Live data from Hacker News

The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

theatlantic.com

81–90 of 124 posts

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#81

I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. My sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history, naval architecture, navigation, commerce, and agriculture, in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry, and porcelain. John Adams US diplomat & politician (1735 - 1826)

brilliant - except the implication that liberal arts should be all we need by now

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#82
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"1 - virtually no supposed 5x or 10x programmer makes even 2x more. If people are really 5x, why on earth don't I see $300-$500k salaries? [...], it would be an enormous win for employers" Some reasons you don't see higher salaries: 1. It's very hard to measure the difference in programming ability directly. Good programmers also tend not to realise just how much better they are, and are generally unwilling/unable to…

I don't buy the hard to measure argument. CEOs at large companies make a tonne of money. This is usually justified by saying that they are more skilled than the average CEO but this kind of skill is also hard to quantify. Why does this argument work for CEO pay but not programmer pay? If there was really a shortage you'd see salaries for programmers going up. Instead there are documented cases of companies colluding…

"CEOs at large companies make a tonne of money. This is usually justified by saying that they are more skilled than the average CEO but this kind of skill is also hard to quantify. Why does this argument work for CEO pay but not programmer pay?"

Because it's much easier to measure performance of CEO's, at least artificially. If Google does well, then you (supposedly) know that Larry Page is doing well. That's how the market treats it, at least. But can you really tell me that you're able to tell me which of the 10's of thousands of engineers that Google has is responsible for that success?

Also, there's the issue of leverage. Just like a programmer can build software that is used by millions, and therefore has a lot more leverage and creates more wealth, so a CEO usually influences even more customers than the programmer. Paul Graham has an article about exactly that - the idea of a startup is to give e.g. programmers a lot more leverage than they usually have.

And arguably, the fact that a few engineers can build WhatsApp and earn billions is an example of that in action - getting more leverage by building a company, proving success, then gaining the money it gives. But the average exceptional programmer, while being 10X better at programming, won't necessarily also be better at business or money generation, etc.

Lastly, the fact that there are cases of companies colluding to keep pay down proves the opposite of your point - that salaries should have been even higher!

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#83
post #50
post #9

I think it is important to avoid using the term STEM and specifically dissect it in the discussions about shortage. Computer Science is a very peculiar part of STEM and not all of the STEM fields face the same challenges. As Hadi Partovi of Code.org put out eloquently in his testimony before Congress[1], there is a difference between enrollments in Computer Science and STEM in general. For instance, in US high school…

I think it is important to avoid using the term STEM and specifically dissect it in the discussions about shortage. Computer Science is a very peculiar part of STEM and not all of the STEM fields face the same challenges. I think there's a bit of a rhetorical issue with this, though. The dominant narrative is that we have too many people doing soft, fuzzy, weird, useless liberal-arts degrees. Studying things like lit…

Well, even maths and not-applied physics tend to produce technological advances down the road in a way that history tends not to. But it's true that very different ROI timescales are being blurred together under the STEM brandname.

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#84

I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. My sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history, naval architecture, navigation, commerce, and agriculture, in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry, and porcelain. John Adams US diplomat & politician (1735 - 1826)

brilliant - except the implication that liberal arts should be all we need by now

Rather than an all or nothing proposition, I saw this quote as an elegant framing of what the liberal arts are: nice-to-haves in the wake of ought-to-haves in the wake of die-or-haves. In the popular discourse, we aren't always afforded that sense of perspective.

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#85
post #50
post #9

I think it is important to avoid using the term STEM and specifically dissect it in the discussions about shortage. Computer Science is a very peculiar part of STEM and not all of the STEM fields face the same challenges. As Hadi Partovi of Code.org put out eloquently in his testimony before Congress[1], there is a difference between enrollments in Computer Science and STEM in general. For instance, in US high school…

I think it is important to avoid using the term STEM and specifically dissect it in the discussions about shortage. Computer Science is a very peculiar part of STEM and not all of the STEM fields face the same challenges. I think there's a bit of a rhetorical issue with this, though. The dominant narrative is that we have too many people doing soft, fuzzy, weird, useless liberal-arts degrees. Studying things like lit…

To add to this I was very surprised recently trying to hire Statisticians/Mathematicians for a computing data-sciency bioinofrmatics role to find that a couple of PhD students had no computing skills at all. No DB, no linux, no scripting.. just stat applications on Windows. Curiously a few of the best candidates I saw were from "soft" subjects like ecology, geography, social science - where they have real cutting edge statistical chops but were also used to dealing with databases, mapping tools, and modern computing infrastructure.

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#86
post #49
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also possible for there to be a shortage of qualified workers and a surplus of qualified workers...this is a point that people often miss. Qualified US workers have this annoying tendency to be unwilling to uproot their life and move to where the jobs are. Foreign workers coming from other countries don't have this issue...they're moving anyways, so they move where the jobs are. And hi-tech jobs cluster in certa…

How did you get from "It's also possible" to "both sides are right"? Is there actually a shortage of mobile qualified workers in the US? If so, what is your evidence?

(not the OP) I wouldn't say it is definitively true, but evidence to look for is data showing that STEM jobs in some states are paid relatively less than in other states after controlling for cost of living/average local wages: for instance, this graph[0] of wage variance for STEM occupations by state, along with this table[1] showing the wage difference for STEM vs other jobs in each state. (They don't show the exact relationship I'm after because neither of them has cost of living: STEM jobs in DC may only pay slightly higher than average but I assume that's because everyone is making a fair amount).

[0]: http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2011/05/art1full.pdf page 9 [1]: http://www.bloomberg.com/visual-data/best-and-worst/highest-...

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#87
Are wages purely determined by supply and demand though? There is a tale I remember about an economics professor who dumbfounds his class by pointing out that there is a huge surplus of economics students across the country who all want to work for Goldman Sachs. But the wages/bonuses don't fall to reflect the oversupply.

I think the same is true for doctors and dentists. Do very few people want to be company executives or politicians? Is there a scarcity? I don't think so.

Sometimes people are well paid because they are setting their own salaries (many believe bankers have hijacked banks from the shareholders), others are setting the rules within society (politicians), or interpreting those rules (lawyers), or just getting close to those who do (lobbyists, bureaucrats, special interests).

In short the wages of workers are dependent partly on their position of power within society .. of which supply and demand is just one element.

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#88
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's that very few good engineers come in the door I have one possible answer for this issue: Well, no one in the Valley (to best of my knowledge) really advertises that they are going to pay a meaningful multiple of what's considered the market rate to potential employees. So from the potential employee side, it is reasonable to assume that they are going to get paid around the "market rate". The Valley seems to b…

I think we pay very well because when we do find a good person, we offer them enough to get them unless there is some non monetary reason they went with another company. We do not have a problem with people turning down offers, we have a problem with finding enough good people. Another interesting wrinkle to this is the fact that hiring someone at a high salary is a big gamble. How confident can you really be after i…

So you're asking people to apply for a job without telling them how much you will pay, and you think that this lack of information shouldn't affect whether they apply? Salary sensitive potential hires might be ruling themselves out at the application stage: for instance my assumption (as a software engineer) would be that if I have no idea what your salary offer will be, then it will be shit - if it's going to be decent then you'd advertise that publicly. Therefore people that actually apply to your company is the subset that either find out your salary beforehand (eg by knowing someone else there) or don't care what salary you offer or I guess there might exist people who think it makes sense to keep good wages secret.

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#89

Are wages purely determined by supply and demand though? There is a tale I remember about an economics professor who dumbfounds his class by pointing out that there is a huge surplus of economics students across the country who all want to work for Goldman Sachs. But the wages/bonuses don't fall to reflect the oversupply. I think the same is true for doctors and dentists. Do very few people want to be company executi…

the set of econ students who want to work at Goldman is not the supply: the set of econ students that Goldman thinks will make them money is the supply, and I bet very few of them are unemployed.

similar: set of waiters who want to be actors is huge, set of known actors that a studio can say 'his face on the poster will bring in an extra 50 million cinema tickets' is miniscule. That's why all the waiters are acting for free in film student projects and Tom Cruise is a millionaire.

Re: The Myth of the Science and Engineering Shortage

#90
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"two $150K incomes supporting a few kids are at best "comfortable" by the standards of our grandparents" No. This is a gross exaggeration and extremely out of touch with economic reality.

That was my reaction; I'm not sure how someone could have any historical knowledge and think that. My grandparents were, I think, fairly typical middle-class Americans. They raised 2 kids in a ~1200-sq-ft house in the Los Angeles suburbs, which was considered pretty big. Ate out only on special occasions, maybe 8-9 times a year, never just because they didn't feel like cooking. Did not have "help" to mow their lawns,…

There has been a large divergence in purchasing power between consumer goods, permanent assets, and lifestyle/durable goods. Everything that is a mere consumer good or lifestyle good (computers, meals out, washing machines, some cars) has gotten much cheaper. Everything that is at least partially an asset or lifestyle/status good (some cars, almost all real-estate, vacation time, health insurance, possibly a boat) has gotten much more expensive.

The result is a society in which people find it quite easy to obtain what their parents would have called frivolous luxuries (sushi), but quite difficult to obtain what their parents would have called basics (an affordable house in a good neighborhood).

Post reply on HN