Earlier quoted context omitted.
There's usually perfect brackets a couple rounds in. This year was rough. While the first round has half the games, they're usually a lot more predictable than later rounds. This is probably my worst first round ever, anecdotally.
Not true - in ESPN leagues, only 1 bracket the past 7 years made it past the first weekend perfect.
Out of 15M brackets, none remains to win Warren Buffet's $1B March Madness bet
81–84 of 84 posts
Re: Out of 15M brackets, none remains to win Warren Buffet's $1B March Madness bet
#82Earlier quoted context omitted.
In an interview, Warren Buffet suggested that if someone was perfect at the Final Four, he'd offer to buy them out for the EV (or even half the EV). If you aren't already rich, you'd be an idiot to not take his offer. It pays for Warren Buffet to buy someone out for their EV, because that minimizes HIS risk. Even if the person refused the offer, Warren Buffet could go to Vegas and bet on the last couple of games, as…
There is no way to hedge $100M+ on sports bets. Nobody will take that kind of action, even if he spread it around to every single book. I personally think if I was offered $10M as a settlement, I'd take it.
He can start hedging in the Sweet 16 (assuming only 1 perfect bracket exists), where he only has to bet $20k-$100k on each game.
Re: Out of 15M brackets, none remains to win Warren Buffet's $1B March Madness bet
#83Earlier quoted context omitted.
Notice how he's not entered into the Quicken Loans Bracket Pool? They also sent out an email to all the participants stating that nobody was left perfect, so I'm going to guess that he either filled out his bracket post-Round of 64 or was unlucky enough to not actually enter it into the Billion Dollar Challenge.
How is he not in the Quicken Loans bracket? He's at the top of it: https://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/quickenloansbrack... or is that not the right standings list?
I think he simply entered it into Yahoo Sports, but didn't actually submit it to the Quicken Billion Dollar Competition. If he were in the Quicken competition, the bracket page would have it listed under "Pools" - which its not. But I'm not 100% sure.
Re: Out of 15M brackets, none remains to win Warren Buffet's $1B March Madness bet
#84It's not in the article but my guess would be that none of Warren Buffet's money was ever actually on the line. The last time Pepsi had a contest for $1 Billion, they bought insurance against someone meeting the conditions to win the prize. Who'd they buy that insurance from? Berkshire Hathaway. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pepsi_Billion_Dollar_Sweepstake...
Right, same deal this time as I remember reading about it. It is funny that Buffet gets most of the PR when Buffett's company is just making a fortune insuring against a very unlikely outcome. Normally the crazy people marketing the potential $1B payout (that buy insurance from some boring insurance company) would get the PR.
I doubt it's a fortune. After all, given the astronomical odds, I think you'd be able to argue an insignificant premium was appropriate.