homes that cost upwards of seven figures. You can't even afford that on your average tech salary; the only reason the people living there can afford it is because they moved in before the prices rose so much.

The second, something I only learned recently, as of Sept 30th of this year, companies in the Bay Area with over 50 employees are legally required to either subsidize public transit for their employees, or provide their own (source: https://commuterbenefits.511.org/). Painting Google busses as "going out of their way to make it easy for employees to live in SF" is (at least as of last month) not accurate

Re: Inside San Francisco's housing crisis

#88
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What am I supposed to do, live in fear every day of my life that my job might disappear tomorrow?

I think it's important to cultivate a skillset that makes you valuable in the market, not just to rely on the security of your current position.

Yeah, it would probably bother me less if it were possible to find a job in a reasonable amount of time. Everyone I know who lost a job recently couldn't find work for months. Any reliable trade I can think of takes years to learn if you're apprenticed full-time, so how could I pick that up on the side?

It doesn't help that, even though I went to a pretty nice college, the "career center" encourages resume-spamming as a good way to find a job. And they have completely ass-backwards advice for what to put on a resume - they're very buzzword-focused. I'd like to think I have marketable skills but I never learned how to market them effectively. I've been working on it but how do I know it will work until I really need a new job? And what if the economy gets worse before then? For that matter, how do I know what skills are in demand right now?

Re: Inside San Francisco's housing crisis

#89
post #70

"...tech growth in cities like Seattle has been the same to San Francisco relative to its size, but the rise in the cost of living is less than a third of that experienced in San Francisco. This is largely attributed to the city building more housing to meet demand." This seems to be the root of the problem. So much of the blame gets put on tech companies or the rich getting richer, but no one blames the elected offi…

And yet this thread will be filled with tech employees shitting on those less fortunate than themselves.

And what tech ceo is showing up at city council meetings up and down the peninsula demanding more housing, or in any fucking way using the platform their job gives them to help even their own employees, let alone other people in their communities?

Ladies and gentlemen, DanBlake:

   If you are a 90 year old grandmother who was counting on your landlord not 
   evicting the whole building, you should have known that was a risky bet to 
   begin with. [1]
Yup. Fuck grannie -- why didn't she anticipate rental prices doubling in 5 years?

TheAceOfHearts:

   Why don't these people just move to more affordable places? [2]
Piss on off out of your community, family, job, network, etc etc etc.

DannyBee:

   Because people believe that once they've lived somewhere long enough, they 
   have a right to live there forever. [3]
Yup, it's a mystery why people living in sf don't like tech employees. It's literally stunning fyigm isn't more popular with the community!

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8495124

[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8494967

[3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8495015

Re: Inside San Francisco's housing crisis

#90

Why don't these people just move to more affordable places?

Many may interpret this as victim blaming but I think it's a valid question: why have we as a country/culture become so much more resistant to moving? I know I've read more comprehensive literature on this before a but a quick google brought up these starting points: http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/05/11/declining_ame... http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/03/generati... I understand that we dev…

places where greater opportunity exists

like where? You might as well ask why tech companies don't set up elsewhere and start their own little versions of Silicon Valley instead of spending $$$ to headquarter in SF.

Post reply on HN