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Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

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Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#81

Post by nradov »

reverius42 wrote: post #77
bpodgursky wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion Do you think you can just manifest narratives into existence? Like half of Dario's letter, that kicked off the whole thing today, is about China and how to either beat or coordinate with China.

Seems obvious to me, though, that you can't beat China by pausing when they don't, and China is not likely to coordinate.

China might pretend to coordinate in public but you can assume their secret research labs are racing full speed ahead.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#82

Post by bix6 »

bpodgursky wrote: post #60
drTobiasFunke wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? My employer rolled back to opus 4.8 because 5 was expensive AND crap. Didnt even consider fable because it didn’t add any additional value. For most software eng and design work opus 4.6-4.8 just works fine. For everyday joe asking ai to plan a trip or home diy work even sonnet works fine. Any cybersecurity or other areas are niches that cannot support trillion $ valuations. What am I missing? Genuinely curio…

If Fable doesn't add additional value in your workplace, it means you aren't being ambitious enough in how you integrate agents into your workstream. Yes, it's probably comparable to 4.8 if you are just using it to write code and put up a couple pull requests. That's not where things are now.

And where are things now?

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#83

Post by nradov »

bpodgursky wrote: post #60
drTobiasFunke wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? My employer rolled back to opus 4.8 because 5 was expensive AND crap. Didnt even consider fable because it didn’t add any additional value. For most software eng and design work opus 4.6-4.8 just works fine. For everyday joe asking ai to plan a trip or home diy work even sonnet works fine. Any cybersecurity or other areas are niches that cannot support trillion $ valuations. What am I missing? Genuinely curio…

If Fable doesn't add additional value in your workplace, it means you aren't being ambitious enough in how you integrate agents into your workstream. Yes, it's probably comparable to 4.8 if you are just using it to write code and put up a couple pull requests. That's not where things are now.

You shouldn't be down voted, AI native companies have already moved up to the next level beyond writing individual PRs.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#84

Post by eru »

0xcde4c3db wrote: post #64
lukan wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure about the level of irony here, but I keep hearing models have plateaued since a while now, but I keep being impressed with the latest model performance.

I don't think "plateaued" is the right word, but I do feel like there's been something like a logistic curve compression in the difference between smaller and larger models as the field evolves. For inference at least, the scale of practical difference between a single high-VRAM GPU or SFF UMA box, a whole rack, and a whole data center seems to be falling far short of what we might have imagined just a few years ago.…

Maybe, though that's another kind of progress in itself. Very impressive progress!

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#85

Post by reilly3000 »

nradov wrote: post #81
reverius42 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems obvious to me, though, that you can't beat China by pausing when they don't, and China is not likely to coordinate.

China might pretend to coordinate in public but you can assume their secret research labs are racing full speed ahead.

Mutually assured destruction has worked fine for 80 years, why stop now?

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#86

Post by bpodgursky »

nradov wrote: post #81
reverius42 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems obvious to me, though, that you can't beat China by pausing when they don't, and China is not likely to coordinate.

China might pretend to coordinate in public but you can assume their secret research labs are racing full speed ahead.

While it's an extremely hard problem, it's not completely unsolvable because there are a finite number of GPUs on the planet capable of doing frontier model development, and they use a lot of power. The vast majority of them could be tracked. China and the US could agree to joint monitoring and they could each verify what ~95% of the other's compute power was up to.

A lab of researchers without compute isn't going to accomplish much, there is a huge physical footprint unlike bioweapons research. But, the political aspect is unsolved.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#87

Post by eru »

qskousen wrote: post #63
unleashhale wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anything in particular? My experience has been like seeing the addition of retractable cupholders, but maybe different domains.

I have a pet project I have been working away on for some time that involves building GPU backends for various cards in Zig, lots of complex stuff in it. Lately I mostly use Opus 5, it can pretty reliably plug away at things but it does mess stuff up occasionally. For this codebase, Fable 5.1 was noticeably better at getting things right and doing things in a good reliable way. Of course, I can only use Fable for a b…

I really liked codex in the last few weeks, especially its ability to clean up after Claude's (prose) messes and do reviews.

But in the last few days something seems to have happened that made Codex's models massively stupider (for what I am doing).

Really weirdly, it suddenly refused to even run tests it previously wrote itself (and previously ran), because of some false positive about cybersecurity.

That by itself is not evidence of stupidity. Trying to make a 200+ file PR full of research notes is, and the PR didn't even solve the problem I asked it to.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#88

Post by m4rtink »

AaronAPU wrote: post #27

They are talking about slowing down the public facing AI development. Because then nation states can create a capabilities gap between them and the public. Why does nobody seem to be pointing out this obvious explanation? It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion. The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis, getting them all behind the public…

In some cases, such as space exploration I don't really care who does it but that it happens - sure, would be nice if my favorite power block did it but I will still celebrate it when someone else achives it.

Can still be a powerful motivation, to make sure that next time, it yous your camp that scores the next milestone, like an orbital elevator or fox ears, for example.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#89

Post by timr »

reilly3000 wrote: post #85
nradov wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China might pretend to coordinate in public but you can assume their secret research labs are racing full speed ahead.

Mutually assured destruction has worked fine for 80 years, why stop now?

I don’t know if you’re being facetious, but last time I checked, the world had not been destroyed by glob thermonuclear war.

So yeah, it has worked.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#90

Post by nozzlegear »

bpodgursky wrote: post #60
drTobiasFunke wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? My employer rolled back to opus 4.8 because 5 was expensive AND crap. Didnt even consider fable because it didn’t add any additional value. For most software eng and design work opus 4.6-4.8 just works fine. For everyday joe asking ai to plan a trip or home diy work even sonnet works fine. Any cybersecurity or other areas are niches that cannot support trillion $ valuations. What am I missing? Genuinely curio…

If Fable doesn't add additional value in your workplace, it means you aren't being ambitious enough in how you integrate agents into your workstream. Yes, it's probably comparable to 4.8 if you are just using it to write code and put up a couple pull requests. That's not where things are now.

This is just "you're holding it wrong" with a little smooch of condescension. If only we plebeians could comprehend what magnificent works those who have ambitiously integrated agents into the workstream have wrought!
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