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Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

businessinsider.com

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Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#81

Post by surgical_fire »

hparadiz wrote: post #51
tlakshgf wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does revenue have to do with it? Mercedes has a revenue of $130 billion, profit of $5 billion and a market cap of $56 billion. According to your logic, it should have a market cap of $2.6 trillion. Conservative is to look at P/E, which is 10 for Mercedes. Anthropic isn't even a growth stock, since it has already been force fed to everyone with one of the largest marketing and coercion campaigns in history.

I've had economics professors tell me that a "normal" business valuation is 10 years of profit so your example is in line with my thinking there. I'm just as curious to see the final numbers as you but if they are even approaching them it's not very out there to consider a high valuation. I don't wish to speculate on what the numbers actually are. I want to see them too.

Anthropic has negative profit. There are rumors they had one quarter of profit with some accounting shenanigans.

It also has no path to become profitable.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#82

Post by sourcecodeplz »

whazor wrote: post #16

I think you could argue Anthropic could be worth $1T. With AI becoming an essential work utility, every global knowledge worker would want a claude subscription. There are 650M to 1B of such office workers. 300M workers × $50/month × 12 = $180B/year. The genie is not going back into the bottle, I have seen what claude code can do when properly connected to tools. But Micheals arguments are valid. There could be compe…

I code 8+ hours days with Deepseek V4 flash and it costs me under $1 per day... I dont know how they will charge so much for a sub.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#84

Post by mapt »

potatototoo99 wrote: post #14
hparadiz wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anthropic is the one company where that makes no sense. If revenue really is about 50 billion annually and growing than that means that a 20x 1 year of revenue valuation is modest compared to the shenanigans that have been going in the market. It's almost classically textbook conservative in comparison. The moat with these corporate enterprise contracts is literally your conversation history and companies aren't like…

We know nothing about Anthropic, they make a few money go round deals, announce a bit of revenue, extrapolate it into the whole year and people parrot that they may be making $50bn. Most likely the cost to remain competitive eats at whatever revenue they could hope to make. I expect them to fudge the numbers the last quarter before their IPO, dump on passive investors, and then go back to being officially unprofitabl…

As of March 2026 lifetime revenue was >=~ $5 billion, and total 2025 revenue was supposedly around $4.5 billion.

https://www.wheresyoured.at/anthropics-profitability-swindle...

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#85

Post by deepserket »

ghtbircshotbe wrote: post #63
bumby wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you elaborate on how passive investing contributes to this?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33493662

note that the comments on that post were written in the middle of the 2022 bear market, that's why the tone is more depressed than average.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#86

Post by 10xDev »

iso1631 wrote: post #73

Doesn't matter, it will go into the nasdaq/s&p at $1t, passive funds will have to buy it at that price, meaning a wealth transfer from 401ks to people with pre-ipo stock The only reason AI is worth $1T is if you believe it will continue to get better and displace all those jobs, not just in claude replacing knowlege workers, but in the outcome of that work being so transformational that physical work is also replaced…

The belief (for some) is that it will create new jobs like previous revolutions. No one has said what those will look like yet though.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#87

Post by bpt3 »

iso1631 wrote: post #78
bpt3 wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am explicitly avoiding these indices until this exploit is fixed. The lack of diversity in SPY and the like is already bad enough without these pump and dump schemes being added to the mix. Buy alternative ETFs with similar performance and low fees. VIG is one example.

Not great when every other share price collapses as they get sold as funds are rebalanced. Almost every stock in VIG is in the S&P.

The "almost" portion of your statement is the entire point, and re-balancing isn't going to cause "every other share price to collapse".

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#88

Post by simianwords »

enraged_camel wrote: post #58
l23k4 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you live in a cave? I guess not. Do you have access to the internet? Seemingly yes. The booms just tend to be much bigger than the busts.

The internet absolutely went bust. That’s what the dotcom crash was. Same with a lot of physical infrastructure. The UK has a robust railroad network today, but it was built during a bubble that was so insane people would take loans from banks to invest in railroad stocks.

> The internet absolutely went bust

How does it matter to you? If you had invested in Internet broadly, you would have been WAY better off in the long term. Meaning: your strategy had been to keep investments tied to Internet first companies, you would have done better than pretty much any other person.

Things go up and down but broadly internet went up.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#89

Post by alberto467 »

sourcecodeplz wrote: post #82
whazor wrote: post #16

I think you could argue Anthropic could be worth $1T. With AI becoming an essential work utility, every global knowledge worker would want a claude subscription. There are 650M to 1B of such office workers. 300M workers × $50/month × 12 = $180B/year. The genie is not going back into the bottle, I have seen what claude code can do when properly connected to tools. But Micheals arguments are valid. There could be compe…

I code 8+ hours days with Deepseek V4 flash and it costs me under $1 per day... I dont know how they will charge so much for a sub.

Well... $1 a day is not that far from that hypothetical $50 a month though. Especially if it gives you access to significantly more powerful models (which it does).

EDIT: i still find absurd thinking that all those subscription would go to a single company, let me be clear. But that $50 price doesn't sound unreasonable at all.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#90

Post by idiotsecant »

Eddy_Viscosity2 wrote: post #65
bumby wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People have seen others make insane, life changing money at this slot machine and are wanting to take their chances. Isn’t this the exact same sentiment from the late 1920s when people were making “insane, life changing” money by buying equities on margin?

This time is different. It may well though, because now we have an automatic buy from the government to 'fix' the market if it 'breaks'. The line goes up.

That just means it's like the 1920s even harder, just on a time delay fuse
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