Live data from Hacker News

Venture Capitalist Tim Draper Wins Bitcoin Auction

dealbook.nytimes.com

81–90 of 98 posts

Re: Venture Capitalist Tim Draper Wins Bitcoin Auction

#81

Wow, looking at the order book of bitstamp [1] through the eyes of someone who lives in the world of market microstructure is eye opening:) There are huge holes everywhere in the order book and the liquidity at each offering level seems to be completely without reason. I just spent 20 minutes applying the sort of algorithms that'd we'd normally run on each stock to make markets in it and it can't detect any real patt…

Bitcoin trading is mostly done by bots/day traders and the orders shift around all the time a whale/bad news moves the market, so I wouldn't try to find much justification apart from people trying to make short term profit

Re: Venture Capitalist Tim Draper Wins Bitcoin Auction

#83
post #68

Mr Draper states that Bitcoin is badly needed in resource-poor countries with unstable currencies. How does he expect Bitcoin to compete with mobile currencies such as M-Pesa? Thinking about it, I imagine that the advantage of Bitcoin is that it can be sent globally, whereas M-Pesa type currencies are restricted to specific countries.

It's also harder to tax Bitcoin transactions than M-Pesa transactions, which could provide financial incentive to use it.

Re: Venture Capitalist Tim Draper Wins Bitcoin Auction

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do we know his plan to sell them? It's what I would do, but has he stated his intent?

Well, in TFA, it's pretty clear that he plans to team up with Vaurum "to provide Bitcoin liquidity to emerging markets." So, it sounds like he may end up selling them to other people but only as part of a broader strategy to (and I'm guessing here) make it easier to transfer money to and from emerging markets. If that's what he's doing (and bear in mind I'm just guessing here) it's a very ambitious goal. I used to tr…

I've always wondered - what do you do when you lose that much money? What happens next?

Re: Venture Capitalist Tim Draper Wins Bitcoin Auction

#85

how it is different to mine your own bitcoins rather than buying from market? Who decides and based upon what factors - how many coins you can mine?

To simplify: Bitcoin miners race to discover a code that gives them 50 bitcoins. This code gets harder to find each time it is found. This decision is pre-baked in using the bitcoin system (other e-currencies have different traits.)

If you join a mining pool then you split the 50 coins with everyone else in the pool (and they'll split with you) if you are the lucky machine than found the code.

The analogy is pretty direct: mining is the same as going and doing work to dig up gold, buying from the market is the same as buying gold in the market.

Re: Venture Capitalist Tim Draper Wins Bitcoin Auction

#86
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The main driver behind Bitcoin is amateur speculation. As those guys don't stand any chance on real markets, they find opportunity in Bitcoin.

All "real markets" need suckers, just like a wholesale market needs retailers. Institutions are chasing the consumers, not the other way around.

Exactly why eventually Wall Street will get into Bitcoin - it's full of suckers with money.

Re: Venture Capitalist Tim Draper Wins Bitcoin Auction

#87

Wow, looking at the order book of bitstamp [1] through the eyes of someone who lives in the world of market microstructure is eye opening:) There are huge holes everywhere in the order book and the liquidity at each offering level seems to be completely without reason. I just spent 20 minutes applying the sort of algorithms that'd we'd normally run on each stock to make markets in it and it can't detect any real patt…

Well, a big part of the sparsity of the order book is that the tick size is tiny for a market this immature. Take the USD/JPY rate for example, which moves in ticks of 0.01 and is currently sitting at 101.83, so the tick size is 0.0098% of the price (or about 1 basis point). This is a mature currency market between two giant countries. By comparison, BTC/USD also moves in increments of 0.01 but its price is 655, so t…

That should create opportunity for automated trading. Identify large orders and place small orders a de minimis amount ahead of them when the bid-offer spread is sufficiently large. If someone trades with your bid (offer), try to be the best offer (bid) to exit and make the spread. If the large order behind you starts trading, trade with it to lose 0.01.

I've traded these markets by hand before using relative value signals from other exchanges (e.g. buy on bitstamp if btc-e moves up and bitstamp hasn't yet). You can't really do pure arbitrages since it takes so long to move money around but if you can identify which market leads you can use that as a starting point for coming up with a fair price to trade around. I made money easily but gave up on trying to automate it since the volume is so low, bid-offer spreads are often tighter than 2*trading fees, you can't short-sell easily/cheaply, exchanges seem incompetent or downright crooked, laughably bad APIs, etc.

These markets are wildly inefficient though. For a home day-trader or hobbyist there's easy money to be made. It's absurd how slowly price discovery trickles from one market to another. Most modern markets don't even get mispriced by a penny for more than a few microseconds, but there are nickels, dimes, quarters and even dollars of mispricing to capture in BTC/USD markets clicking on the screen.

You could probably dominate with an algo, but how much can you really make in a market that trades 10s of millions in notional value a day? There are also way too many exceptional conditions to let it run even semi-unattended since the exchanges are too immature. Anyone who's capable of doing it can make more doing the same thing on a real market.

ETA: Exchanges in this space are really, really bad. Some don't even know about rounding errors when using floating point for prices. Or would you trust trading on a market that can't even match trades as an atomic event? http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1r4d6t/bitstamps_st...

Re: Venture Capitalist Tim Draper Wins Bitcoin Auction

#88
post #68

Mr Draper states that Bitcoin is badly needed in resource-poor countries with unstable currencies. How does he expect Bitcoin to compete with mobile currencies such as M-Pesa? Thinking about it, I imagine that the advantage of Bitcoin is that it can be sent globally, whereas M-Pesa type currencies are restricted to specific countries.

Isn't M-pesa backed using the country's currency? What logic of what you're saying sounds like it could imply that "Paypal is it's own virtual currency"...

Re: Venture Capitalist Tim Draper Wins Bitcoin Auction

#89
post #85

how it is different to mine your own bitcoins rather than buying from market? Who decides and based upon what factors - how many coins you can mine?

To simplify: Bitcoin miners race to discover a code that gives them 50 bitcoins. This code gets harder to find each time it is found. This decision is pre-baked in using the bitcoin system (other e-currencies have different traits.) If you join a mining pool then you split the 50 coins with everyone else in the pool (and they'll split with you) if you are the lucky machine than found the code. The analogy is pretty d…

The current coinbase reward is 25, not 50, bitcoins. Halves every 4 years.

Re: Venture Capitalist Tim Draper Wins Bitcoin Auction

#90

how it is different to mine your own bitcoins rather than buying from market? Who decides and based upon what factors - how many coins you can mine?

Mining bitcoins is a hardware arms race that will be very hard for new entrants to join unless they are willing to spend a lot.
Post reply on HN