Germany has become the largest ammunition producer in the world • Hacker News Board

Re: Germany has become the largest ammunition producer in the world

#81

Post by cramsession » Thu, Apr 30, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

tgsovlerkhgsel wrote: post #59

bitvvip wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a crazy world. Everyone should stay away from war

If your neighbor decides not to, the only way for you to stay away from the war is to have weapons to kill them before they get to you... (Of course, the best solution to an aggressive neighbor is to have so many weapons that they know they would die if they attacked, so they don't even try.) It only starts to be a problem is when your government starts using those weapons in wars of aggression. Among Western democra…

> It only starts to be a problem is when your government starts using those weapons in wars of aggression. Among Western democracies, only the US comes to mind...

Israel (which Germany is providing weapons to) does nothing but attack its neighbors. A good portion of the imperialist aggression coming from the US is also done on Israel's behalf. Germany is certainly complicit in this.

Re: Germany has become the largest ammunition producer in the world

#82

Post by cramsession » Thu, Apr 30, 2026, 12:29 AM UTC

ngruhn wrote: post #53

bitvvip wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a crazy world. Everyone should stay away from war

Unfortunately that's the default state of the world. The comparatively peaceful post WW2 period was the weird thing.

We killed millions in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. I don't think you can call it peaceful, more that "the west" exported its violence outside the borders of Europe and the US.

Re: Germany has become the largest ammunition producer in the world

#83

Post by jyounker » Thu, Apr 30, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC

sashank_1509 wrote: post #31

cromka wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a Pole: it was bad before they stepped up. I am happy to see Germany becoming a stronger force in the region.

Maybe your thoughts will change if they invade you again a few elections later

I live in Germany. My roommate is Polish. I have friends who are Polish. Poles are infinitely more afraid of the Russians.

Re: Germany has become the largest ammunition producer in the world

#84

Post by deepsun » Thu, Apr 30, 2026, 12:31 AM UTC

bee_rider wrote: post #28

arjie wrote: post #17

I always wonder about these production numbers in the military. The US has a large military complex and Germany is an industrial power and North Korea is a small military autocracy suffering from raw material shortages, but Googling around I see[0]: > The expert also said that the North’s annual production estimate of 2 million 152-millimeter artillery shells is premised on peacetime manufacturing rates. But here Ger…

Maybe the article is counting the “medium-caliber ammunition” as well; Germany seems to have boosted that quite significantly. > medium-caliber ammunition from 800,000 to 4,000,000, and artillery shells from 70,000 to 1,100,000 Of course it isn’t really obvious that this would be an apples-to-apples comparison (I suspect it isn’t). Then again it isn’t obvious that a NK artillery shell is an apples-to-apples compariso…

Parent comment says explicitly about 152mm, that's the main caliber in NK and Russia.

In general, it's ok to compare main calibers (152mm or 155mm), as other calibers are usually produced in roughly the same proportions.

Re: Germany has become the largest ammunition producer in the world

#85

Post by jrumbut » Thu, Apr 30, 2026, 12:32 AM UTC

wildzzz wrote: post #61

jandrewrogers wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US doesn't use that much artillery as a matter of tactics. A significant portion of their capacity exists to support other countries. Artillery is suited for combat with clear lines of confrontation. US doctrine actively tilts the battlefield so that these lines don't form, which plays to their strengths.

Ukraine is an excellent reminder that trench warfare sucks and is a manpower and resource drain for both sides. One guy in a fighter jet is probably 1000000x more effective than a guy in a trench. One guided munition has the capability to decapitate an entire government.

We are also protected on both sides by an ocean. If Canada and Mexico were hostile powers then we would be investing more in artillery shells and less in fighter jets.

Germany and North Korea are accessible by land to hostile powers, so their situation is very different.

Re: Germany has become the largest ammunition producer in the world

#86

Post by jcgrillo » Thu, Apr 30, 2026, 12:36 AM UTC

vkou wrote: post #37

arjie wrote: post #17

I always wonder about these production numbers in the military. The US has a large military complex and Germany is an industrial power and North Korea is a small military autocracy suffering from raw material shortages, but Googling around I see[0]: > The expert also said that the North’s annual production estimate of 2 million 152-millimeter artillery shells is premised on peacetime manufacturing rates. But here Ger…

The US spends much of its defense budget on building expensive high-tech toys and maintaining 11 carrier strike groups, because it's military priorities are, in decreasing priority: * Making sure everyone loses a MAD nuclear war * Maintaining undisputed naval dominance in five oceans. * Bombing people on its imperial adventures all around the world. * Offering security and protection in exchange for military and econ…

> any asshole with a basic understanding of a lathe and undergrad chemistry knowledge could conceivably run a munitions plant

This makes artillery production fundamentally, physically different from nuclear bombs/subs/carriers or fighter jets too. The supply chain is highly distributive. You can choose to have thousands of distributed small factories each churning out artillery shells. They're pretty damn simple, and the materials and machinery input isn't very sophisticated. Contrast with the complexity of a modern aircraft carrier, submarine, fighter jet, or a nuclear weapon. That supply chain is far more vulnerable. So not only is it a lot cheaper, it's also a hell of a lot more durable.

Re: Germany has become the largest ammunition producer in the world

#87

Post by tristanj » Thu, Apr 30, 2026, 12:37 AM UTC

oezi wrote: post #71

tristanj wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine has essentially moved-on from artillery to drones, just last month (March 2026) drones caused 96% of Russian casualties. Artillery and small arms fire accounted for the rest. Also, artillery has a maximum effective range of ~30km. Ukraine's drone kill-zone is 20km and with newer drones pushing to 50-100km. By next year it won't even possible to bring artillery and a large number of shells into the frontlines…

Of the confirmed casualties. Much easier to give kill numbers if you have video evidence from a drone. Doesn't mean that artillery strikes are any less lethal even though they don't give such clear confirmation pictures.

This isn't correct at all. Artillery strikes are near-universally drone assisted, meaning there is a surveillance drone recording the strike and calling the exact target coordinates.

Any casualties from artillery strikes would be recorded by drone, and added to the total casualty statistics.

Re: Germany has become the largest ammunition producer in the world

#88

Post by jrumbut » Thu, Apr 30, 2026, 12:43 AM UTC

julianeon wrote: post #52

heyheyhouhou wrote: post #23

German industry is changing a lot loosing against China, so they have been moving to war related stuff for the past years. Personally, I know a bunch of people who were offered get transferred from VW to a military drone company. On one side I understand that manufacturing a lot of weapons could be somehow a protection for the future, but also Germany provides a lot of ammunition to Israel that is killing thousands o…

In the US and Germany, economists say that war and defense companies have to pay a "social stigma premium" since average people don't really like to work there given equal wages. The premium is a revealed preference: even people who wouldn't articulate a moral objection are implicitly expressing one through their labor market behavior. So if you look at how they behave, it seems that many people agree.

I work for a non-defense government employer and my working conditions are so much better than my friends and relatives who did the same job in defense.

I have never gotten searched, neither my car nor my person, at work. I don't need elaborate and heavily monitored setups to work remotely. I didn't have to take a polygraph or answer detailed questions about my past to get or keep my job.

Also, my employer can hire people who actively use cannabis and people without citizenship which expands the labor pool substantially. My workplace does not have a 30 minute line for security when I arrive.

Not all those things apply to every defense but many do and I would want a premium if I had to deal with them. Also the customer for defense goods is not very sensitive to price but is often extremely sensitive to quality and/or timeline.

Re: Germany has become the largest ammunition producer in the world

#89

Post by wahern » Thu, Apr 30, 2026, 12:46 AM UTC

tristanj wrote: post #33

LarsDu88 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You haven't seen the drone videos where they drop artillery shells from drones? Or the vast webs of fiber optic cables strewn across crater filled Ukrainian farmland from the necessitated by the massive amount of drone jamming and crowding of RF channels? Artillery is still queen of the battlefield regardless of what highlight reels from r/CombatFootage would have you believe.

> the drone videos where they drop artillery shells from drones No, Ukraine does not drop artillery shells from drones. They typically drop VOG-17/25 grenade launcher rounds or RGD-5/F-1 fragmentation grenades, neither of which are considered artillery shells. > the vast webs of fiber optic cables strewn across crater filled Ukrainian farmland That's massive evidence for using drones over artillery. Why do we see fie…

> Only 15% is going into artillery and ammunition.

That simply reflects, in part, the cost differential. It's difficult to find the most recent data, but as of mid 2025 and, AFAICT, still today, Ukraine and Russia were still exchanging 10,000+ shells every day. Moreover, Russia fires 5 shells for every 1 Ukrainian shell. It used to be 10:1. It's a huge reason Ukraine can't break through Russian lines, and during offenses hold off Russian advances. Ukraine still has major supply issues with shells, and that's also likely one reason for their emphasis on drones. It's certainly the reason Germany and others are still pursuing increased artillery production.

Ceteris paribus, the marginal effectiveness of deploying more drones may be superior to more artillery, but that's against the backdrop of existing artillery usage. If Ukraine switched to only drones, they'd lose the war in weeks if not days.

Re: Germany has become the largest ammunition producer in the world

#90

Post by tristanj » Thu, Apr 30, 2026, 12:47 AM UTC

lopsotronic wrote: post #41

tristanj wrote: post #3

Germany is producing weapons to fight the last war. WWIII will be fought with drones, not artillery. They should invest part of this money into becoming the leader in drone manufacturing, not this. Since it's Germany, the money for this manufacturing ramp-up was probably allocated around 2023-2024, when older artillery was needed and before drone superiority was obvious. So maybe this is the expected outcome. If the…

It's going to be both, and it's because of physics. At this moment, the best way to put kinetic energy into an enemy is sticking some quantity of explosive on them. You have a few ways of going about this. Two we consider today: 1) a chemical charge launches a block of explosive ballistically at a closing range of mach 2-5, 2) a complex assembly of plastic/rare earths/silicon/PCBAs flies over to the enemy at somewher…

Traditionally artillery shells (155mm as discussed in the article) have a maximum effective range of 30km. That means that the artillery vehicle can only function within 30km of the front line.

Drones have dramatically changed this equation. The current drone "kill zone", which used to be several km from the front line, is now 15-25km deep, and Ukraine is pushing this to 50-100km. That means artillery cannot operate without being targeted by FPV drones. It is also becoming logistically difficult to supply the large number of artillery shells needed without getting struck.

Once the kill-zone reaches 30km, which it will by 2027, artillery will be completely useless.