[flagged]
I couldn't make heads or tails of that prose.
because it's AI slop
Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
81–90 of 167 posts
Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#82Earlier quoted context omitted.
I have a dumbed down version of this question as variant of the Voight-Kampff test (Bladerunner) that goes like this. You have 2 choices for how the world is shaped, pick 1: A. You have a modest but comfortable home, a job that pays you enough so that you have what you need and can afford occasional luxuries (e.g., an annual holiday abroad), have good health insurance, access to education and childcare, etc. Everybod…
I think most people want to earn more the harder they work, and I think that is fine. However, power laws basically spoil it because it gives a hard worker an exponential advantage, where they can (and will) use that money against other people who made different life choices.
there is the other (significant) issue, that wealth (and its many benefits) are inherited, and by all indications the exponential advantage seems to pass down through generations (at least recently).
Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#83[flagged]
I don't know why cross venue arbitrage would be unskilled? There's a lot of it for the taking and I, and others, do so.
Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#84Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#85Earlier quoted context omitted.
these apps should load with this pie chart showing your likelihood of ever making a profit based on what they know about you. "YOU WILL LOSE MONEY ON THIS APP". Like the cigarette packs.
Just look at lotteries. I don't believe in them because when you consider operational costs, less money comes out of the lottery than goes in, so if everyone simply didn't bet on the lottery, they would have more money than if they bet on it. But everyone who bets thinks "but what if I win?"
at least the lotteries and las vegas publish their odds. Losing to the terrible math is probably better than playing against someone with inside information.
Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#86Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#87Earlier quoted context omitted.
I mean, do we want the economy to be stable? Not in a 'oh the rich don't so they control the media and so we don't' sorta way. But like in a 'lets educate people on the pluses and minuses, debate a while, and then come to an informed conclusion' sorta way. Like, deep down, does the average person actually want a stable economy? Because it seems to me that there is an even split historically between the folks that wan…
I have a dumbed down version of this question as variant of the Voight-Kampff test (Bladerunner) that goes like this. You have 2 choices for how the world is shaped, pick 1: A. You have a modest but comfortable home, a job that pays you enough so that you have what you need and can afford occasional luxuries (e.g., an annual holiday abroad), have good health insurance, access to education and childcare, etc. Everybod…
I really hate to call people stupid, but I would actually go ahead and call people who choose option B idiots.
I'm sorry if that offends anyone reading this, you can downvote me out of spite if that makes you feel better.
I say this because I read a while ago (like years) an article in the Economist showing that happiness in a society is correlated with equality - (sorry for the dash I am a human I just happen to use em dashes sometimes) not just amongst the poor, but also for the rich.
You'll note that rich people in highly unequal societies tend to struggle with mental illness more than in equal societies.
Money doesn't buy happiness. Being filthy rich won't heal the hurt in your heart. If you're too stupid too realize that, that's fine, enjoy your suffering, but I'd appreciate you having the honesty to admit that you're a deluded moron instead of trying to create completely false arguments for why the misery you're creating for yourself and others is actually a sign of anything less than pure human stupidity.
I couldn't find the original Economist article, nor the study it cited, but here's a link I found on Google.
https://leftfootforward.org/2017/03/people-are-happier-in-mo...
Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#88Earlier quoted context omitted.
Take a look at the user's history, it's more obvious in context. It has a lot of claude-specific tells which are noticeable if you've spent time working with claude. AI-generated comments are against the HN guidelines https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html#generated
Maybe the guidelines should be changed? Something about: don’t complain about comments just because they’re AI.
Yes, just like the "don't say HN is becoming reddit" rule. If you think it's AI downvote or flag and move on, reading "this is AI" over and over all over the internet without any substantiation is tiresome.
Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#89Earlier quoted context omitted.
The stock market is arguably zero sum as well, just that directionally betting on the US has generally worked during the golden years of the US economy. The stock markets of the world aren't a money printer.
The stock market is not in the least zero sum. That's just a fundamental misunderstanding. There's dividends, capital allocation, etc.
There is only so much real money in the world, and that is determined by the Treasuries and Feds of the world. There are only so many dollars that were ever created, so many Japanese yen that were ever created, and so many Turkish lira that were ever created.
The stock market is a wealth redistribution mechanism, not a money printer. Market caps going up are not equal to money being created. It's not like the shareholders could collectively cash out all of that market cap and spend it. If everyone sold all of their stocks and pulled fully out of the stock market until everything crashed to $0, everyone's cash would still sum to whatever the government printed.
Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#90Earlier quoted context omitted.
I have a dumbed down version of this question as variant of the Voight-Kampff test (Bladerunner) that goes like this. You have 2 choices for how the world is shaped, pick 1: A. You have a modest but comfortable home, a job that pays you enough so that you have what you need and can afford occasional luxuries (e.g., an annual holiday abroad), have good health insurance, access to education and childcare, etc. Everybod…
I think most people want to earn more the harder they work, and I think that is fine. However, power laws basically spoil it because it gives a hard worker an exponential advantage, where they can (and will) use that money against other people who made different life choices.
> power laws basically spoil it because it gives a hard worker an exponential advantage
s/hard worker/person with more capital/
I can make 500 euros from a day of consulting as a software engineer. That's a typical day, working remotely, 9AM to 5PM, with a nice long lunch break.
Minimum wage in Bangladesh is around $133 per month. Many workers in the Bangladesh garment industry work 12 hour days. I look at what they do, and think "wow that's really hard I could never do that, glad I don't have to work that hard to live".
Yet somehow, I have exponentially more money than they do. And, thanks to the beauty of our current system, I can go ahead and invest that in the stock market, and get even richer while basically doing nothing.
It would be nice if we lived in a word that rewarded hard work, but as far as I can tell, we don't, and never have.
Look at the institution of slavery. For literally thousands of years, there was "those who worked", and "those who had".
The system rewards decision making, not hard work.
Now, if you're a young tech worker working on an important project at a big company, yes, choosing to work hard, IN THAT SPECIFIC CASE is a good decision, and it'll be rewarded.
But if you're a child laborer in a Third World sweatshop? No, your extra hour at the office probably won't get you anything extra.
If you're a Roman Senator in the year 30BC, you don't get rewarded for your work, you get rewarded for deciding to have your slaves spend more time farming grapes for wine and less farming wheat because wine sells for a higher price, which means that with your good decision making, you can now hire more slaves, to farm more grapes, to make more wine, which you can make for more money.
And if you look at rich people today, what they have is probably closer to the Roman Senator than the Third World sweatshop laborer - they find a thing that people like to buy, and invest lots of resources (their money, other people's labor) into making that thing and selling it, and are rewarded with money.