Tell the Germans to fuck off, leave the Euro, pull an Argentina, watch the new peso exchange drop to 1000 to 1 Euro, get a flood of French and Germans hunting for bargains, which generates jobs. But make customs treat these tourists like shit, just for a little passive aggressive revenge.
Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts
81–90 of 120 posts
Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts
#82Earlier quoted context omitted.
That might be the long-term solution to the nation's problems. But on an individual level, it would be disastrous for an unemployed person or someone worried about losing their job to increase their financial responsibilities by having kids.
Yes and No In societies of extreme poverty children have long been viewed a hedge against old age
Just to make it clear: Spain, and the rest of Southern Europe are developed countries with high standards of living; extreme poverty is not even a prospect now.
Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts
#83Earlier quoted context omitted.
Have we totally forgotten Keynes? My spending is your income. The resources of an economy (in this case, many of Spain's workers) are lying idle. The entire country would be wealthier if they were put to work. Further, I don't know what you mean by "easy living", but Spain was more fiscally responsible than even Germany before the crisis. Spain's deficits are not the result of irresponsible borrowing and spending (as…
No we have not fogotten him. We should, though because he was wrong. Stimulus doesn't work.
Except he was right and austerity works even less.
Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts
#84Earlier quoted context omitted.
The plan was "harmonization" of tax and spending policies. It's not really any secret the people actually running Europe were trying to cobble a United States of Europe together, first by sharing a currency and then by moving all the decision making to Brussels over time. Of course Italians and Spaniards don't have any desire to become Germans, and vice-versa. The currency part was easy - the "harmonization" part wil…
Indeed. It's hard to "harmonize" countries or regions that don't speak the same language. Workers can't easily move from country to country to take advantage of job opportunities (and thus spread culture through direct interaction), and there's little shared media.
Except lots of workers are doing that right now. And there's a reverse movement of retirees. Maybe the crisis will after all end up faciliarting that harmonazation whose lack caused it...
Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts
#85Earlier quoted context omitted.
It was certainly very convenient for the germans to have some takers for their cheap bonds, but the fact remains that nobody forced the peripheral countries to live beyond their means and to refrain from implementing necessary reforms.
The difference is that in the past, the peripheral countries were able to live beyond their means without such drastic consequences. Too much debt? Devalue the peseta and drachma. Exports increase, imports decrease, unemployment adjusts. Lenders knows that they must charge higher interest rates to those countries. That process can't happen anymore. So the same behavior that was mildly damaging before suddenly became…
I think they fully realized the problem, but did not think it's consequences through enough; there were (and are) fairly stringent rules for entry to the euro zone (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro_convergence_criteria), but were lax in enforcing those rules. There are several reasons for that. Let's say the economy of X is down because it is inherently weak. Do you fine them because of it? Do you think that would help their economy? Also, if half the economies are breaking the rules, how are you going to get a majority in the EU parliament for bringing those fines?
Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts
#86http://www.lietaer.com/2010/03/the-worgl-experiment/ will create millions of new jobs.
Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts
#87Earlier quoted context omitted.
Germany isn't completely innocent here though either, even though it can look like they were frugal during the boom years. From Michael Pettis [1]: The strength of the German economy in recent years has largely to do with its export success. But for Germany to run a large current account surplus – the consequence I would argue of domestic policies aimed at suppressing consumption and subsidizing production – Spain an…
Those who borrow a lot must import a lot. Those who produce more than they consume export what they do not consume. Its simple physics. To produce more than you use is a virtue. Germans are hardly to blame for their virtues. I guess their failure was in lending to those without the means to pay back.
Economics is not a morality play, and from a global perspective, net exports (that is, exporting more than you import) are not a virtue.
Where there is a country that exports more than it imports, there must necessarily be a country that imports more than it exports. That's just simple math.
This trade automatically is reflected in a flow of monetary assets from the importer to the exporter; in this case, a (partially indirect) flow of monetary assets from Spain to e.g. Germany. That's also just simple math.
Speaking as a German, it is incredibly frustrating that this simple insight is almost never acknowledged in public discussion here. There is simply no way the Euro can survive while Germany insists on being a net exporter forever.
What is even more frustrating is that the German elite successfully plays a divide-and-conquer strategy. Most people perceive the Euro crisis as "Germans against the South", whereas in reality, it is the German elite against the German and the Southern people, considering that the German net export "success" has largely been managed by keeping German wages low (when measured against the appropriate benchmark, i.e. productivity).
Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts
#88I -Spaniard here living in Spain- tend not to believe those figures. Also:
1) Hiring is unbelievably costly due to Social Security. 2) Hence you tend to pay "in black". 3) People HAVE TO pay for the Soc Sec even though they do not earn enough for a living. At the very leas, 250 bucks per month whatever your earnings are. 4) We are spectacular liars at polls. Nobody in the black market will say he has a job.
So a grain of salt is required.
EDIT: although the outlook is really really bleak, there is no denying it.
Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts
#89What the is the precedent for austerity? What countries have used it successfully to get out of recession and improve unemployment?
How do you define austerity?
I do define it as living under your possibilities.
Having deficit is not austerity. Having to pay enormous debt and interest of malinvestments of the past bubbles is not austerity(you become debt slave not austere).
Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts
#90What the is the precedent for austerity? What countries have used it successfully to get out of recession and improve unemployment?
Latvia and Estonia have had some success relative to other European economies: http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/12/13/estonia-path-to-... http://www.cnbc.com/id/100558455 http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/08/estonia-latvia-e... https://danieljmitchell.wordpress.com/2012/06/07/estonia-and... (Of course there's debate over the particulars..)
Those countries also have seen huge emigration. Reducing your unemployment rate is probably not that difficult when your labor force shrinks drastically...