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Tesla lost $38M in third quarter, stock tumbles over 12 percent

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Re: Tesla lost $38M in third quarter, stock tumbles over 12 percent

#81

Post by Shivetya »

arprocter wrote: post #78
triplesec wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do believe the volt makes Chevrolet a loss for every unit sold. If this is a deliberate loss leader to put Tesla out of business, then it is an issue. They're all looking for market share, but Tesla has less capital backing. OTOH it has less crummy baacklog and infrastructure, so it may be nimble eough to survive

Tesla is aiming for the M5 end of the market, Volt is more of a Prius

Considering the state of battery technology did Tesla have any choice? Even their new X will be more expensive than the S.

To get his range he needed long wheelbase large cars. To get range he needed more than a 1000lbs of batteries.

He won't get to the lower end of the market unless batteries improve and by then he will have ceded it to the established players who will and are willing to offer more than electric only solutions.

Re: Tesla lost $38M in third quarter, stock tumbles over 12 percent

#82

Post by dingaling »

Tarang wrote: post #71

If you think about it, the largest typical object people would buy in terms of value is a car. A house can last a last time but less so a car. I think the reason for investor's optimism in Tesla is their vision is to get everyone a car. If you look at the design of the Model S it can allow for a very cheap & safe car (The Tata Nano had issues with safety at first). I would say this is still a baby as a company even n…

> I think the reason for investor's optimism in Tesla is their vision is to get everyone a car.

I suppose that's a vision, but not one that I see fitting-in with the general social and governmental direction for transportation, globally.

Why would everyone want a car, even if the infrastructure could sustain that? We don't all have our own aeroplanes or boats, we lease time on them when we need to use those methods of transport.

Re: Tesla lost $38M in third quarter, stock tumbles over 12 percent

#83

Post by podperson »

tsenkov wrote: post #73
ChuckMcM wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[I don't currently own any stock or options in TSLA] Sort of and sorta not. There is a tremendous amount of speculation in Tesla stock. That came about from a number of people making very large bets against and for the company (option trading is quite active for such a 'young' company). The stock is "priced for perfection" which is to say it is priced at a value that only makes sense if Tesla meets every objective, h…

Disclaimer: I have no idea how a stock is prised. Is the stock prise directly related to the revenue/losses of the company? If this is true, couldn't the losses be explained by this: >"Production in the quarter significantly exceeded deliveries in order to fill the pipeline of vehicles in transit to Europe and provide cars for service and marketing uses." Probably by a long shot (considering so many uncertainties in…

Stock is priced like anything else: what people are willing to pay. In theory a stock represents a share of a business, and so its price is a bet on the lifetime return of the stock at the time of purchase -- if you pay $100 for a stock today, you expect the "net present value" of that stock to pan out to at least the net present value of $100 invested in something really safe (e.g. in treasuries... oh wait, hmm... gold, er ah no... in C-notes under your bed).

Re: Tesla lost $38M in third quarter, stock tumbles over 12 percent

#84

Post by makomk »

marvin wrote: post #77
codex wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a worry Tesla is hiding softening sales. They had the capacity to produce 7150 cars this quarter but only sold 5550, a difference of 1650. Some of those cars are en route to Europe, but still, the number seems high. Talking about producing vehicles for internal use and marketing purposes, along with increased investment in new models and versions, can be interpreted as "our U.S. sales are softening unexpected…

Musk specifically covered this in the earnings call. They are production constrained and had to hold back deliveries in the US to ensure that people who made reservations in Europe two years ago would get their car.

According to the summary I've seen[1] he said they were constrained by the available supply of batteries. Now, Musk spun this as a temporary setback, but one of the most widely-reported potential issues they have is that the number of batteries they need is huge. As in, if they expand much they'd require the entire current global production of 18650 cells[2] - and that's just to produce 40,000 cars a year!

[1] http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrogowsky/2013/11/05/live-tes... [2] http://jalopnik.com/tesla-could-use-up-all-the-worlds-laptop...

Re: Tesla lost $38M in third quarter, stock tumbles over 12 percent

#85

Post by _ea1k »

rdl wrote: post #50
derekp7 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If another company came up with a dual-powered version of the Tesla, then I would definitely buy that. The current round of plugin hybrids don't offer enough battery-only range for me. I'd like to see about 100 mile battery only (in case I forget to plug it in), plus a small engine and 10-gallon tank. I wouldn't think the gas engine would have to be that large, especially if it were designed to use the battery as a b…

Depends a lot on speed, the shape of the car, and other factors, but on the order of 10-30 HP for something like the Model S at 70mph I think. I still really want a hybrid truck, running diesel, with the ability to seat 2 people, secure cargo space (like a custom bed with lockboxes), 4wd, and the ability to run the engine for a week or two in place as a generator (e.g. at a remote comms site). Run the engine during t…

VIA Motors is the closest thing to this that I know of: http://www.viamotors.com/

Re: Tesla lost $38M in third quarter, stock tumbles over 12 percent

#87

Post by smackfu »

arprocter wrote: post #78
triplesec wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do believe the volt makes Chevrolet a loss for every unit sold. If this is a deliberate loss leader to put Tesla out of business, then it is an issue. They're all looking for market share, but Tesla has less capital backing. OTOH it has less crummy baacklog and infrastructure, so it may be nimble eough to survive

Tesla is aiming for the M5 end of the market, Volt is more of a Prius

Currently. But the plan in theory is to move downmarket.

Re: Tesla lost $38M in third quarter, stock tumbles over 12 percent

#88

Post by codex »

makomk wrote: post #84
marvin wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk specifically covered this in the earnings call. They are production constrained and had to hold back deliveries in the US to ensure that people who made reservations in Europe two years ago would get their car.

According to the summary I've seen[1] he said they were constrained by the available supply of batteries. Now, Musk spun this as a temporary setback, but one of the most widely-reported potential issues they have is that the number of batteries they need is huge. As in, if they expand much they'd require the entire current global production of 18650 cells[2] - and that's just to produce 40,000 cars a year! [1] http:/…

This is one reason Nissan makes their own batteries in their own plants.

Re: Tesla lost $38M in third quarter, stock tumbles over 12 percent

#89

Post by codex »

marvin wrote: post #77
codex wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a worry Tesla is hiding softening sales. They had the capacity to produce 7150 cars this quarter but only sold 5550, a difference of 1650. Some of those cars are en route to Europe, but still, the number seems high. Talking about producing vehicles for internal use and marketing purposes, along with increased investment in new models and versions, can be interpreted as "our U.S. sales are softening unexpected…

Musk specifically covered this in the earnings call. They are production constrained and had to hold back deliveries in the US to ensure that people who made reservations in Europe two years ago would get their car.

Something doesn't add up then: if Tesla can produce 7150 cars per quarter, why is next quarter guidance only for 5K cars sold? Another new market with long lead times?

Re: Tesla lost $38M in third quarter, stock tumbles over 12 percent

#90

Post by rdl »

SwellJoe wrote: post #64
PakG1 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They will sell more cars than they can manufacture (and maybe more electric cars than anyone else can manufacture also, due to the current limited battery availability). They will continue to execute well on battery acquisition and development. This battery supply thing reminds me of this story: http://qr.ae/N0Uxr

That takes balls. And, possibly a bit of stupidity.

Not really much stupidity. Corporate limited liability. He placed a bunch of orders and bet his company on the outcome of his product, but he would have been just as out of business if no one bought his soap.
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