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First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and 60 Minutes

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Re: First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and 60 Minutes

#81

Post by chroem »

benjamincburns wrote: post #13

In all of the criticism, I haven't seen anything remarking on the energy cost for this. I can hear a strawman in the audience saying "But drones are tiny/electric/cheap!" Not at these scales. Consider the (lack of) efficiency of quadcopters, the weights and distances involved, and the total sales volume for this service in even a small test market. I'd buy that flight itself is a viable option over wheeled vehicles w…

Actually, the real cost comes from batteries. They're only good for a finite number of cycles, and under the high loads they'll experience in this sort of application, I would put that number at around 250-750 flights. So if you're spending $30-$50 a battery, that adds up pretty quickly. Electricity is really cheap in comparison.

Re: First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and 60 Minutes

#82

Post by loup-vaillant »

ye wrote: post #39
swalsh wrote: post #35

People say that there's usually about a 10 year lag before tech from the military enters civilian use. Since drones showed up roughly 2003, it stands to reason that 2013 is when we should first starting seeing the tech become civilian viable. In fact that seems to be true, there's a whole lot of DIY material out there, and that's from people who don't have real world experience. I wouldn't be surprised if as military…

You're confusing huge ridiculously expensive military drones, which are essentially small planes, with what Amazon is showing us, which are essentially small helicopters. There's no way in the world these tiny drones can fly 10 miles each way, carry 5lbs of payload, deliver the package perfectly on the driveway/doorstep, and cost low enough to not be a financial nightmare. That's not even accounting for dealing with…

> There's no way in the world these tiny drones can fly 10 miles each way, carry 5lbs of payload

Today, there are prototypes that cost $2000, can carry well over 2kg (high definition cameras and such), and have a twenty miles range (that's 40 miles worth of "fuel"). As for perfect delivery… until you can miniaturize self-driving car technology, you can always have a human pilot manually landing the thing and take off. 30 seconds of human work for a small delivery, that's not too bad.

Re: First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and 60 Minutes

#83

Post by Spooky23 »

criley2 wrote: post #47
ye wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're confusing huge ridiculously expensive military drones, which are essentially small planes, with what Amazon is showing us, which are essentially small helicopters. There's no way in the world these tiny drones can fly 10 miles each way, carry 5lbs of payload, deliver the package perfectly on the driveway/doorstep, and cost low enough to not be a financial nightmare. That's not even accounting for dealing with…

Sorry, but who are you? Who are you to stand up and call Amazon's idea unviable? Why is their idea unviable? Because they have no proof? Well you certainly proved how unviable the idea is with your lack of proof. Quite frankly, when it comes to Bezos vs "ye", I have to say that the billionaire owner of one of the most successful stores in our world is SLIGHTLY more credible than "ye", random commenter who has no doma…

Who are you? Why are you drinking the kool-aid?

This is a very obvious PR move to get more clicks on a major shopping week and squelch a developing news story about Amazon's labor practices in the UK.

Amazon may well deliver books to me with a mini-helicopter in 2018. But they absolutely will sell more stuff due to the Prime Air attention, and will slow down the momentum on negative press that might send some holiday shoppers elsewhere. I find the idea that a billionaire owner of THE premier ecommerce business would come up with such a plan very credible.

Re: First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and 60 Minutes

#84

Post by haukilup »

001sky wrote: post #65
wavefunction wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about "ruthless tyrant?" I'm making a point to shop locally now. I've already seen what supporting Walmart has done to our country.

I've already seen what supporting Walmart has done to our country Have you ever shopped there? Or do you just repeat what you read all the time? Wall mart typically only exists in rural poor areas, and I doubt a drive-by HN commenter has any sense of proportion on the real issues at play. Wall-mart migh mean more competition for mom & pop stores, but they also bring reliable and affordable access to otherwise unaffor…

You say "Wall mart typically only exists in rural poor areas", is this true?

Here in Canada, Walmart is pretty much in every city, regardless of income. The only place Walmarts don't exist is in areas where the population is too sparse, or rent is too high (e.g. downtown Toronto).

I find it hard to believe Walmart is only "in rural poor areas", unless their position is radically different in the States.

Re: First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and 60 Minutes

#85

Post by cynwoody »

bandushrew wrote: post #75
grellas wrote: post #69

I am not a technology expert and I am not a marketing expert but, as a consumer, I have moved gradually over the years from using Amazon primarily for online book-buying to using it extensively for all kinds of retail buying needs. The Prime service has been central to that experience because human psychology appears to be perverse and something so small as "free" 2-day shipping, though not really free, seems to have…

"Whatever else this is, it cannot be mere vaporware. " I am unclear on why not, exactly? 4-5 years before it appears, with the obvious possibility that it never does for regulatory reasons, technology reasons.... At this point I wouldn't call it vaporware, its not that far along. It is still a fantasy. A nice fantasy. I loved the idea. but, for now, just a fantasy. Check back in 4-5 years (or 5-10 years?) when someth…

A startup in Australia, Flirtey,† has partnered with a university textbook seller to deliver books via hexacopter on/near campus. They are hoping to begin operation next March. When the drone arrives, the customer presses a button on their smartphone app, and the package is lowered down to them.

†http://www.damngeeky.com/2013/10/16/14713/parcel-drone-will-...

Video: http://vimeo.com/76606906

Re: First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and 60 Minutes

#86

Post by RokStdy »

ye wrote: post #39
swalsh wrote: post #35

People say that there's usually about a 10 year lag before tech from the military enters civilian use. Since drones showed up roughly 2003, it stands to reason that 2013 is when we should first starting seeing the tech become civilian viable. In fact that seems to be true, there's a whole lot of DIY material out there, and that's from people who don't have real world experience. I wouldn't be surprised if as military…

You're confusing huge ridiculously expensive military drones, which are essentially small planes, with what Amazon is showing us, which are essentially small helicopters. There's no way in the world these tiny drones can fly 10 miles each way, carry 5lbs of payload, deliver the package perfectly on the driveway/doorstep, and cost low enough to not be a financial nightmare. That's not even accounting for dealing with…

Yes, you mention 'safety issues'. Can you imagine the liability insurance you'd need to have in order to run a business where you have autonomous flying robots with packages suspended from them flying around? Holy crap. There are so many possible points of failure.

Call me a Luddite but I will be perfectly happy to never see this become a reality.

Re: First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and 60 Minutes

#87

Post by superuser2 »

danellis wrote: post #30
ljd wrote: post #6

It seems obvious to me that Bezos took this one public so early to garner public support so that the FAA can't just sit on it forever. All of Amazon's other initiatives didn't need some federal regulator to OK it before they could start selling it. I think this is an effective solution to getting a notoriously slow agency to move on an item. No one wants to be seen as stopping innovation, not even the FAA.

What worries me is that whatever regulations the FAA come up with will suit Amazon just fine, but will put drones out of reach of hobbyists.

Rules for fully autonomous commercial flight might not (and should not) changed the rules for hobbyist, noncommercial flight.

Manually but remotely piloted aircraft (RC planes) are still a huge hobby and the FAA does not currently care how automated the flight is, only that it is noncommercial and that you can see the aircraft from the controls. It's doubtful that the FAA would amend these rules rather than create a separate category for unattended commercial flight.

Re: First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and 60 Minutes

#88

Post by wavefunction »

001sky wrote: post #65
wavefunction wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about "ruthless tyrant?" I'm making a point to shop locally now. I've already seen what supporting Walmart has done to our country.

I've already seen what supporting Walmart has done to our country Have you ever shopped there? Or do you just repeat what you read all the time? Wall mart typically only exists in rural poor areas, and I doubt a drive-by HN commenter has any sense of proportion on the real issues at play. Wall-mart migh mean more competition for mom & pop stores, but they also bring reliable and affordable access to otherwise unaffor…

I have shopped there. My father currently works at a Walmart in his vicinity. I also grew up in a "rural poor area." I shop at my local discount grocer rather than Whole Foods.

Is it ok for me to criticise now?

Re: First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and 60 Minutes

#90

Post by jlarocco »

haukilup wrote: post #84
001sky wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've already seen what supporting Walmart has done to our country Have you ever shopped there? Or do you just repeat what you read all the time? Wall mart typically only exists in rural poor areas, and I doubt a drive-by HN commenter has any sense of proportion on the real issues at play. Wall-mart migh mean more competition for mom & pop stores, but they also bring reliable and affordable access to otherwise unaffor…

You say "Wall mart typically only exists in rural poor areas", is this true? Here in Canada, Walmart is pretty much in every city, regardless of income. The only place Walmarts don't exist is in areas where the population is too sparse, or rent is too high (e.g. downtown Toronto). I find it hard to believe Walmart is only "in rural poor areas", unless their position is radically different in the States.

It's not even remotely true.

In reality, it's about the same as you describe in Canada. They're not opening stores in dinky towns of 500 people, and they're not buying expensive premium real estate, but they're almost every where between those extremes.

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