Live data from Hacker News

Udacity's Sebastian Thrun, Godfather Of Free Online Education, Changes Course

fastcompany.com

81–90 of 91 posts

Re: Udacity's Sebastian Thrun, Godfather Of Free Online Education, Changes Course

#81
May be they need to incentivize people differently: charge money to sign up for a course. If you finish it, you get it all back (or a certificate - your pick! If you are in the top 10% of the completers, you get a degree as well as your money). If you get through 75%, you get half back. If you get through 50% you get 25% back.

Re: Udacity's Sebastian Thrun, Godfather Of Free Online Education, Changes Course

#82
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I couldn't imagine the costs of running an online class being more than a brick and mortar.

That's the thing: if we're going to make claims about costs, we need to stop imagining them and actually run numbers. The numbers might be wrong, incomplete, or poorly chosen/framed, but those things can be pointed out and discussed.

There are two types of costs. First fixed cost that can be amortized such as professor's time. The cost is lower if it can be amortized over more students: MOOC 10000 students enrolled x 10% completion = 1000 students Stanford 100 students x 100% completion = 100 students

So MOOC can potentially amortize over many more students and thus lower the cost to serve each student. In addition at least for instruction purpose the cost of real estate: MOOC negligible Stanford owner's capitalized rent equivalent for the classroom

The second kind of cost is variable cost that is associated with each student: MOOC: video streaming cost * 10 (to account for 10% completion rate; being very conservative here since students who don't complete likely will also not consume the allotted video bandwidth) Stanford: transportation cost and student's time to get to and from the classroom; additional room and board living on or near campus vs living at home etc

Re: Udacity's Sebastian Thrun, Godfather Of Free Online Education, Changes Course

#83
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the thing: if we're going to make claims about costs, we need to stop imagining them and actually run numbers. The numbers might be wrong, incomplete, or poorly chosen/framed, but those things can be pointed out and discussed.

There are two types of costs. First fixed cost that can be amortized such as professor's time. The cost is lower if it can be amortized over more students: MOOC 10000 students enrolled x 10% completion = 1000 students Stanford 100 students x 100% completion = 100 students So MOOC can potentially amortize over many more students and thus lower the cost to serve each student. In addition at least for instruction purpos…

I'm not entirely sure the faculty cost will be lower longer-term, but it depends on a lot of factors that influence how the market will develop, so I can't say for sure. One reason I think it might turn out higher is that MOOCs may be taught by fewer but more super-star professors than traditional universities. Right now the difference between a top and a mediocre professor in pay is not huge, maybe 2x-3x. But if MOOCs succeed in producing really massive-scale courses, the most popular, charismatic professors could become real media superstars. And if they do, and the market is big and competitive enough to support it, they might be able to garner huge salaries through bidding wars between MOOC providers.

For example, imagine that someone like Richard Feynman, rather than giving his famous lecture series at Caltech for his regular Caltech salary, were doing it in a future era of well-developed MOOCs. He announces he's going to do one final series of physics lectures, but he hasn't decided which MOOC company he's going to do it for. I bet he could negotiate a huge fee for that, much more than even a top-end professor is currently paid. Moving back to the modern day, what if, say, Elon Musk offered to teach a MOOC? You could go for a cheaper, less well-known lecturer, but then you risk looking like the 2nd-rate MOOC company compared to your competitors.

If that's how the market develops, MOOCs might have to pay fees closer to what the public-speaking circuit currently pays prominent lecturers, if they want to attract the top speakers. And those fees are orders of magnitudes higher than what a professor currently makes.

Re: Udacity's Sebastian Thrun, Godfather Of Free Online Education, Changes Course

#84
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It cracks me up that all of the early comments on this thread are so insistent that course completion shouldn't be a goal. Anyone who has taught a college course can tell you that self-reported satisfaction rates are useless as an educational metric. Everyone "wants" to learn, but almost nobody puts in the effort. MOOCs have provided this hype-driven bubble where the people who "want" education get to pretend that th…

It seems like they have a chicken and egg problem. If the courses aren't valuable aside from the benefits of learning (which can be accomplished through other means), then why bother completing them? Meanwhile, it's hard to take the courses seriously when only 5% of the enrollment finishes the course. They can't expect valid results until the utility of the product is valuable.

> If the courses aren't valuable aside from the benefits of learning (which can be accomplished through other means),

The combination of lecture, graded exercise, guided reading (usually) and time constraints that Coursera and EdX courses have is, IMO/IME, a very good combination for learning that makes them better than many other alternatives for the purposes of learning (Udacity is, comparatively, fairly bad at some parts of this.)

> Meanwhile, it's hard to take the courses seriously when only 5% of the enrollment finishes the course.

I think that completion is a bad metric. One of the benefits of MOOCs is that it lowers the sunk cost of entry which encourages broader enrollment, particularly enrollment by people who are experimenting with the content or less certain that outside commitments will be able to be contained in a way that allows completion.

The idea that % complete is a measure of how many people are deriving an educational benefit is wrong.

Re: Udacity's Sebastian Thrun, Godfather Of Free Online Education, Changes Course

#85
I took and take several classes, so far on coursera and edX - and I love it. Taped lectures with quizzes, weekly assignments, exam and maybe even a peer-rated project are definitely a great way to learn something! My goal always is to finish with a certificate because this gives me an idea on how well I am doing.

As a matter of fact I do not like Udacity very much. It is too playful and too unorganized compared to a lot of courses on coursera and pretty much all courses on edX. Udacity tries too hard to educate everybody by being very friendly at all times - this either leads to courses which start out all bubbly and funny and all of a sudden turn complex too suddenly - or courses that stay on that trivial level.

MOOC is awesome but what Thrun apparently doesn't get is that this concept still requires dedication and disciplin from the student. And you can design your class whatever way you like - either the student has it or s/he doesn't.

Also he is comparing apples and pears with his ratio #succesfull/#registered.

#registered of course is a marketing driven KPI and sould be as high as possible, so every time somebody clicks "Learn free" it is counted. But you have to "register" to just figure out what the course really is about and whether it is worth taking!

Also he is a business man and by switching to the new course format it is much easier for Udacity to monetarize - what a surprise. Opposed to edX and coursera, Udacity is kind of a one-man-show and he is maybe too ambitious and lacks patience (see biking with somebody else).

An article on my experience: http://www.joyofdata.de/blog/social-network-analysis-lada-ad...

Re: Udacity's Sebastian Thrun, Godfather Of Free Online Education, Changes Course

#86
Udacity does not equal MOOC - It is just one platform offering online courses and it is inferior in quality and conception to most courses on edx.org and coursera.org. Thrun has a big ego and thinks because he didn't succeed with HIS goals - then the concept of interactive and gradid online learning is doomed. No matter how smart he might be - but that is simply stupid.

Re: Udacity's Sebastian Thrun, Godfather Of Free Online Education, Changes Course

#87
Thrun's new objective - to give industry a voice in the education process, is a valid objective. Most of the research shows that what people learn in school only contributes in a minor way to what they do - they learn most of what they need to know on-the-job. Udacity's new direction will allow companies to help potential prospects acquire those skills beforehand, in this general education-augmented way. It's not a bad idea, and it's definitely something that was needed.

However, it is sad to see one of the most vocal people toss aside the original goal of providing education to the under-priveleged to help them escape poverty. Just saying that poor people have a different set of challenges that make online classes a "poor fit" for them is the easy way out.

It's also sad to hear him say that the true value proposition of education is employment. The notion that education and employment are hand-in-hand related is the thing that holds back the education system the most. Education is about allowing people to move forward - advancing culture, science, technology, etc. so that we're not all stuck plowing fields with oxen. While capitalism ties these advancements to employment and profit, the connection is based entirely on how things are done now, and not how things could or should be done (or even how they were done in the past).

Re: Udacity's Sebastian Thrun, Godfather Of Free Online Education, Changes Course

#88
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are two types of costs. First fixed cost that can be amortized such as professor's time. The cost is lower if it can be amortized over more students: MOOC 10000 students enrolled x 10% completion = 1000 students Stanford 100 students x 100% completion = 100 students So MOOC can potentially amortize over many more students and thus lower the cost to serve each student. In addition at least for instruction purpos…

I'm not entirely sure the faculty cost will be lower longer-term, but it depends on a lot of factors that influence how the market will develop, so I can't say for sure. One reason I think it might turn out higher is that MOOCs may be taught by fewer but more super-star professors than traditional universities. Right now the difference between a top and a mediocre professor in pay is not huge, maybe 2x-3x. But if MOO…

That is why I didn't put it as dollars and cents. If Musk is teaching a class, whether to 100 or 10000 students the cost to him is his time. If he teaches for free then the students capture all the value. Or he could try to capture most of the value for himself. Think of it this way suppose there is total value (or utility) V created through teaching and the cost is C, then the value added is V-C. The value added could go to the professor or the students but either way there is a net benefit to lowering C.

Re: Udacity's Sebastian Thrun, Godfather Of Free Online Education, Changes Course

#89
post #13

It cracks me up that all of the early comments on this thread are so insistent that course completion shouldn't be a goal. Anyone who has taught a college course can tell you that self-reported satisfaction rates are useless as an educational metric. Everyone "wants" to learn, but almost nobody puts in the effort. MOOCs have provided this hype-driven protective bubble where the people who "want" education get to pret…

The problem is not the initiative, it is the product. Merely replicate the classroom form of education to web will not cut it. It is not people learn things once they are out of campus hence the high drop out rate. The most agitated group of people in term of perpetrated learning is programmers. This professor needs to get his cue from place like GitHub, even YouTube. His class content design is boring ... Desperate needs innovation.
Post reply on HN