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Thoughts on Bitcoin

blog.samaltman.com

81–90 of 213 posts

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#81
His article is premised on this:

"The estimates I’ve heard from smart people that really follow bitcoin are that legitimate transactions are up only about 2-3x from a year ago"

That's hardly scientific. I've used Bitcoin for several purchases of "legitimate" things, and look to continue to do so whenever possible.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#82
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wanted to buy right when it hit $850 a few days ago. I redeemed my $11k mutual fund, but the wire transfer took until Friday to go trough. By the time I was able to buy bitcoins, they were $1111 on coinbase. Bought anyway. Got 9.89BTC. Just lost $2k of that investment, according to the markets. Though it seems to be recovering somewhat. Ow. Anyway, I'm long on bitcoin. Maybe it will crash and I'll lose everything.…

> Though it seems to be recovering somewhat. Ow. As with most investments, you need to think medium and long term. Barring some kind of final(!) crash, there isn't anywhere to go for BTC but up. Mainstream media and ordinary people are just now starting to talk about it. Stay with your investment, and don't sell before it at least doubled. If it crashes temporarily, that's fine too: chaos is a ladder. Within reasonab…

By your definition of a "mistake", the biggest mistake you probably made in your life was not buying all the Medifast Inc stock you could get your hands on in 1999. It went up 16,210% in ten years.

But wait, it gets worse. Even just going back a year, if you had bought and sold the right stocks at the right times, you'd be the richest person on earth by far, even if you only started with a few bucks.

But don't worry, you could do the same thing over the next year. You've learned from your "mistakes," right?

In all seriousness, your financial advice is pretty bad and akin to recommending gambling strategies for Roulette. If you both realize you are gambling and are cheering each other on for fun, that's one thing, but I get the sense that you really don't understand that you are in fact gambling.

I have never seen a clearer speculative bubble (as seen from within the midst of the bubble and not hindsight) in my lifetime than this one. You just don't invest for the medium or long term on a speculative bubble. Bitcoins do have some intrinsic value, but as the author of the article we're all commenting on noted, the price of Tulips still hasn't recovered to its 1637 peak.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#83
post #82
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Though it seems to be recovering somewhat. Ow. As with most investments, you need to think medium and long term. Barring some kind of final(!) crash, there isn't anywhere to go for BTC but up. Mainstream media and ordinary people are just now starting to talk about it. Stay with your investment, and don't sell before it at least doubled. If it crashes temporarily, that's fine too: chaos is a ladder. Within reasonab…

By your definition of a "mistake", the biggest mistake you probably made in your life was not buying all the Medifast Inc stock you could get your hands on in 1999. It went up 16,210% in ten years. But wait, it gets worse. Even just going back a year, if you had bought and sold the right stocks at the right times, you'd be the richest person on earth by far, even if you only started with a few bucks. But don't worry,…

[deleted]

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#84
post #49

I've been watching bitcoin since $30, bought at $80, and sold last night. I think that Stefan Molyneux (or however you spell it) is right on when he says that bitcoin is "a revolutionary protocol for information synchronization." However, it is by no means unique, and as we've seen, anyone can start their own bitcoin-type cryptocurrency. Apparently, the Canadian government is working on their own, and I don't think i…

I actually think the decentralized nature of bitcoin is what gives it all it's value. The fact that no bank can control it, inherently holds value. Currency manipulation is a really big problem right now, and knowing that you can buy a currency that won't be artificially controlled by it's issuer is an asset in itself. Having the currency centrally controlled again isn't special and it doesn't deviate enough from a c…

That argument doesn't make much sense to me.

If first-world currencies were being drastically manipulated in ways that cost currency-holders lots of wealth, then I'd expect to see currencies decline relative to things that are directly valuable, like commodities. But that's clearly not the case:

http://www.economist.com/news/economic-and-financial-indicat...

The price of gold is down, too:

http://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do

Further, I think a government can pretty easily influence the price of bitcoin: the bitcoin market is still relatively small, so somebody with billions of dollars to spend should be able to heavily manipulate the price.

But even you were right about it being proof against government manipulation, I think it would still only be better for people seeking stability if the volatility of bitcoin were lower than government-backed currencies. But bitcoin is insanely volatile compared to first-world currencies.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#85
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually think the decentralized nature of bitcoin is what gives it all it's value. The fact that no bank can control it, inherently holds value. Currency manipulation is a really big problem right now, and knowing that you can buy a currency that won't be artificially controlled by it's issuer is an asset in itself. Having the currency centrally controlled again isn't special and it doesn't deviate enough from a c…

The fact that no bank can control it, inherently holds value. But the fact that anyone can roll their own competing currency inherently kills value, doesn't it?

Anyone can roll a Facebook competitor, or a search engine, etc. Market adoption is important.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#86

I've been watching bitcoin since $30, bought at $80, and sold last night. I think that Stefan Molyneux (or however you spell it) is right on when he says that bitcoin is "a revolutionary protocol for information synchronization." However, it is by no means unique, and as we've seen, anyone can start their own bitcoin-type cryptocurrency. Apparently, the Canadian government is working on their own, and I don't think i…

I wanted to buy right when it hit $850 a few days ago. I redeemed my $11k mutual fund, but the wire transfer took until Friday to go trough. By the time I was able to buy bitcoins, they were $1111 on coinbase. Bought anyway. Got 9.89BTC. Just lost $2k of that investment, according to the markets. Though it seems to be recovering somewhat. Ow. Anyway, I'm long on bitcoin. Maybe it will crash and I'll lose everything.…

I'm curious how people plan on paying Capitol gains taxes on profits or reporting losses.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#87

His article is premised on this: "The estimates I’ve heard from smart people that really follow bitcoin are that legitimate transactions are up only about 2-3x from a year ago" That's hardly scientific. I've used Bitcoin for several purchases of "legitimate" things, and look to continue to do so whenever possible.

Well, not to belabor the point, are you saying that your anecdotal evidence is better than his anecdotal evidence? Or that we shouldn't take the perspectives of Sam Altman's experts' opinions too heavily?

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#89
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually think the decentralized nature of bitcoin is what gives it all it's value. The fact that no bank can control it, inherently holds value. Currency manipulation is a really big problem right now, and knowing that you can buy a currency that won't be artificially controlled by it's issuer is an asset in itself. Having the currency centrally controlled again isn't special and it doesn't deviate enough from a c…

Different strokes for different folks. I think its decentralized nature is its least valuable aspect. If the only thing it accomplished were smoother and cheaper internet, small business, and interpersonal commerce, it would be incredibly valuable. The novelty of it (which I think has a lot to do with its decentralization) is currently causing too much volatility to make it useful for actually buying and selling thin…

Decentralization is very expensive because it requires mining, so if you don't think that's important you should probably back a more efficient system like Ripple or Open-Transactions.
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