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Bitcoin heading towards $200, new bubble forming

bitcoinwisdom.com

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Re: Bitcoin heading towards $200, new bubble forming

#81

Post by snitko »

jbooth wrote: post #74
snitko wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin is not a ponzi scheme. It's a technology with actual useful properties. The code is out there to see. If you don't understand why these properties are useful to so many people, I welcome you to the third world countries where you can't start selling your product to the rest of the world (even if it's a great one), because PayPal doesn't work with your country and cc processors won't let you accept cards from…

It can't be both? The declining rate of bitcoin generation certainly has ponzi-like properties. It seems like the primary motivation to mine is assuming that the value will go up as mining becomes more difficult.

So? Is Gold a ponzi scheme too? I don't see a problem with the declining rate of generation because you can divide Bitcoin up to some pretty small fractions. You have to really wrap your head around deflation, you know. It's a beautiful and healthy thing, it's just that we've been told it's not.

Re: Bitcoin heading towards $200, new bubble forming

#82

Post by csomar »

neals wrote: post #25

$200? Hardly. Maybe if you look at Mt.Gox, it might look like you could get $190 per bitcoin. Howerver, there is no way to actually get that money to your bank account, since Mt. Gox hasn't been doing any banktransfers for months. The price is high on Mt.Gox because people that have money on there can only get it out by buying Bitcoins and transfering those to other exchanges. This drives the Mt.Gox price up. If you…

My experience was that buying Bitcoins from other exchanges is usually much more expensive than Mt.Gox. I'm not sure about selling, though.

Re: Bitcoin heading towards $200, new bubble forming

#83

Post by snitko »

jbooth wrote: post #74
snitko wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin is not a ponzi scheme. It's a technology with actual useful properties. The code is out there to see. If you don't understand why these properties are useful to so many people, I welcome you to the third world countries where you can't start selling your product to the rest of the world (even if it's a great one), because PayPal doesn't work with your country and cc processors won't let you accept cards from…

It can't be both? The declining rate of bitcoin generation certainly has ponzi-like properties. It seems like the primary motivation to mine is assuming that the value will go up as mining becomes more difficult.

As for the miners, yes, they pursue their own self interest, of course. But what they are really doing is helping the network process transactions. So it's very similar to how Adam Smith described businessmen in a free market: they don't need to believe in higher ideals or something, they can be greedy and such, but they inevitably will do good.

Re: Bitcoin heading towards $200, new bubble forming

#84

Post by jafaku »

enoch_r wrote: post #65
Choronzon wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its inherently deflationary anyway (which is a terrible idea for a currency).

It's extremely implausible for everyone to know that the value of ${commodity} will rise steadily, with no risk, for the foreseeable future. Why? Think of the second-order effects of what you're saying--I expect the value of ${commodity} to rise indefinitely, so what do I do? Buy ${commodity}. Or, I own a bunch of ${commodity} and expect the price to rise indefinitely--what do I do if someone offers to buy my ${commo…

I never thought of that, you are right. In the current culture, inflation seems to make most people happy due to the inflated paycheck, even when they actually are at loss. But if we ever reach the point where people get paid in Bitcoin, maybe we will already have gone through a cultural shift, and people will finally understand money. Can you imagine a type I civilization still falling for the same lies? I can't.

Re: Bitcoin heading towards $200, new bubble forming

#86

Post by jbooth »

snitko wrote: post #81
jbooth wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It can't be both? The declining rate of bitcoin generation certainly has ponzi-like properties. It seems like the primary motivation to mine is assuming that the value will go up as mining becomes more difficult.

So? Is Gold a ponzi scheme too? I don't see a problem with the declining rate of generation because you can divide Bitcoin up to some pretty small fractions. You have to really wrap your head around deflation, you know. It's a beautiful and healthy thing, it's just that we've been told it's not.

So you're saying it has ponzi-ish properties? Or not?

If you're always incentivized to hold something and never incentivized to spend it, it becomes more of an asset than a currency. Gold is an asset, too, but it has much broader market participation in addition to being "special" as a value store due to 6,000 years of tradition.

If you've got an asset with a lot of hype that's supposed to always increase in value, so you better get on board now unless you want to be a sucker, that looks a lot like a ponzi scheme to me. You can still make money on it, don't let me stop you. You're probably not going to refactor capitalism with it.

Additionally, (I'm assuming you're a little young and naive here, apologies if that's not the case), additionally I'd really suggest decoupling your personal political beliefs from investment decisions with real money. It never ends well.

Re: Bitcoin heading towards $200, new bubble forming

#87

Post by mediocregopher »

It's better to not use MtGox as a baseline price anymore, it's at about $20 higher then any other exchange due to the fact that you can't actually get your money out of it ATM. Check the btc-e graph for a better view:

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/btcusd

(They both show the same trend, I'm just being pedantic)

Re: Bitcoin heading towards $200, new bubble forming

#88

Post by elux »

MarcusBrutus wrote: post #41

How many legitimate real world services and products currently accept Bitcoins? I understand it is only the Chinese search engine. I also take it for granted that any major Euro/US-based organization (be it Google or Domino's Pizza) that starts accepting Bitcoins will instantly face very serious political repercussions. Given these facts it is astonishing that Bitcoin seems to be heading from strength to strength.

>How many legitimate real world services and products currently accept Bitcoins? I understand it is only the Chinese search engine.

The hundreds (thousands now?) of (mostly) small businesses accepting bitcoin for goods and services include gift card vendors. [1]

You can spend your bitcoins on gift cards (a form of virtual currency in itself) which you can use at some of the world's largest retailers, for example Amazon[2] or Walmart [3].

It's a two-step process, but you can use your bitcoins at Amazon or Walmart, today.

[1] https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade#Gift.2FDebit_Cards

[2] http://www.gyft.com/shop-for-gift-cards/

[3] http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1om2jm/egifter_now_...

Re: Bitcoin heading towards $200, new bubble forming

#89

Post by snitko »

jbooth wrote: post #86
snitko wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So? Is Gold a ponzi scheme too? I don't see a problem with the declining rate of generation because you can divide Bitcoin up to some pretty small fractions. You have to really wrap your head around deflation, you know. It's a beautiful and healthy thing, it's just that we've been told it's not.

So you're saying it has ponzi-ish properties? Or not? If you're always incentivized to hold something and never incentivized to spend it, it becomes more of an asset than a currency. Gold is an asset, too, but it has much broader market participation in addition to being "special" as a value store due to 6,000 years of tradition. If you've got an asset with a lot of hype that's supposed to always increase in value, s…

No, I don't believe Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme at all. And I really don't think my age is relevant, you either have arguments or you don't.

But let's come back to that notion of yours

> If you're always incentivized to hold something and never incentivized to spend it, it becomes more of an asset than a currency."

Let's say all you got is 10btc and $0 in your bank account. And you need some food. You're probably gonna decide not to starve yourself to death because being alive tomorrow is more valuable to you than having more money and being dead. Thus you are going to spend your bitcoins (either directly or by exchanging them into fiat).

Now, what you probably wouldn't do is buy something you don't really need or want at the moment. And that's fine, in this case Bitcoin encourages responsible spending. Now, of course, you should understand why a deflationary currency grows long term - not speculation, but new products and services in the economy. If no one spends, then no new products and services appear, currency is not gaining in value. If it's not gaining in value anymore you have your incentives to spend back.

The major differences with a deflationary currency are this: 1. No one forces you to spend (like governments inflating your money), so you make decisions on your own. 2. Deflation is an ultimate tax that rich cannot avoid. If you make money, you will inevitably share it with the rest (their money gaining in value).

Re: Bitcoin heading towards $200, new bubble forming

#90

Post by jbooth »

snitko wrote: post #89
jbooth wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you're saying it has ponzi-ish properties? Or not? If you're always incentivized to hold something and never incentivized to spend it, it becomes more of an asset than a currency. Gold is an asset, too, but it has much broader market participation in addition to being "special" as a value store due to 6,000 years of tradition. If you've got an asset with a lot of hype that's supposed to always increase in value, s…

No, I don't believe Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme at all. And I really don't think my age is relevant, you either have arguments or you don't. But let's come back to that notion of yours > If you're always incentivized to hold something and never incentivized to spend it, it becomes more of an asset than a currency." Let's say all you got is 10btc and $0 in your bank account. And you need some food. You're probably gonna…

When it comes to thinking "this time is different" and "I have an idea to refactor the world economy", your age is VERY relevant.

Everyone thinks they have a simple way to fix everything when they're 22. By the time you're 30-40 it's amazing how much smarter the rest of the world got. You can take my word for it as regards politics and investment, or not, it's your money.

On the argument, you're implicitly admitting that you wouldn't spend bitcoins until you were completely out of dollars, because bitcoins will 'always appreciate'. That's kinda conceding my point as far as asset vs currency. You can sell stock for dollars if you're short on cash as well.

It seems that we agree on the effects of deflationary currency incentivizing not spending money. There's a few examples of that phenomenon happening in the real world, and none of them were really great for GDP growth (severe understatement). You know that spending by a lot of people is what adds up to that 14T GDP number, right?

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