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That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

nytimes.com

81–90 of 251 posts

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#81
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's important to remember that causes of death are often also activities which carry utility and even outright life- saving capability. Accidental poisoning, for example, is often due to exposure to cleaning chemicals and drugs which have massively reduced illnesses and deaths. Spending more to make them less accessible may actually be self-defeating, in that it could well cause more deaths than it prevents, by maki…

Simply look at one line of data on anything isn't enough, but it isn't a bad place to start looking at what our actual risks are to see what the numbers on that risk are. Using that as a guide for the first things you should be concerned with helps quite a lot. Looking at the auto stats http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_motor_vehicle_deaths_in... I am not sure I would say massive. But today, we are surrounded by "…

From 25 per 100,000 to 10 per 100,000 is not a massive change? Or, using the more appropriate rate -- fatalities per hundred million vehicle miles traveled -- dropping from ~7 in the 1950s to ~1 today?

Again, the stack rank isn't a bad place to start if you have no other context. But we do. We're well past that point. We all know the NTSB, Auto Companies, Insurance Companies, et al have been hammering on car safety for decades now, have been advancing auto safety about as fast as society will allow and are always conducting newer/better research.

So it remains ill-advised to use that rate (or similar well-studied risks) as some sort of reference point when considering whether a smaller risk is getting outsize attention.

> "The long term trend lines for guns are more now than ever, more concealed carry, and less deaths."

In the 70s, when it became an issue (due in large part to media crusading and 'incident news'), the long-term trends for auto fatalities were also on a downward slope from the highs of the 40s and 50s. Yet, as it turns out, we could still actually do better by allowing research into the issue and taking common-sense precautions.

Similarly with the long term trends around smoking rates, when we finally deigned to allow smoking/cancer/cessation research.

Similarly was Airplane travel, even with a bump from terrorism, the safest way to get from A to B. Yet it remains a good thing that we studied the terrorism 'problem', despite its low risk, and changed air crew procedure and hardened cockpit doors.

And the TSA stuff is nonsense, but it was and remains nonsense precisely because it's not being studied and considered in a sober cost/benefit analysis.

What remains notable about the gun debate in the US, is that we're not arguing about "what to do" so much as arguing about whether to study the problem.

Look at how the trial balloon for the "whether we should study the problem" effort only has some sliver of a chance to succeed, because it's being first aimed at a scapegoat (violent video games). It's not even a direct study of the self-evident real problem (gang violence) or its equally-obvious underlying cause (the war on some people's use of some drugs).

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#82

Author doesn't understand how statistics/probabilities work and it ruins the article. If you roll a dice six times, you have no guarantee to get a six. Each time you roll the dice, you have 1/6th chance of getting a six and this doesn't change no matter how many times you roll. If you roll a dice six times, you have around 66,51% (1-(5/6)^6) chance of getting six at least once. For the same reason, if you have 1/1000…

You're apparently the one who doesn't understand how statistics/probability works. You're correct about his chance of dying once, but there's also a chance of dying twice, a chance of dying 3 times, etc. The expected value of the number of times he would die is 5000(1/1000), or 5. If you replaced "deaths" in your post with "coin flips", this becomes obvious. I'll repeat your post with some different numbers so you ca…

Sorry, I understand what you're trying to say, but I don't think your example serves your point.

I don't think I mixed up expected value and probability of occurrence, if I did please point out where.

You don't care too much about expected value because once the event occurs (death), you can't play anymore...

If you were playing money, on the other hand, expected value would be much more interesting.

I think probability is interesting because if you say "I'll take the shower 2,500 times instead of 5,000" you drop the probability of death to 91.8 % (from 99.9%)...

If you say I'll die on average only 2.5 times you say nothing interesting.

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#83
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's just another example of the "magical natives, so in tune with the natural world" bullshit myth.

I read it as an example of natural selection. The natives who attune themselves to a particular risk, are much less like to die, and more likely to pass along, this particular idea.

Or.. humans in general have evolved the ability to gauge risk and modify their behavior accordingly, long before any humans stepped foot in Papua New Guinea. That this particular culture is more vigilant than others (if in fact that's the case, which I highly doubt) has nothing to do with natural selection. It has to do with culture.

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#84

Author doesn't understand how statistics/probabilities work and it ruins the article. If you roll a dice six times, you have no guarantee to get a six. Each time you roll the dice, you have 1/6th chance of getting a six and this doesn't change no matter how many times you roll. If you roll a dice six times, you have around 66,51% (1-(5/6)^6) chance of getting six at least once. For the same reason, if you have 1/1000…

> Life expectancy for a healthy American man of my age is about 90. (That’s not to be confused with American male life expectancy at birth, only about 78.)

It's interesting that Diamond literally describes the survival function[0], which is usually thought of as E[X|x>=a], but then conflates this with the expected value in the next breath.

I'm confident he understands the difference, but the notion of the survival function is so easy to understand without the underlying statistics (as he explains in two sentences), and provides a much more useful way of conceptualizing statistics. (Expected values of binomial distributions, on the other hand, are highly useful mathematically but difficult to conceptualize without the underlying statistics).

[0]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survival_function

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. I'm pretty sure it was about why and how European civilizations were able to conquer technology and the world, and specifically why many of the developments critical to the rise of European supremacy are not found in other societies. Yes, the judgments made in the book tend to be more fact-based and objective, e.g., a gun is more effective than a spear. It is not a screed extolling the virtues of European civiliz…

> When I say it that way, people understand what it's about and want to read the book. Exactly. All pedants do is push people to hedge, equivocate, and employ dense jargon to throw them off the scent, and where's the help to the rest of us in that?

>hedge, equivocate, and employ dense jargon

Irony?

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#86

Not discussed is how the author's hyper-vigilance impacts his life in the form of stress. Stress kills.

I think hyper-vigilance is a poor choice of words. It's more a habit of thinking than a constant state of conscious alertness. When you become aware of a hazard, it takes conscious effort to avoid putting yourself in the way of that hazard. To take the author's example of sleeping in the jungle under dead trees, when you first become aware of the hazard, you have to stop and look at your campsite before deciding whet…

> I think hyper-vigilance is a poor choice of words

Well, it's his choice of words. You seem to be trying to redefine the article to your liking.

You're right, rules like the curly braces one you mentioned eventually become second nature, such that you don't think about them. That's a "habit of thinking", as you say. That's clearly not what the author is talking about. The author uses words like: "hypervigilant", "obsess about the wrong things", "verging on paranoia", "constructive paranoia", "I remain alert", "I try to think constantly", "being attentive to hazards".

He's talking about an attitude which might very well bring about stress. It beign second nature to add a curly brace after an if statement doesn't.

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#87
post #11

Nothing against New Guineans, but the notion of attributing not sleeping under a dead tree to their specific culture is funny. It's basic risk management of anyone who camps frequently in the backcountry. In fact many learn the 4 W's of concern when picking a campsite- Wind/Weather, Water, Wildlife, and Widowmakers (i.e. a falling tree branch)

Heaven forbid an author write from his experience, and use a vivid illustration, instead of consulting the Compendium Of Facts Of What Every Person Knows and choosing the blandest and most local example.

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#88
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When I say it that way, people understand what it's about and want to read the book. Exactly. All pedants do is push people to hedge, equivocate, and employ dense jargon to throw them off the scent, and where's the help to the rest of us in that?

>hedge, equivocate, and employ dense jargon Irony?

Having a vocabulary that includes the word "equivocate" is distinct from using jargon (specific to a technical field, e.g. chemistry)

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#89

The CDC has keeps statistics on how people in the USA die http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/lcod.htm Looking at the 2011 prelims "Accidents (unintentional injuries)" comes in at #5 with 122,777 deaths and Intentional self-harm (suicide) is at #10 with 38,285. Assault (homicide) is no longer in the top 15. Also, Assault (homicide) by discharge of firearms is 11,101 with all other Assault (homicide) totaling 4,852. To gi…

In 2010 most deaths by firearm were suicides [19,392]. There were 11,000+ homicides by firearm. And 412 deaths from legal intervention by any means. In other words, the person you are most likely to kill with a gun is yourself.

I imagine, also, that if one intends to kill oneself, having a gun or not is not a serious impediment to suicide.

Re: That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer

#90
post #47
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is not lost, but the author does attribute it to a specific culture: >"I first became aware of the New Guineans’ attitude toward risk on a trip into a forest..." >"I now think of New Guineans’ hypervigilant attitude..." >"Traditional New Guineans have to think clearly about dangers....In contrast, Americans’ thinking about dangers is confused." The truth is it's a common, learned attitude of anyone who spen…

It's just another example of the "magical natives, so in tune with the natural world" bullshit myth.

Or maybe it's just where the author happened to learn this. He could have cited the boy scouts if he'd learned it there.
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