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The US Used to Demand the Best Tech. Now We Ban It

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Re: The US Used to Demand the Best Tech. Now We Ban It

#81

Post by missedthecue »

rgbrenner wrote: post #34

US bans are based on the incorrect idea that we have control over AI. But the ban only reduces the most advanced model available from US companies. Models from other countries continue development. It's as if the US decided to hit pause on competing on AI and we're just going to let someone else win it. The US could be using these models to fix bugs and defend out systems.. but instead, we're all waiting for open sou…

I agree this will slow US development but what does "win the AI race" mean? What's the finish line? If there was a finish line, say a model that met some definition of general intelligence, wouldn't other labs eventually reach it too? Does getting there 6 months sooner actually mean anything in terms of say, the 5, 20, 50, 100 year view?

Re: The US Used to Demand the Best Tech. Now We Ban It

#82

Post by pinnola »

missedthecue wrote: post #81
rgbrenner wrote: post #34

US bans are based on the incorrect idea that we have control over AI. But the ban only reduces the most advanced model available from US companies. Models from other countries continue development. It's as if the US decided to hit pause on competing on AI and we're just going to let someone else win it. The US could be using these models to fix bugs and defend out systems.. but instead, we're all waiting for open sou…

I agree this will slow US development but what does "win the AI race" mean? What's the finish line? If there was a finish line, say a model that met some definition of general intelligence, wouldn't other labs eventually reach it too? Does getting there 6 months sooner actually mean anything in terms of say, the 5, 20, 50, 100 year view?

This is more about having the most powerful AI company based in the US, rather than abroad. If the US pauses AI development, the rest of the world will lock in with non-US AI providers who capture the market first

Re: The US Used to Demand the Best Tech. Now We Ban It

#83

Post by bryanlarsen »

johnea wrote: post #56
JimsonYang wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Youre right, i forgot to add 4) europeans are environemtally conscious Americans however like their gas guzzling F150s. The reason I did the original comment was I know for a time the major car companies did a huge push into EVs. Like the ford 150 lightning, chevy bolt and mustang mach E. But they stopped manufacturing them due to weakened sales and profitability. Its a vicious feedback loop of consumer adoption, hig…

I don't think the jump in EV sales in Europe are primarily driven by environment consciousness. The jump in EV sales this year are primarily driven by seeing what a psycho in the US whitehouse can immediately do to gasoline prices. Gasoline only comes from one source., and is largely delivered around the world by shipping. Electricity is able to be generated by many means, and is available everywhere. I know several…

I think a large part of it is just EV's getting good & cheap. You can get a quite good EV for £15,000 now.

Re: The US Used to Demand the Best Tech. Now We Ban It

#84

Post by WorldMaker »

JimsonYang wrote: post #10

>Americans watch the rest of the world getting better, cheaper, ... If we wanted cheap cars, there needs to be demand to justify building giga factories of EVs. There just wasnt sufficient consumer demand to justify the giga factory investments China CAN generate demand for EVs because they have the political ability to 1) force gas restricted cars to only drive on certain days of the week 2) create a brutal lottery…

This US didn't really do Option 3, even, because it added EV subsidies but never removed gas subsidies. The gas subsidies in the US still tip the scale in favor of gas more so than EV subsidies were able to help counter.

Re: The US Used to Demand the Best Tech. Now We Ban It

#85

Post by C6JEsQeQa5fCjE »

missedthecue wrote: post #81
rgbrenner wrote: post #34

US bans are based on the incorrect idea that we have control over AI. But the ban only reduces the most advanced model available from US companies. Models from other countries continue development. It's as if the US decided to hit pause on competing on AI and we're just going to let someone else win it. The US could be using these models to fix bugs and defend out systems.. but instead, we're all waiting for open sou…

I agree this will slow US development but what does "win the AI race" mean? What's the finish line? If there was a finish line, say a model that met some definition of general intelligence, wouldn't other labs eventually reach it too? Does getting there 6 months sooner actually mean anything in terms of say, the 5, 20, 50, 100 year view?

> Does getting there 6 months sooner actually mean anything in terms of say, the 5, 20, 50, 100 year view?

You then use the power of AGI to keep everyone else down, economically and militarily. Billions of AGI-controlled drones patrolling the Earth and enforcing your supremacy. Yes, the future is grim and dystopian.

If one thinks this is farfetched, they aren't paying attention to geopolitics.

Re: The US Used to Demand the Best Tech. Now We Ban It

#86

Post by stasomatic »

Animats wrote: post #40

Cars and solar panels get hit the hardest with tariffs and restrictions. Solar panels: [1] Cars: [2] More devices are being hit by US digital sovereignty rules. Most US talk about this revolves around the EU not allowing processing of data about EU citizens outside the EU. It's now a big issue for US customers, too. The US is applying it to many classes of devices. For cars, there's the “Connected Vehicles Rule”.[3]…

Isn't this just a game? Play/obey/pretend and we will pretend back or GTFO?

Re: The US Used to Demand the Best Tech. Now We Ban It

#87

Post by WarmWash »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #77
WarmWash wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The public will get ~5.5 level models. Private industry will essentially get ITAR access to better models, and other countries will get 5.5 with maybe some select partners getting access. Its totally sensible that the US will keep strong AI to itself to boost its own industry. (ITAR is a very low bar, but you need to be a citizen and your employer must fill out some forms.)

Its totally sensible that the US will keep strong AI to itself to boost its own industry. No, it isn't. What in the world would lead you to think that will be an option? Anything we develop can and will be duplicated elsewhere and distributed widely.

If I told you money gets disturbed widely, you would obviously balk.

So what could possibly lead you to think power will be distributed widely?

Re: The US Used to Demand the Best Tech. Now We Ban It

#89

Post by WarmWash »

danmaz74 wrote: post #79
WarmWash wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The public will get ~5.5 level models. Private industry will essentially get ITAR access to better models, and other countries will get 5.5 with maybe some select partners getting access. Its totally sensible that the US will keep strong AI to itself to boost its own industry. (ITAR is a very low bar, but you need to be a citizen and your employer must fill out some forms.)

According to this logic, Taiwan should keep the most advanced chips to itself, the EU should keep the most advanced chip lithography machines to itself, etc etc.

I mean, yeah they could. But what they get back for exporting is more than it is worth to them alone. Taiwan has no use for huge amounts of silicon and Europe has no use for SOTA lithography.

I don't see how that is the case with the US and leading edge AI. The US has a lot of use for that, and on balance, I cannot think of anything that is more valuable than super intelligent AI. It's basically the end game power for the human race.

Countries could try what essentially amounts to unilateral sanctions on the US to try and force sharing, but it's unlikely it would go well.

By the way, China will lock it's super smart AI in house too.

This isn't a new idea either, both the US and China have technology already that they keep to themselves.

Re: The US Used to Demand the Best Tech. Now We Ban It

#90

Post by malshe »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #52
malshe wrote: post #38

I've said this before and I will say it again. I don't see any problem in allowing Chinese cars in the US if China manufactures them here under a 49:51 joint venture with an American company. Also, I'm not sure how long CCP will keep on bankrolling their car companies. They are now competing with each other pushing the profits lower. Over the last year BYD stock is down 40%. Take a look at their auto manufacturers in…

The administration disagrees with you, having just banned the made in South Carolina PoleStar vehicles

It's unfortunate indeed.
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